Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[stormtracker]

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Seems wet

The sounding at 15z will be very important. 

[high risk]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@high risk how much can I hug the HREF to toss the nams? 6-8” of snow and little ZR for the metros, so presumably sleet on there.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=frzrfram_024h_mean&sector=conus  (Toggle other winter parameters)

      So, the problem is that the NAM Nest is part of the HREF.......     That means, though, that the other members (HRRR and HiRes Windows) are much snowier.     They're all less icy than the RRFS and ECMWF.

[bncho]

Taking this and leaving!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Hr24 looks a nudge warmer, but also appears to be heavier with snow for D.C.

[stormtracker]

If we dont change till 15z, I'd say that's pretty good

[konksw]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Taking this and leaving!

I’ll take 9 inches no problem. Even 7 snow and 2 sleet. Looks great. 

[WEATHER53]

The ultimate problem with all of this if it goes awry is relying on a low along the west coast and what it will do as it traverses the country 

[WxUSAF]

Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

The ultimate problem with all of this if it goes awry is relying on a low along the west coast and what it will do as it traverses the country 

Similar to playing Plinko

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

It definitely trended north since 0z.  

 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z?

 

[clskinsfan]

The Euro is a serious thump tomorrow morning. That is going to be fun. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Could someone post euro QPF by 12z tomorrow? And 15, 18z?

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Here is D.C.'s sounding at 15z.  

That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. 

Sorry, that's 18z. Pivotal doesn't have 15z.

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. 

But expected at that hour

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. 

Every year I try to read soundings…. Every year I feel foolish.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro looks fantastic again for the metros, big pre flip thump.  Love to see it. 

[Terpeast]

Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro

[BristowWx]

2m below freezing the entire event.  That was the prize to me.  Kinda rare at my house at least

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

That’s definitely sleet unfortunately. 

DCA is fine during 15z.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro

It's okay, but we don't have a  lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, bncho said:

DCA is fine during 15z.

Heavy too!

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro looks fantastic again for the metros, big pre flip thump.  Love to see it. 

The online tantrums comment was premature.

[WxUSAF]

So my recommendation and plan is to take the euro and 3k NAM, weight them with gut feeling and a dash of weenie hopium and call it a day. But YMMV. 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's okay, but we don't have a  lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction. 

Luckily, we are very much running out of time for  additional nudges in the wrong direction. I feel like this has been locked in, at least for the metro areas, for a long time. My guess for the dc beltway area is 6" then sleet flip. More snow than that, I will be pleased as punch.

[AACOUNTYMD]

Do models generally take bay water and tributary water temps into account?  Bay is colder than usual. For sure. And tributaries are icing over or have iced over.   This is a climo thing I know . . . 

[konksw]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Luckily, we are very much running out of time for  additional nudges in the wrong direction. I feel like this has been locked in, at least for the metro areas, for a long time. My guess for the dc beltway area is 6" then sleet flip. More snow than that, I will be pleased as punch.

So basically the NWS WSW language of:

 

WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch.

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's okay, but we don't have a  lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction. 

Good thing it starts in 15 hours, that does help.