February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MarcmmKU]

7 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Yikes

good for ski country plus it washes away the nasty salt. fine by me

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Just saw on the memories in my Iphone, today in 2017 was a blizzard for many of us. Was in the 60s the day before, 2/8/17, with a winter storm watch for 8-12" of snow for the next day. I remember how many people in my inner circle couldn't believe it would snow the next day. Precip started out as rain around 40 degrees around 4 am, and then temps crashed and it was snowing by 5:30 or so. Very heavy snow all morning, 9-12" here in NYC, and a blizzard just to the east of us. Great storm, followed by deep cold. 

The snow was blinding at times.

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm 

You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us

[the_other_guy]

As I was driving past Little Neck Bay today I was amazed to see the whole thing frozen. I havent seen that in years.

And then I was floored to see it frozen thru the Throgs Neck Bridge. I have never seen that!

Over the past few weeks I have been playing whack a mole with frozen pipes. I dont want warmth yet but normal 30s day 20s night will feel…good

[coastalplainsnowman]

Took this pic from Jersey City looking across the Hudson.  Actually been checking over the past week and was disappointed to see not much ice.  But today there was, and tomorrow will probably look better.

 

[NyWxGuy]

29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us

Seems like ever since the great 2018 winter, we’ve only had one good winter (2021). 2019 wasn’t too far off, and we just need one more storm to get to average here. Maybe it’s a one decade cycle. Hopefully lol

[NyWxGuy]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

As I was driving past Little Neck Bay today I was amazed to see the whole thing frozen. I havent seen that in years.

And then I was floored to see it frozen thru the Throgs Neck Bridge. I have never seen that!

Over the past few weeks I have been playing whack a mole with frozen pipes. I dont want warmth yet but normal 30s day 20s night will feel…good

Yeah you could tell the ice was thick from Douglaston all the way through Bayside and Whitestone and even frozen underneath the bridge. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NyWxGuy said:

Just saw on the memories in my Iphone, today in 2017 was a blizzard for many of us. Was in the 60s the day before, 2/8/17, with a winter storm watch for 8-12" of snow for the next day. I remember how many people in my inner circle couldn't believe it would snow the next day. Precip started out as rain around 40 degrees around 4 am, and then temps crashed and it was snowing by 5:30 or so. Very heavy snow all morning, 9-12" here in NYC, and a blizzard just to the east of us. Great storm, followed by deep cold. 

I remember that one, was a fun event in Nassau County. I think I had 10” or so. Was one of those that blew up for NYC and NE into New England. 

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us

I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. 

[WX-PA]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. 

August 10th?..sun is equivalent to  late October today..August 10th is late April

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

young men are failing out of school like crazy. i know lots of them. hence the efforts to stem the flow. my friend's daughter is in med school and can practically count the males on one hand......seeing it across the board in many professions. my son finished his masters and he was the only man in his whole cohort, in a science degree.

Advanced degrees are different. A bachelor’s it is incredibly difficult to fail out of if you keep showing up. Masters and PhDs and MDs do have a lot not mae it for various reasons. But the sad thing is we are seeing very few males in STEM. I have very few males in many of my classes now. 

[JustinRP37]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. 

Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble. 

[nycsnow]

Icon would be some front end snow followed by rain Monday. Hopefully we can get things to trend colder/ south 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Icon would be some front end snow followed by rain Monday. Hopefully we can get things to trend colder/ south 

Ukie!

[STORMANLI]

Probably before many here were born, but today is 57-year anniversary of The Lindsay Storm.

In Queens at the time and very difficult to measure. 17.7" was my best attempt.  No pictures, but I remember tunneling into back yard where the snow was scoured out in the middle to some bare ground while surrounded by drifts reaching to the second floor.

[Jt17]

Ukie!

These solutions are all over the damn place lol


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[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The snow was blinding at times.

Feb 9 , 2017

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble. 

Yep - 11/1 today.   Halloween equivalent tomorrow Feb 10

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I remember that one, was a fun event in Nassau County. I think I had 10” or so. Was one of those that blew up for NYC and NE into New England. 

 

 

Edit: somehow I forgot this one:

 

[Prue11]

16.8 currently. Colder than expected 

[NEG NAO]

Which one will come closest ? IMO the Canadian is the most reasonable as of tonight....

[Roger Smith]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. 

You'll be relieved to learn that one person (at least) understood the point you were making -- the most extreme portion of winter is now past, like on August 10th the most extreme part of summer is done. But nearly similar records can still be hit. 

(he wasn't trying to say the sun angle on Feb 10th = sun abgle on Aug 10th).

[North and West]

Enjoy the cold while it last because it will pretty much be done when February is over. March will start out warm, with at least one 60+ degree day in the first week of the month.

While it lasts? C’mon... It’s been nippy nearly the whole season since thanksgiving.


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[North and West]

This looks like the kind of map someone like I would make.


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[North and West]

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s.
Tomorrow will see the temperature reach or exceed freezing. Wednesday will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.
The SOI was +4.66 today. 
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.895 today. 
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.2° (4.7° below normal). 
Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 
Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.
 

This would be good for a nice slow and steady melting.


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[North and West]

You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us

…and calendar.


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[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Which one will come closest ? IMO the Canadian is the most reasonable as of tonight....

GFS

[jm1220]

Chance at some sleet/freezing rain later especially north of the city but maybe north shore as well. 

[bluewave]

I am really happy we were able to sneak in the big benchmark system in late January. But we have reverted back to the dominant storm track pattern since 2018-2019. With the blizzard getting suppressed to our south, we have returned to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. 
 

 

[TriPol]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am really happy we were able to sneak in the big benchmark system in late January. But we have reverted back to the dominant storm track pattern since 2018-2019. With the blizzard getting suppressed to our south, we have returned to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. 
 

 

Too far north for suppressed systems, too far south for coastal huggers, too far east for lake effect snow. I'm not sure what we're too far west for, but I'm sure it's something.