stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Seems wet The sounding at 15z will be very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @high risk how much can I hug the HREF to toss the nams? 6-8” of snow and little ZR for the metros, so presumably sleet on there. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=frzrfram_024h_mean§or=conus (Toggle other winter parameters) So, the problem is that the NAM Nest is part of the HREF....... That means, though, that the other members (HRRR and HiRes Windows) are much snowier. They're all less icy than the RRFS and ECMWF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Taking this and leaving! 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Hr24 looks a nudge warmer, but also appears to be heavier with snow for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If we dont change till 15z, I'd say that's pretty good 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, bncho said: Taking this and leaving! I’ll take 9 inches no problem. Even 7 snow and 2 sleet. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The ultimate problem with all of this if it goes awry is relying on a low along the west coast and what it will do as it traverses the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: The ultimate problem with all of this if it goes awry is relying on a low along the west coast and what it will do as it traverses the country Similar to playing Plinko 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It definitely trended north since 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The Euro is a serious thump tomorrow morning. That is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Here is D.C.'s sounding at 15z. That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, DDweatherman said: That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. Sorry, that's 18z. Pivotal doesn't have 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. But expected at that hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. Every year I try to read soundings…. Every year I feel foolish. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro looks fantastic again for the metros, big pre flip thump. Love to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2m below freezing the entire event. That was the prize to me. Kinda rare at my house at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. DCA is fine during 15z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro It's okay, but we don't have a lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, bncho said: DCA is fine during 15z. Heavy too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro looks fantastic again for the metros, big pre flip thump. Love to see it. The online tantrums comment was premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 So my recommendation and plan is to take the euro and 3k NAM, weight them with gut feeling and a dash of weenie hopium and call it a day. But YMMV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's okay, but we don't have a lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction. Luckily, we are very much running out of time for additional nudges in the wrong direction. I feel like this has been locked in, at least for the metro areas, for a long time. My guess for the dc beltway area is 6" then sleet flip. More snow than that, I will be pleased as punch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Do models generally take bay water and tributary water temps into account? Bay is colder than usual. For sure. And tributaries are icing over or have iced over. This is a climo thing I know . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Paleocene said: Luckily, we are very much running out of time for additional nudges in the wrong direction. I feel like this has been locked in, at least for the metro areas, for a long time. My guess for the dc beltway area is 6" then sleet flip. More snow than that, I will be pleased as punch. So basically the NWS WSW language of: WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's okay, but we don't have a lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction. Good thing it starts in 15 hours, that does help. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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