Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Perilously close to full nudity on the GFS. Just need the capture to happen a bit farther north. BOS with another 20 burger (assuming they got one this past storm?)

Yea I’d feel confident EOR. 

[MJO812]

Cmc with a 953 low lol

[Wxbear25]

CMC with a definitive step backwards, but at this point with how volatile these setups are ensembles are still more useful, even if the operational is more fun to watch come out

[Greg]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Cmc with a 953 low lol

That can actually be somewhat possible with the potential energy with this storm.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

CMC with a definitive step backwards, but at this point with how volatile these setups are ensembles are still more useful, even if the operational is more fun to watch come out

Why the tend West on the GFS  and east on the CMC? Very frustrating to say the least

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I’d feel confident EOR. 

Unless we get a weenie band out here, I dont recall a storm that gave me large amounts of snow, that far out. On a side note, this snow pack, along with clear calm conditions is doing its work. Already -1⁰. We can keep the snow, get more of it, but maybe be a bit warmer too?

[Wxbear25]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Why the tend West on the GFS  and east on the CMC? Very frustrating to say the least

It just shows how much is going into this system, and how much difficulty the models are going to have handling it.

Its not often virtually every model is showing a ~960 mb low pressure system somewhere off the coast of the mid-Atlantic U.S. 

This situation is so anomalous, I think its better to watch how the ensembles are trending at this point

[Prismshine Productions]

CMC OP had convective feedback issues by trying to pop a double low and having the initial one so far out to sea

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[MuddyWx]

GEFS not blinking

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

CMC OP had convective feedback issues by trying to pop a double low and having the initial one so far out to sea

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Chasing convection.

[FXWX]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I’d feel confident EOR. 

I've seen these types of setups throw heavy snow further west than originally modeled or predicted!  Do not underestimate this storm's ability to push heavy snow into Western CT and the Berkshires...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I’d feel confident EOR. 

I do.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do.

You are

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I've seen these types of setups throw heavy snow further west than originally modeled or predicted!  Do not underestimate this storm's ability to push heavy snow into Western CT and the Berkshires...  

I'll bet DZ ends up well west of me...worried up a Boxing Day outcome with low level fronto pinned to coast, but that's a concern for late week.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I've seen these types of setups throw heavy snow further west than originally modeled or predicted!  Do not underestimate this storm's ability to push heavy snow into Western CT and the Berkshires...  

No doubt. Get it close enough for a shot at mid level magic. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No doubt. Get it close enough for a shot at mid level magic. 

Close enough So we can all get a bomb…that’s what we all want. 

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

GEFS not blinking

Honestly GEFS is a tick better than 18Z again, QPF aside...the mean and spread has moved west once again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The UK is headed for Bermuda. 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Honestly GEFS is a tick better than 18Z again, QPF aside...the mean and spread has moved west once again.

 

yeah, I think the QPF ticking down is moreso a function of losing some of the super-super amped ones, but on the whole they congealed pretty well further west.

Now we just need to get to work on the "more north" part

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The UK is headed for Bermuda. 

yeah looks a lot like 12Z. Based on this i expect the Euro to be awful again, which is not good. Good thing is we still have a lot of time, but i'd really like to see the euro make a solid jump NW. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah looks a lot like 12Z. Based on this i expect the Euro to be awful again, which is not good. Good thing is we still have a lot of time, but i'd really like to see the euro make a solid jump NW. 

didn’t 18z Euro improve? 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah looks a lot like 12Z. Based on this i expect the Euro to be awful again, which is not good. Good thing is we still have a lot of time, but i'd really like to see the euro make a solid jump NW. 

The UK/Euro it seemed for most of the 2018-2025 period would often go opposite directions of each other alot in the D4-7 range, but this winter there has been more a tendency for them to generally follow one another for sure

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

didn’t 18z Euro improve? 

it did yeah, you're right...just dont think well see much of an improvement at 00z (also based on what canadian did) but well see...just speculating of course

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Honestly GEFS is a tick better than 18Z again, QPF aside...the mean and spread has moved west once again.

 

This is very nice to see. 

[78Blizzard]

Euro AI not on board.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Euro AI not on board.

Carbon copy of 18z

[weathafella]

Nor is op euro.  Gfs at 0Z seems alone.  But it’s pretty early still so we stay the course.  I accidentally booked my car at RSW for Monday evening vs our scheduled arrival Sunday.  I told my wife it’s easier to leave it be until we’re sure we’re getting out Sunday.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro is a moose fart away from nailing eastern areas.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Any mention of the 00z ICON-EPS?

solid hit over eastern areas.

[78Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nor is op euro.  Gfs at 0Z seems alone.  But it’s pretty early still so we stay the course.  I accidentally booked my car at RSW for Monday evening vs our scheduled arrival Sunday.  I told my wife it’s easier to leave it be until we’re sure we’re getting out Sunday.

It's the GFS against the world.  But the Euro gives the cape 1"+ qpf.  Another move nw like this one would get that qpf up to the Boston area.

But if the GFS starts heading east at 06 and/or 12z, it's probably time to move on to the next threat.