jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 21 minutes ago, RU848789 said: With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning. Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have. Time for a refresher for the black ice piles in the parking lots. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, bluewave said: That is one feat I never attempted back in my Long Beach days. I made it a rule to never go into the ocean when it when the SSTs were any cooler than the 60s. But knew a bunch of people who attended them. I've done the Coney Island polar plunge a few times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Flurries brightwaters 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Looks like a SWFE setup. Without a massive high pressure dome like last time locking in cold air, we know how those normally turn out. Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 41 minutes ago, RU848789 said: With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning. Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have. Rgem insists on only a quarter inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem insists on only a quarter inch NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: I was talking verbatim. It does look consistently like there’s some kind of storm setup for around Presidents Day weekend on the long range modeling. Wouldn't it be a bit unusual to see a 970s low on the DE coast in a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, romba said: Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise? To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south. Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west. Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Not a snow coverage pattern that one often sees. Complete with coverage in northern Mississippi and a snow hole in Iowa. AW February 1, 2026 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Much of North America is on track for a thaw heading into to mid-February following the Arctic outbreak in the Northeast this weekend. Warmest departures to our north as has been the theme for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A lot of confluence to our northeast next week so any system that tries to cut will have to redevelop off the coast. Could be sneaky active next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 14 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said: Not a snow coverage pattern that one often sees. Complete with coverage in northern Mississippi and a snow hole in Iowa. AW February 1, 2026 Heaviest snow in some spots since December 1989. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Barely a warmup on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Another Carolina Crusher? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Ukie Models are starting to feel the block 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south. Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west. Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php Would NEMO as well as Feb. 2010 be SWFEs? Both primaries were north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said: Can we make a thread for Saturday's clipper? Its a dusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Another Carolina Crusher? From rainstorm to blizzard to cold and suppressed in 3 runs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Interesting look on the Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 From rainstorm to blizzard to cold and suppressed in 3 runsGfs AI from best I can tell on pivotal based on qpf and temps has a moderate snowstorm and close to something bigger. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. Most of the towns in Union County should be carving the corners, etc... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: 32 already. Maybe make it to 36 or 37 today Not sure. Temperature wasn't expected to go too much higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 46 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said: Can we make a thread for Saturday's clipper? Better ask the bosses......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Barely a warmup on gfs its been like that most of the winter except in early January - models allow the warming to reach us in the longer range then when we get closer and closer to it they reduce its impact here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Snowpack definitely took a decent hit over the past couple of days, thankfully it wasn’t a heavy wet snow. The piles will probably persist for a while though. 34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, Cfa said: Snowpack definitely took a decent hit over the past couple of days, thankfully it wasn’t a heavy wet snow. The piles will probably persist for a while though. 34 here. believe it or not the snow is also being absorbed into the warmer grass/dirt underneath which has been very dry and needs the liquid thus reducing the snow pack- thats why my basement sump pump is still going off at least a few times a day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A SWFE is an event that is dominated by mid level southwest flow over colder surface air, so an overrunning event. It can transfer to the coast early enough where the mid level lows develop south of us and the winds turn around to easterly or northerly at those levels at which point it’s not a SWFE anymore but those are rare these days. They used to happen in the 2000s and before, some examples are the 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 storms. But we usually have storms now that redevelop too late so we keep southwest flow at the mid levels due to the mid level lows tracking west of us. That causes changes to sleet/rain/dryslot here. Further north in New England they have more time for the low to transfer to the coast and the cold air is deeper with confluence closer by so they stay snow longer or entirely. I'd classify 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 as Miller Bs more than SWFEs, 12/14/03 was a SWFE though more of a south approacher like 11/2018 was...most come in from way further west than that so the core of the heaviest snows occur to our W and N. Overall systems do seem to amplify more now, we rarely see these weak washed out systems anymore like a 2/8/94 or 2/2008, those types of events always seem to want to majorly intensify or amp. There are numerous reasons why thats the case, likely the Pac SSTs being one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Familiar 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Yesterday the AO was going positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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