donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Colder air will move back into the region tonight. As a result, tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. An even stronger surge of Arctic air will likely arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Some areas could pick up a heavier snow squall. Highs on Sunday could be in the teens in New York City with lows in the single digits. The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February. So far, January 20-February 2 has been the coldest two-week period this winter with a mean temperature of 21.0° in New York city. January 17-30 with 13.4" of snow has been the snowiest two-week stretch. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +31.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.454 today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Here comes the gfs is that what you named the baby 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: is that what you named the baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A very icy New Haven Harbor today. You can see the ice getting pushed up against the Pardee Seawall Park on the east shore. This is the most ice on the area waterways during the 2020s and will peak early next week. Ice shoves could become a concern in areas that get strong winds directly into the shore. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: NOT THE MAMA! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Rgem gives LI an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Prue11 said: It's coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem gives LI an inch RGEM has a crazy blob over north shore/ Cape Ann area. 12"+ in a very small area, but it doesn't look much like OES at first glance, unless it's on a south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Landlord paint on our snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Prue11 said: Montauk ground zero. Congratulations to all of the 4,000 residents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Montauk ground zero. Congratulations to all of the 4,000 residents. It’s more of an inverted trough setup and we have to see where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The snow pack and no wind creates some big variations in temperature. The city 21 degrees and some suburbs near zero. Even in my own yard I have two readings one between the house and garage which is 12 degrees and one in the middle of the back yard which reads 9 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 13 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Looks like we head into warmer and rainy next weekend per euro and gfs though still cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This has been some stretch of cold and snow pack. It will feel nice when those first mild temperatures arrive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks like we head into warmer and rainy next weekend per euro and gfs though still cold Hopefully not. We'd be dealing with a lot of pot holes and even ice jams Not sure how bad the overall icing situation is though compared to 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Dear weather gods: Please don't give us another Valentines Day sleetstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Models trended wetter and warmer for next week, will obviously keep changing but regardless strong signals of next week being active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks like we head into warmer and rainy next weekend per euro and gfs though still cold its impossible to determine the exact setup that will be in place the middle and end of next week - models are inaccurate at that range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its impossible to determine the exact setup that will be in place the middle and end of next week - models are inaccurate at that range Good to know 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Models trended wetter and warmer for next week, will obviously keep changing but regardless strong signals of next week being active Ensembles are colder but aren't they always? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Models trended wetter and warmer for next week, will obviously keep changing but regardless strong signals of next week being active Models shifting wildly run to run. I would tread lightly with any solution this far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models shifting wildly run to run. I would tread lightly with any solution this far out. Agree I’m more focused on signal…. One thing starting to pop up and is getting closer is a possible light event 11th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 We’ll see if the guidance is correct that we will finally end the under 40° streak by later next week as we are currently in 18th place. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 35 1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08 2 34 1886-01-06 through 1886-02-08 3 33 1948-01-10 through 1948-02-11 4 26 1878-12-23 through 1879-01-17 5 25 1881-01-15 through 1881-02-08 6 23 1939-12-22 through 1940-01-13 - 23 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14 - 23 1885-01-18 through 1885-02-09 9 22 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-17 - 22 1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15 - 22 1893-01-03 through 1893-01-24 - 22 1882-12-27 through 1883-01-17 - 22 1880-12-16 through 1881-01-06 10 21 2004-01-14 through 2004-02-03 - 21 2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06 - 21 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-16 - 21 1940-01-16 through 1940-02-05 - 21 1901-01-26 through 1901-02-15 - 21 1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16 - 21 1876-12-17 through 1877-01-06 11 20 1905-01-23 through 1905-02-11 - 20 1902-02-03 through 1902-02-22 - 20 1888-01-15 through 1888-02-03 12 19 2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01 - 19 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18 - 19 1976-12-22 through 1977-01-09 13 18 1969-12-30 through 1970-01-16 - 18 1914-02-08 through 1914-02-25 - 18 1903-12-26 through 1904-01-12 - 18 1886-12-26 through 1887-01-12 14 17 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-31 - 17 2000-12-20 through 2001-01-05 - 17 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-27 - 17 1966-01-22 through 1966-02-07 - 17 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-04 - 17 1947-12-23 through 1948-01-08 - 17 1934-01-29 through 1934-02-14 - 17 1917-12-26 through 1918-01-11 - 17 1909-12-16 through 1910-01-01 - 17 1875-01-05 through 1875-01-21 15 16 2011-01-20 through 2011-02-04 - 16 1963-12-10 through 1963-12-25 - 16 1884-01-15 through 1884-01-30 - 16 1870-02-22 through 1870-03-09 16 15 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-08 - 15 1989-12-16 through 1989-12-30 - 15 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-22 - 15 1980-01-24 through 1980-02-07 - 15 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 - 15 1978-01-10 through 1978-01-24 - 15 1969-12-14 through 1969-12-28 - 15 1960-02-29 through 1960-03-14 - 15 1910-01-03 through 1910-01-17 - 15 1874-01-29 through 1874-02-12 17 14 2007-01-29 through 2007-02-11 - 14 2003-02-05 through 2003-02-18 - 14 1958-02-07 through 1958-02-20 - 14 1945-12-11 through 1945-12-24 - 14 1938-01-09 through 1938-01-22 - 14 1929-01-24 through 1929-02-06 - 14 1897-01-23 through 1897-02-05 18 13 2026-01-23 through 2026-02-04 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully not. We'd be dealing with a lot of pot holes and even ice jams Not sure how bad the overall icing situation is though compared to 2015 Its been a while since we had to be concerned with ice jams but depending on how all of this thaws, this could be the year ice jams are an issue. Low of -2 this morning, making 8 below zero readings this season, my average is 3. This season is solidy in third for below zero lows IMBY, 2013-2014 had 11 and 2014-2015 had 15, my records here go back to 2005-2006. 12" at the stake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend. I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI Gonna be a foggy and chilly spring, prob a late start to boating season to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI Will probably make backdoor front season worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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