Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Speak for up north. Charlottesville gets almost under an inch of snow. Seriously, how do I make a forecast with the extremes being 7 inches of all snow and another 3 of sleet or 1 inch of snow!

Welcome to meteorology!

[RDM]

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Flow right out of the eastern equatorial Pacific. 

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large

Thanks for the imagine.  Amazing how the clouds explode over eastern TX.  What a flow.  

[baltosquid]

This frankly just goes back to when the NS energy jumped way west early in the week. The one time we were happy to see the NS being messy it cleaned up its act and amped this thing. Of course. One thing I do think is weird though is if that’s the case, why is the NAM and nest so paltry? I feel like if this is gonna juice up, then we should be getting better WAA snow. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Becoming fairly clear that if you want to see it snow for a decent bit of time, you better wake up by 5am at latest.

If you believe the NAMs, yes.  Let’s see if the 12z guidance moves further that direction. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Welcome to meteorology!

Just going to put a massive disclaimer on the slide before I show my forecast map to cover my ass. 

[WeatherShak]

We do dry slots better than anybody 

Thinking positively. We also do CAD very well…

[mitchnick]

3k as bad as 12k....maybe worse if you can believe it. And I know you can!

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle/ sleet by Sunday afternoon.

[TSSN+]

May be 4-6" of snow on the nam but it is also like 2-4" sleet which is worse impacts. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle by Sunday afternoon.

24 hours ago we were debating if ice would make it to the PA line...now it's closer to the NY line 

[MN Transplant]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM also looks to dry slot with a period of freezing drizzle by Sunday afternoon.

There is less than a quarter inch of precip from changeover at 12z to 18z for many of us.

[baltosquid]

FV3 still one to hang on to but it came down a bit with snow totals (except NW crew) all the same. 8-9 for the metros on kuchera vs 10-11 last run.

[mitchnick]

This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Thinking positively. We also do CAD very well…

Totally agree

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

May be 4-6" of snow on the nam but it is also like 2-4" sleet which is worse impacts. 

ANd freezing rain on top of that. Not a catastrophic  amount, but enough to be a problem. 

[Terpeast]

Nowcast precip shield more expansive than 3k nam forecast for 14-15z, with the ice line a tick further south than modeled. But just a little bit

[TSSN+]

Who has the sleet accumulation map from nam? 

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Who has the sleet accumulation map from nam? 

Will post 3K when it finishes.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Who has the sleet accumulation map from nam? 

Nam even busts on sleet

[WVclimo]

3k NAM has over 1" QPF here from 24-36h.  All sleet.

[SnowenOutThere]

Its precip total for me is under half of the other models so I think I'm tossing it due to its bias of overdoing upslope and down slopping features

[Negnao]

If DCA gets 5 inches out of this synoptic setup that’s a huge win. Over under on Ocean City hitting 50 degrees during the storm is also interesting. 

[MN Transplant]

Another interesting divergence in the models - surface temps.  

00z Monday (7pm Sunday)

• HRRR:  27 DC, 20 Frederick
• NAM Nest:  28 DC, 29 Frederick
• RDPS:  20 DC, 17 Frederick
• Euro:  27 DC, 21 Frederick
• GFS:  23 DC, 18 Frederick

 

[Roger Ramjet]

39 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

They are slowly stepping down their totals. 

This is actually a slight increase from there last map in places.

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Nam even busts on sleet

lol wut

[Interstate]

Can snow blowers blow 6 inches of snow with 2 inches of sleet on top?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

lol wut

Look at where I live. Though, it also is lower for NOVA just as a value of having so little precip compared to everything else. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

lol wut

Surprisingly and thankfully, no zr on the Nam for us.

[Terpeast]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Surprisingly and thankfully, no zr on the Nam for us.

Yeah I thought a lot more zr, but no, just drier with precip max across PA. So far it’s an outlier