Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Speak for up north. Charlottesville gets almost under an inch of snow. Seriously, how do I make a forecast with the extremes being 7 inches of all snow and another 3 of sleet or 1 inch of snow! Welcome to meteorology! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 50 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Flow right out of the eastern equatorial Pacific. https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large Thanks for the imagine. Amazing how the clouds explode over eastern TX. What a flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This frankly just goes back to when the NS energy jumped way west early in the week. The one time we were happy to see the NS being messy it cleaned up its act and amped this thing. Of course. One thing I do think is weird though is if that’s the case, why is the NAM and nest so paltry? I feel like if this is gonna juice up, then we should be getting better WAA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Becoming fairly clear that if you want to see it snow for a decent bit of time, you better wake up by 5am at latest. If you believe the NAMs, yes. Let’s see if the 12z guidance moves further that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Welcome to meteorology! Just going to put a massive disclaimer on the slide before I show my forecast map to cover my ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 We do dry slots better than anybody Thinking positively. We also do CAD very well… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3k as bad as 12k....maybe worse if you can believe it. And I know you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle/ sleet by Sunday afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 May be 4-6" of snow on the nam but it is also like 2-4" sleet which is worse impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle by Sunday afternoon. 24 hours ago we were debating if ice would make it to the PA line...now it's closer to the NY line 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle by Sunday afternoon. There is less than a quarter inch of precip from changeover at 12z to 18z for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 FV3 still one to hang on to but it came down a bit with snow totals (except NW crew) all the same. 8-9 for the metros on kuchera vs 10-11 last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Thinking positively. We also do CAD very well… Totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: May be 4-6" of snow on the nam but it is also like 2-4" sleet which is worse impacts. ANd freezing rain on top of that. Not a catastrophic amount, but enough to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nowcast precip shield more expansive than 3k nam forecast for 14-15z, with the ice line a tick further south than modeled. But just a little bit 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Who has the sleet accumulation map from nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Who has the sleet accumulation map from nam? Will post 3K when it finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Who has the sleet accumulation map from nam? Nam even busts on sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3k NAM has over 1" QPF here from 24-36h. All sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Its precip total for me is under half of the other models so I think I'm tossing it due to its bias of overdoing upslope and down slopping features 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If DCA gets 5 inches out of this synoptic setup that’s a huge win. Over under on Ocean City hitting 50 degrees during the storm is also interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Another interesting divergence in the models - surface temps. 00z Monday (7pm Sunday) HRRR: 27 DC, 20 Frederick NAM Nest: 28 DC, 29 Frederick RDPS: 20 DC, 17 Frederick Euro: 27 DC, 21 Frederick GFS: 23 DC, 18 Frederick 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: They are slowly stepping down their totals. This is actually a slight increase from there last map in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WB 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Nam even busts on sleet lol wut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Can snow blowers blow 6 inches of snow with 2 inches of sleet on top? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: lol wut Look at where I live. Though, it also is lower for NOVA just as a value of having so little precip compared to everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: lol wut Surprisingly and thankfully, no zr on the Nam for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, mitchnick said: Surprisingly and thankfully, no zr on the Nam for us. Yeah I thought a lot more zr, but no, just drier with precip max across PA. So far it’s an outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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