nycsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Next weekends event is not set in stone - amazing how many are assuming it’s just going to be plain rain........ Upton mentioned what the ai euro kinda just showed it can also be a complete miss as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Upton mentioned what the ai euro kinda just showed it can also be a complete miss as well and then you have to consider the strong LP along the mid- atlantic coast shown on the 12Z Canadian - lets see if the Canadian shows that at 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 39 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Greenland blocking is usually warm East/cold West in March. I thought it was some time in late April or May that it flips. That's incorrect. The opposite is true. Winter/early spring is cold; it flips later spring/summer. Here are 500 mb anomalies and temperature anomalies for March Greenland blocks: Here are mean temperatures for NYC (1980-2025): March 1-15: NAO -0.50 or below: 39.3°; NAO +0.50 or above: 41.5° March 16-31: NAO -0.50 or below: 43.3°; NAO +0.50 or above: 46.4° Finally, what does AI say about the posted map under discussion? Here's ChatGPT 5.2's response: Gemini's Output: 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and then you have to consider the strong LP along the mid- atlantic coast shown on the 12Z Canadian - lets see if the Canadian shows that at 0Z Canadian would be the best solution for most… was very close to all snow for nyc Long Island as well… front end to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 29 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said: Record warm SST anomalies in the North Pacific, including year after year of marine heatwaves, continue to push a fast northern stream which is why it's been impossible to get a traditional, benchmark KU storm aside from 2021 and 2022 (for part of our forum). Until we see some sort of decline in North Pacific SSTs, this problem will continue. Or a marine heatwave somewhere else counteracts it. It’ll be interesting next winter if we go into a Nino, hopefully the western Pacific warmth can shift east and nudge the forcing east of the Dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s. Tomorrow will see the temperature reach or exceed freezing. Wednesday will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +4.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.895 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.2° (4.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Today's EWR: 33 / 11 (-12) NYC: 31 / 10 (-15) Mid 30s Tuesday - 40 or above Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said: Just saw on the memories in my Iphone, today in 2017 was a blizzard for many of us. Was in the 60s the day before, 2/8/17, with a winter storm watch for 8-12" of snow for the next day. I remember how many people in my inner circle couldn't believe it would snow the next day. Precip started out as rain around 40 degrees around 4 am, and then temps crashed and it was snowing by 5:30 or so. Very heavy snow all morning, 9-12" here in NYC, and a blizzard just to the east of us. Great storm, followed by deep cold. must have missed nj altogether.. i remember a few slushy inches around that time....perhaps that was the one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 hours ago, nycsnow said: Yikes good for ski country plus it washes away the nasty salt. fine by me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 31 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said: Just saw on the memories in my Iphone, today in 2017 was a blizzard for many of us. Was in the 60s the day before, 2/8/17, with a winter storm watch for 8-12" of snow for the next day. I remember how many people in my inner circle couldn't believe it would snow the next day. Precip started out as rain around 40 degrees around 4 am, and then temps crashed and it was snowing by 5:30 or so. Very heavy snow all morning, 9-12" here in NYC, and a blizzard just to the east of us. Great storm, followed by deep cold. The snow was blinding at times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, nycsnow said: Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 As I was driving past Little Neck Bay today I was amazed to see the whole thing frozen. I havent seen that in years. And then I was floored to see it frozen thru the Throgs Neck Bridge. I have never seen that! Over the past few weeks I have been playing whack a mole with frozen pipes. I dont want warmth yet but normal 30s day 20s night will feel…good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Took this pic from Jersey City looking across the Hudson. Actually been checking over the past week and was disappointed to see not much ice. But today there was, and tomorrow will probably look better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, NyWxGuy said: Just saw on the memories in my Iphone, today in 2017 was a blizzard for many of us. Was in the 60s the day before, 2/8/17, with a winter storm watch for 8-12" of snow for the next day. I remember how many people in my inner circle couldn't believe it would snow the next day. Precip started out as rain around 40 degrees around 4 am, and then temps crashed and it was snowing by 5:30 or so. Very heavy snow all morning, 9-12" here in NYC, and a blizzard just to the east of us. Great storm, followed by deep cold. I remember that one, was a fun event in Nassau County. I think I had 10” or so. Was one of those that blew up for NYC and NE into New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 35 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. August 10th?..sun is equivalent to late October today..August 10th is late April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: young men are failing out of school like crazy. i know lots of them. hence the efforts to stem the flow. my friend's daughter is in med school and can practically count the males on one hand......seeing it across the board in many professions. my son finished his masters and he was the only man in his whole cohort, in a science degree. Advanced degrees are different. A bachelor’s it is incredibly difficult to fail out of if you keep showing up. Masters and PhDs and MDs do have a lot not mae it for various reasons. But the sad thing is we are seeing very few males in STEM. I have very few males in many of my classes now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Icon would be some front end snow followed by rain Monday. Hopefully we can get things to trend colder/ south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, nycsnow said: Icon would be some front end snow followed by rain Monday. Hopefully we can get things to trend colder/ south Ukie! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Probably before many here were born, but today is 57-year anniversary of The Lindsay Storm. In Queens at the time and very difficult to measure. 17.7" was my best attempt. No pictures, but I remember tunneling into back yard where the snow was scoured out in the middle to some bare ground while surrounded by drifts reaching to the second floor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Ukie!These solutions are all over the damn place lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The snow was blinding at times. Feb 9 , 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble. Yep - 11/1 today. Halloween equivalent tomorrow Feb 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: I remember that one, was a fun event in Nassau County. I think I had 10” or so. Was one of those that blew up for NYC and NE into New England. Edit: somehow I forgot this one: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16.8 currently. Colder than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Which one will come closest ? IMO the Canadian is the most reasonable as of tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. You'll be relieved to learn that one person (at least) understood the point you were making -- the most extreme portion of winter is now past, like on August 10th the most extreme part of summer is done. But nearly similar records can still be hit. (he wasn't trying to say the sun angle on Feb 10th = sun abgle on Aug 10th). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Enjoy the cold while it last because it will pretty much be done when February is over. March will start out warm, with at least one 60+ degree day in the first week of the month.While it lasts? C’mon... It’s been nippy nearly the whole season since thanksgiving. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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