February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Models trended wetter and warmer for next week, will obviously keep changing but regardless strong signals of next week being active 

Models shifting wildly run to run. I would tread lightly with any solution this far out. 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models shifting wildly run to run. I would tread lightly with any solution this far out. 

Agree I’m more focused on signal…. One thing starting to pop up and is getting closer is a possible light event 11th

[jm1220]

Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend. 

[bluewave]

We’ll see if the guidance is correct that we will finally end the under 40° streak by later next week as we are currently in 18th place.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	35	1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08
2	34	1886-01-06 through 1886-02-08
3	33	1948-01-10 through 1948-02-11
4	26	1878-12-23 through 1879-01-17
5	25	1881-01-15 through 1881-02-08
6	23	1939-12-22 through 1940-01-13
-	23	1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14
-	23	1885-01-18 through 1885-02-09
9	22	1967-12-27 through 1968-01-17
-	22	1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25
-	22	1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06
-	22	1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15
-	22	1893-01-03 through 1893-01-24
-	22	1882-12-27 through 1883-01-17
-	22	1880-12-16 through 1881-01-06
10	21	2004-01-14 through 2004-02-03
-	21	2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06
-	21	1978-01-27 through 1978-02-16
-	21	1940-01-16 through 1940-02-05
-	21	1901-01-26 through 1901-02-15
-	21	1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16
-	21	1876-12-17 through 1877-01-06
11	20	1905-01-23 through 1905-02-11
-	20	1902-02-03 through 1902-02-22
-	20	1888-01-15 through 1888-02-03
12	19	2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01
-	19	1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18
-	19	1976-12-22 through 1977-01-09
13	18	1969-12-30 through 1970-01-16
-	18	1914-02-08 through 1914-02-25
-	18	1903-12-26 through 1904-01-12
-	18	1886-12-26 through 1887-01-12
14	17	2005-01-15 through 2005-01-31
-	17	2000-12-20 through 2001-01-05
-	17	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-27
-	17	1966-01-22 through 1966-02-07
-	17	1961-01-19 through 1961-02-04
-	17	1947-12-23 through 1948-01-08
-	17	1934-01-29 through 1934-02-14
-	17	1917-12-26 through 1918-01-11
-	17	1909-12-16 through 1910-01-01
-	17	1875-01-05 through 1875-01-21
15	16	2011-01-20 through 2011-02-04
-	16	1963-12-10 through 1963-12-25
-	16	1884-01-15 through 1884-01-30
-	16	1870-02-22 through 1870-03-09
16	15	2017-12-25 through 2018-01-08
-	15	1989-12-16 through 1989-12-30
-	15	1982-01-08 through 1982-01-22
-	15	1980-01-24 through 1980-02-07
-	15	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19
-	15	1978-01-10 through 1978-01-24
-	15	1969-12-14 through 1969-12-28
-	15	1960-02-29 through 1960-03-14
-	15	1910-01-03 through 1910-01-17
-	15	1874-01-29 through 1874-02-12
17	14	2007-01-29 through 2007-02-11
-	14	2003-02-05 through 2003-02-18
-	14	1958-02-07 through 1958-02-20
-	14	1945-12-11 through 1945-12-24
-	14	1938-01-09 through 1938-01-22
-	14	1929-01-24 through 1929-02-06
-	14	1897-01-23 through 1897-02-05
18	13	2026-01-23 through 2026-02-04

 

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully not. We'd be dealing with a lot of pot holes and even ice jams 

Not sure how bad the overall icing situation is though compared to 2015

Its been a while since we had to be concerned with ice jams but depending on how all of this thaws, this could be the year ice jams are an issue. Low of -2 this morning, making 8 below zero readings this season, my average is 3. This season is solidy in third for below zero lows IMBY, 2013-2014 had 11 and 2014-2015 had 15, my records here go back to 2005-2006. 12" at the stake.

[WestBabylonWeather]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jones Beach water temp down to 35.4 degrees. That’s pretty damn cold, coldest normally gets down to 38-39. And it’ll keep getting colder because of this weekend. 

I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI

[nycsnow]

12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI

Gonna be a foggy and chilly spring, prob a late start to boating season to

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I wonder how this will affect season lag on LI

Will probably make backdoor front season worse. 

[nycwinter]

you can get backdoor fronts well into june..

[the_other_guy]

i’m glad we got this major snow with cold to keep the snow on the ground for a while.

 

If nothing else pans out most of us will finish the season just below normal or just above normal.

And frankly, I’m looking out and I don’t see much panning out over next week

About 5 weeks left in the game

 

[bluewave]

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast.

While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter.

Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November.

Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gonna be a foggy and chilly spring, prob a late start to boating season to

Think spring could be quite brutal though it depends if it's more northwest vs easterly flow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Low of 2° this morning.

it seems to be a crapshoot the last couple of weeks on what mornings are gonna be the mornings of good radiational cooling. This morning seemed to be one of them at least in certain areas.

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Low of 2° this morning.

it seems to be a crapshoot the last couple of weeks on what mornings are gonna be the mornings of good radiational cooling. This morning seemed to be one of them at least in certain areas.

A crap shoot for sure. The wild fluctiuons, over short distances, this winter due to radiational cooling has been rad. Up to 20 now.

[MANDA]

Gotta admire them.  Wish I had learned to surf,  that train has left the station.  Nice video though.  

https://x.com/i/status/2019349379715305856

[Freezing Drizzle]

 

If this verifies, another "one inch blizzard" effect on Saturday, like 2/2/1976?

Forecast for Staten Island - NWS

Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature rising to near 19 by 10am, then falling to around 13 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northwest wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 28 to 33 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

 

[Freezing Drizzle]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

The snow pack and no wind creates some big variations in temperature. The city 21 degrees and some suburbs near zero. Even in my own yard I have two readings one between the house and garage which is 12 degrees and one in the middle of the back yard which reads 9 degrees.

Minimums for today. Yeah, great differences. Northwest and north-central NJ was particularly cold.

[SnowGoose69]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast.

While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter.

Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November.

Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

 

I felt like all El Nino summers here have been at best average.  I just checked and since the 80s only 2002 was above normal and that was by 0.2 and skewed mostly by August.  I was surprised to see 1991 was not above normal.  Its common to see places nearby like PA/OH average above though.