February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[deathstar9]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

On the Jersey shore I'm sure it does. To those of us to the north of NYC latitude I've always looked at the first two to three weeks of March as just another winter month. After the 20th or so I agree.

Absolutely, mid-March 2017 was probably my favorite storm in the last 10-15 years, solid cold during and for several days after. March 2018 had a bunch of storms including one big one and 2019 was very solid as well.  Prior to that March 2013 and 2015 were great.  Lately it’s been much worse but 2022 and 2023 had some decent events.

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

because people there actually pay attention to the winter olympics.....my wife is colombian; never heard of the winter olympics before she came here.

Just watched Curling earlier this evening, good day for the USA. 

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

ask anyone irish....it's always cold on st patty's day....i was down in monmouth co i think it was 2003 in march, we were at a meeting at a school in matawan and it started snowing. it started coming down heavy and our district called early; but we were already stuck at this meeting. it got very bad quickly going up the gsp; heavy wet flakes.

It's St. Paddy's Day, Patty is short for Patricia   I've had St Paddy's Day parties when I had to move snow banks for parking and I've had them where we all hung out on the deck. 14/8 here currently. 

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Just watched Curling earlier this evening, good day for the USA. 

It's St. Paddy's Day, Patty is short for Patricia   14/8 here currently. 

since 'Paddy" is a british ethnic slur, some reject it and use the American St Patty's or St Pat's.....or in my house, el dia de san patricio....patron de irlanda....if you're not asleep from watching curling.....

[MJO812]

[Roger Smith]

In case you missed the post I made in western subforum, highs in 70s today in coastal Oregon and in chinook zones of Montana, and near 60F in Vancouver and Seattle. The clipper coming southeast tomorrow will not pull any of that in but right now it is above freezing in southern Manitoba so you may get a brief spike in temps Friday afternoon or evening before the arctic cold front arrives. It quickly falls to -30 F (-34 C) as that front passes through northern Manitoba. The source of the cold air is transpolar but more from Greenland than Alaska or Siberia. 

[Nibor]

45 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

since 'Paddy" is a british ethnic slur, some reject it and use the American St Patty's or St Pat's.....or in my house, el dia de san patricio....patron de irlanda....if you're not asleep from watching curling.....

It's Paddy because in Irish Patrick is spelled Padraig. There are way worse "ethnic slurs" used by the Brits and their collaborators. 

[jm1220]

16 already. Tonight should be in the single digits here. 

[Prue11]

13.6

[Northof78]

Tomorrow will mark 21 days (3 weeks) of straight snow cover across most of the region. Currently it appears likely we will hit the full straight 1 month mark by next weekend with cold temperatures remaining and some chance of additional snows in the period. Fairly rare for N/C NJ and NYC Metro, we get a 1 month (or more) straight of snow cover roughly every 5/6 winters. 

[RU848789]

13 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Tomorrow will mark 21 days (3 weeks) of straight snow cover across most of the region. Currently it appears likely we will hit the full straight 1 month mark by next weekend with cold temperatures remaining and some chance of additional snows in the period. Fairly rare for N/C NJ and NYC Metro, we get a 1 month (or more) straight of snow cover roughly every 5/6 winters. 

Easily, especially since the pack for most started with 1-2" otg from 1/17-18 and most of us got 1.5-1.9" frozen QPF on 1/25, even if it might've only been 11-12" in depth, since 3-4" of that was sleet for many.  That's a lot of frozen QPF to melt (and not much of it has melted yet) and with temps only getting to around 40F late next week, I'd think most of the pack will still be here on 2/17, especially if we top it off tomorrow and a bit next week.  

[MJO812]

Active pattern coming with a few snow chances 

[lee59]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Fixed.  But I agree with you.

Thanks

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

since 'Paddy" is a british ethnic slur, some reject it and use the American St Patty's or St Pat's.....or in my house, el dia de san patricio....patron de irlanda....if you're not asleep from watching curling.....

Sometimes the slurs backfire, like with Yankee.  Although that is still kind of a slur.  Let's go Mets. A ligean ar aghaidh go hÉirinn.

[ForestHillWx]

Back down to 10… 

[MJO812]

24 here

[jm1220]

13 here. Popular number the last couple mornings. Hoping for an inch or two with the upcoming snow but models seem to be shifting east with it more. 

[lee59]

21 here and cloudy

[nycsnow]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

13 here. Popular number the last couple mornings. Hoping for an inch or two with the upcoming snow but models seem to be shifting east with it more. 

11th looks like to be our next widespread light event… models still all over as well for the vday threat 

[jconsor]

Most of the NE US is in the lowest 5 percentile for cold past two weeks, with many stations in the lowest 1 to 2 percentiles.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Most of the NE US is in the lowest 5 percentiles for cold past two weeks, with many stations in the lowest 1 to 2 percentiles.

 

I’m ready for it to warm up for sure especially if there’s no significant snow threat. Sick of looking at darkening ice piles lol. 

[NEG NAO]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

when does Upton get the message ? They have rain in their forecast next week

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

11th looks like to be our next widespread light event… models still all over as well for the vday threat 

light meaning snow and rain and above freezing according to Upton

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately those 10 or so days were not all that fun for here. Eastern NC though I'm sure was just in love with this pattern lol.

From the looks of the Nina phase 1 passage is taking place this weekend. Large cold dump with warming through much of the plains showing up. Going forward it does show cold building back up into Canada to be unleashed again at some point maybe the last week or so of February into early March as we move into Phase 2/3?

[SnoSki14]

Something overlooked is how dry things have been and how we're all technically in a drought. Reservoirs are extremely low vs average. 

[nycsnow]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

light meaning snow and rain and above freezing according to Upton

Makes sense at this point, models showing every possible outcome next week

[Stormlover74]

40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Something overlooked is how dry things have been and how we're all technically in a drought. Reservoirs are extremely low vs average. 

Yeah at this rate February may end up below an inch of liquid

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah at this rate February may end up below an inch of liquid

I doubt it with the PNA going negative. The STJ should wake up.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Something overlooked is how dry things have been and how we're all technically in a drought. Reservoirs are extremely low vs average. 

Not overlooked by me.  Totally agree with you.  I find people just don’t want to hear about it or pay attention to it at this time of year.  We need to get into an above normal precipitation pattern soon or there will be significant issues as we head into the warm season.  We have been in a prolonged below normal precipitation pattern for the better part of a year.

[TJW014]

Morning low of 7 this morning. Scraped probably a 1/2" layer of frost off the windshield. 
 

[SACRUS]

 

25 / 10 off a low of 9,3.   We'll see if today can make 5 above freezing in a row / and yet still be -5 or so below avg for the period.  Light snow tonight and throughout the morning Saturday.  Cold perhaps coldest 60 hour period Sat AM - Monday PM.  Moderation next week but stubborn cold could yield a mix Wed and later Valentines weekend and into presidenets day 2/16.  Beyond there a bit warmer overall but still close to avg.