February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (1991)
NYC: 68 (1991)
LGA: 68 (1991)
JFK: 68 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 5 (2023)
NYC: 0 (1918)
LGA: 5 (2023)
JFK: 4 (2023)

 

Historical: 

 

1842: A dreadful tornado passed over Mayfield, Kirkland, and other Cuyahoga and Lake Counties in Ohio. According to the Cleveland Herald, no less than 30 houses, barns, and buildings were entirely demolished or very much shattered. A "report from Kirtland says that one man and one child are dead."

1886: Washington, DC from the 2nd to the 4th: Heavy snow of 12.4 inches fell over the DC. area. (NWS - Sterling Office - Table of the "Biggest Snowstorms on Record")

1893: Calgary, Alberta Canada's coldest day saw the temperature drop to -49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1924: In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 20.3 inches of snow fell in 24 hours. This ranks as the most snowfall in 24 hours since 1884. This storm caused over $1 million in damage. Streetcar and train service crippled. Snowdrifts of 8 to 10 feet high were common, along with much ice on trees and wires. Schools were closed, and several plate glass windows were broken.

1961 - The third great snowstorm of the winter season struck the northeastern U.S. Cortland NY received 40 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1964: A great blizzard was in progress across the Texas Panhandle. This blizzard, which began on the 2nd and ended on the 5th, dumped 26 inches of snow at Borger, 23.8 inches at Miami, and 23.5 inches at Claude. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1984: On this day through the 5th, a fast moving blizzard was racing across northeast, east central South Dakota and most of Iowa with bouts of heavy snow and high winds. Snow amounts were generally less than two inches with the storm. However, as the cold front tore across the area temperatures plunged by as much as 30 degrees in three hours and winds gusted to 70 mph. Another 2 to 3 inches fell before the event was over. Gusty winds struck quickly, plummeting visibilities to near zero in blowing snow and making travel very difficult in a matter of minutes with dangerous wind chills. Hundreds of travelers became stranded in the white-out conditions. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Gales lashed the northern Pacific coast and the coast of northern New England. A storm in the central U.S. produced five inches of snow at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Two dozen cities in the south central and northwestern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. The low of 14 below zero at Boise ID was a February record. A winter storm continued in the southwestern U.S. Alta UT reported 49 inches of snow in four days, Wolf Creek CO reported 66 inches in six days, including 28 inches in 24 hours, and up to 84 inches buried the ski resorts of northern New Mexico in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 13 inches at Gorham, with 11 inches reported at Portland. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 14 inches at Franconia, with 13 inches reported at Portsmouth. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain caused numerous traffic accidents in eastern New York State resulting in three deaths and fourteen injuries. Subzero cold also gripped parts of the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME and Houlton ME reported morning lows of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches.

 

2004 - 7.15 inches of rain deluges Pinson, AL, setting an all-time record rainfall over 24 hours for the town. The Weather Doctor

2007 - Kahului reports a minimum temperature of 54°F, a daily low temperature record for the date. The Weather Doctor

2011 - A winter storm settled four to six inches of snow over northern Texas, including Dallas, just days before the Super Bowl between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Green Bay Packers.

[bluewave]

Much of North America is on track for a thaw heading into to mid-February following the Arctic outbreak in the Northeast this weekend. 
 

 

[RU848789]

15 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

what is the average for new brunswick..around 28? so going by that we are a hair over average....

The 132 year average is 25.4" while the 1990-2020 30-year average is 29.6". 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow

[JustinRP37]

Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. 

[RU848789]

With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning.  Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have.  

[Stormlover74]

32 already. Maybe make it to 36 or 37 today

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning.  Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have.  

Time for a refresher for the black ice piles in the parking lots. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That is one feat I never attempted back in my Long Beach days. I made it a rule to never go into the ocean when it when the SSTs were any cooler than the 60s. But knew a bunch of people who attended them.

I've done the Coney Island polar plunge a few times.

[NyWxGuy]

Already at freezing mark here in Queens. Should blow right through mid 30s today. Always use model forecasts of temps with a grain of salt. During heat waves, they're often several degrees too warm and during cold snaps, they're often several degrees too cold. Our thaw continues. 

Looking into the future:

1. Model guidance is indicating around 1" of snow for most of Saturday morning. Certainly cold enough for it as well 

2 Looks to be 2 separate threats for late next week (one around 14th, and one around 16th)

Maybe it's possible both blend into one distinct threat for next weekend, or maybe two separate ones?

After that, it looks like a trough gets pushed into the west, which is probably our best bet for warm temperatures this month.

[Rmine1]

Flurries 

brightwaters 31

[romba]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. 

Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise?

[Stormlover74]

41 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning.  Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have.  

Rgem insists on only a quarter inch

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem insists on only a quarter inch

NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

 

I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling. 

Wouldn't it be a bit unusual to see a 970s low on the DE coast in a SWFE?

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, romba said:

Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise?

To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south.  Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west.  Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php

 

Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Not a snow coverage pattern that one often sees. Complete with coverage in northern Mississippi and a snow hole in Iowa.

AW February 1, 2026


 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Much of North America is on track for a thaw heading into to mid-February following the Arctic outbreak in the Northeast this weekend. 
 

 

Warmest departures to our north as has been the theme for a while 

[SnoSki14]

A lot of confluence to our northeast next week so any system that tries to cut will have to redevelop off the coast. 

Could be sneaky active next week 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Not a snow coverage pattern that one often sees. Complete with coverage in northern Mississippi and a snow hole in Iowa.

AW February 1, 2026


 

Heaviest snow in some spots since December 1989.

 

[MJO812]

Barely a warmup on gfs

[EastonSN+]

Another Carolina Crusher?

[MJO812]

Ukie

Models are starting to feel the block 

[NyWxGuy]

Can we make a thread for Saturday's clipper?

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south.  Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west.  Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php

 

Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

 

Would NEMO as well as Feb. 2010 be SWFEs? Both primaries were north of us.

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Can we make a thread for Saturday's clipper?

Its a dusting

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Another Carolina Crusher?

From rainstorm to blizzard to cold and suppressed in 3 runs

[EastonSN+]

Interesting look on the Canadian 

[Jt17]

From rainstorm to blizzard to cold and suppressed in 3 runs

Gfs AI from best I can tell on pivotal based on qpf and temps has a moderate snowstorm and close to something bigger.


.

[jm1220]

A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. 

Most of the towns in Union County should be carving the corners, etc...