OBS: 1/25-26 Snow/Sleet

[jm1220]

Still have a ways to go here but I don’t see any sign the snow line is sagging any further south. Maybe another 1-2” sleet. Good chance I make it to 10” but 12” out of reach unless we see a real cave on the snow line. 

[MarcmmKU]

I got a hair over 8" before the sleet changeover. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, eduggs said:

If you believed the global models from 36 hours ago... ECM, UK, GFS, ICON, CMC - all of them - you would think it should be all-snow throughout the NYC area right now. The NAM is just really good at sniffing these out.

That's not true, most globals had at least some mixing into NYC since like at least Thursday. The only models that was truly late to the party were the GFS and Ukie but those models are garbage. The CMC/Euro def had many runs of mixing.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The NAM was the first model to bring sleet to our area and eventually most of NNJ and southern Westchester. Eventually all other guidance followed suit. It was the earliest to mix today and it was RIGHT. All other guidance was WRONG. PIVOTAL CLOWN MAPS DO NOT EQUAL THE NAM FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION. People seem to be clueless about interpreting model output. UK, GFS, Euro were way too late and south with the mix line.

Look at what the NAM spit out for the island. 3-5”. We doubled that. Move on and take the L bro

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wrong. It had 2-3” in areas that got 10”.

it was the worst model for snowfall totals. Enough. 

THE NAM DOESN'T FORECAST SNOW.

[Snowlover11]

Hard to measure now but 3 readings 11.8, 11.4, 12.1”

[doncat]

About half inch of sleet after 10" of snow with 1.02" equivalent.

 

[EasternLI]

Sleet has made it here around 315pm 7.7" OTG at that time. Sleet/snow mix now. 

[MANDA]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I was out on a ski tour for several hours. The snow is much denser than I would have expected. It was fluffy before 9am and then increasingly dense. I don't think ratios have been great since this morning. After 12pm I began noticing melted flakes foretelling mid-level warming. It's been going back and forth between various combinations of snow and sleet since 1:45.

Yes.  MUCH fluffier early on.  When I shoveled the top half of the depth was much more dense.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

THE NAM DOESN'T FORECAST SNOW.

It blew the big snow thump we had and the RGEM/other models were closer to correct on that. 

[eduggs]

I'm looking out my window and it's 100% sleet right now. The NAM won. No other model was as fast or as far north with the mix line. Same thing in DC and PHI. People need to learn the difference between a CLOWN MAP and model output. Prior to 2010 or so this was not a problem. People used NCEP QPF and temperature maps. Hobbiest were better forecasters.

[mob1]

Atlantic City is now at 33 with plain rain. 

[Jt17]

I'm looking out my window and it's 100% sleet right now. The NAM won. No other model was as fast or as far north with the mix line. Same thing in DC and PHI. People need to learn the difference between a CLOWN MAP and model output. Prior to 2010 or so this was not a problem. People used NCEP QPF and temperature maps. Hobbiest were better forecasters.

Stop.


.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, eduggs said:

I'm looking out my window and it's 100% sleet right now. The NAM won. No other model was as fast or as far north with the mix line. Same thing in DC and PHI. People need to learn the difference between a CLOWN MAP and model output. Prior to 2010 or so this was not a problem. People used NCEP QPF and temperature maps. Hobbiest were better forecasters.

Weren't you worried about not hitting warning levels snows due to the NAM and didn't you say you got 10 inches?

[Volcanic Winter]

It’s interesting because we never went to sleet, it was super fine snow to like almost little ice shards or graupel that continued accumulating. And the snow lingered longer than expected. It was honestly awesome, been outside the whole day in it. Sore already. Still coming down though for the first time as true frozen rain / rain. 31F

[Jt17]

Weren't you worried about not hitting warning levels snows due to the NAM and didn't you say you got 10 inches?

He's ridiculous. The sleet line on the NAM was progged 75 miles north of this. He's being coy. Yes it was first to indicate a warm nose. Kudos. But its actually depiction was way over done and it didn't backdown on being overdone.


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[Intensewind002]

Full on sleet here in sw suffolk, 19 F, 8.7" overall of pure snow when i measured at 2:30 taking an average of 10 measurements around the yard. Not sure how accurate due to the 30 mph gusts but theres definitely at least 7.5

[North and West]

Haven't checked. But has the winter cancelled thread been busy?

next week


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[Picard]

Approaching 10".  Still sitting at 7 degrees (was 6 a little earlier).  No sign of sleet at the moment.  If that cold nose over NW NJ doesn't erode later, my high will remain in the single digits.  I believe the last time I remember that was early - mid 90s.  

[jm1220]

The nature of and evolution of this storm was pretty evident 3 days ago. Thankfully we did well when we had the cold mid level air, that was the real question-the radar presentation coming in thankfully was more like a wall of heavy snow so we almost all got 8”+. It’s a more juiced than normal SWFE into a high pressure dome. The model waffles aside, this outcome was inevitable IMO without significant changes. SWFE will never do best around NYC, at least not in  the last 20 years. We lucked out in that this was an “in like a wall” SWFE and not shredded up crap. In that case like the NAM seemed to have we’d likely struggle to reach 6”. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It blew the big snow thump we had and the RGEM/other models were closer to correct on that. 

I just checked the 6z model runs. For NYC by 21z the NAM had about 0.87" liquid and the RGEM had 0.93". Almost the same. People are just getting fooled by the Pivotal clown map algorithm. Clown maps are really bad for the weather industry. They skew the data and lead to rampant misinterpretation. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The nature of and evolution of this storm was pretty evident 3 days ago. Thankfully we did well when we had the cold mid level air, that was the real question-the radar presentation coming in thankfully was more like a wall of heavy snow so we almost all got 8”+. It’s a more juiced than normal SWFE into a high pressure dome. The model waffles aside, this outcome was inevitable IMO without significant changes. SWFE will never do best around NYC, at least not in  the last 20 years. We lucked out in that this was an “in like a wall” SWFE and not shredded up crap. In that case like the NAM seemed to have we’d likely struggle to reach 6”. 

It also helps when temps are in the low teens at the start of the storm so every little bit of snow sticks immediately.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, eduggs said:

I just checked the 6z model runs. For NYC by 21z the NAM had about 0.87" liquid and the RGEM had 0.93". Almost the same. People are just getting fooled by the Pivotal clown map algorithm. Clown maps are really bad for the weather industry. They skew the data and lead to rampant misinterpretation. 

I guess we'll see if the mix line makes it to I84, but in terms of mixing in and around the city that's been pretty obvious on most models for days. 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Look at what the NAM spit out for the island. 3-5”. We doubled that. Move on and take the L bro

You're getting fooled by Pivotal weather. Use QPF and temperature at available levels (700mb, 850mb) plus an estimate of ratios to guestimate snowfall.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The ukie was the worse,it had us in a snow hole. Im close to a foot as of now still sneeting At 11 degrees. Rose 3 degrees since morning. 

[mikeysed]

Light sleet now. Radars show heavy echos but its light. 

[jm1220]

Looking like the CT coast and Westchester north of Yonkers won’t mix at least until the vast majority of precip is over. 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Weren't you worried about not hitting warning levels snows due to the NAM and didn't you say you got 10 inches?

No. I have been confident about warning snow everywhere. I've also been confident about Putnam/Orange getting 12" plus. I've said numerous times I thought the battleground for double digits would be across southern Westchester extended east and west. This morning appeared to overperform either ratios or QPF. But the progression of the mix line played out very similarly to how the NAM depicted going back several days.

[SACRUS]

 

Concrete here of 10.5 or so snow / sleet and

[Nibor]

Another 5ish hours of sleet to go here. I can see at least 2 inches more of just sleet. Maybe more.