aldie 22 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You don't know the answer? Wow Come on man Im a milk man not a weather man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Starting with the words rgem lost is bad marketing Not when you're selling the truth. Here's a link to the 6z GGEM. Also very close to 0z. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Since you are at 4 degrees I I think you will have a 14:1 sleet ratio Thanks Mr. mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Come on man Im a milk man not a weather man Actually, I was trying to convey that I didn't have the scientific answer myself with the emoji, but I would certainly think sleet comes in different shapes and sizes to effect accumulations some. But since sleet is generally 3:1, you probably wouldn't notice a big difference between 2.5:1 and 3.5:1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not when you're selling the truth. Here's a link to the 6z GGEM. Also very close to 0z. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off Just a reminder that the map is 10:1, so you would think Kuchera would increase it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4° with a DP of -11 wind chill of -9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11F Feels like 1F Wind chill -2 Winds NW 10 gust 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6.4/-5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 At least for the DC suburbs, 6z RGEM looks slightly colder and slightly snowier than 0z. 8.2/-5.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, hstorm said: At least for the DC suburbs, 6z RGEM looks slightly colder and slightly snowier than 0z. The models held the line for the lowlands and DC area. I'll take my pelting of ice to the face and enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4.3/-8.2 Chilly out there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 degrees Fallston. Wind chill -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Note NWS saying travel will be nearly impossible..... This is correct with the rates before the flip, then the glaciation from the sleet mauling. Godspeed to everyone who has to travel Sunday. The plows will NOT keep up. My SIL is a hospital obgyn who works in DC, she's on shift starting Sunday night. She's gotta get there for the babies .... Good luck to all the parents who need to get to a hospital. Everyone else, stay home! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 A balmy 4° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 degrees! That’s really cold for mby! Looks like a very thumpy 0z euro. The NAMS are the earliest flip for DC right after 12z whereas the rgem, cmc, euro, and hrrr push it closer to 16z or 17z. Let’s hope the NAMs are still figuring out the Synoptics a bit. Either way, it’s gonna snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Mods - time for a separate obs thread for temps and radar hallucinations and then precip stuff as the storm arrives? would keep this thread clean for the NAM cliffdivers to die in peace…. 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8F. Coldest of the season (obvs), and wind is still blowing a bit. I’d say we open a new thread after 12z runs today. So 2pm-ish. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The only reason I’d be mad at the NAMs if they are right is because I wanna actually get some daylight heavy snow, 12z is basically sunrise. Hopefully we can hold off, this air mass is legit and maybe that’ll buy us some more time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Mods - time for a separate obs thread for temps and radar hallucinations and then precip stuff as the storm arrives? would keep this thread clean for the NAM cliffdivers to die in peace…. Whatever the other mods want to do. I’ll be away for a bit, have to get kiddo ready in hair/makeup for a dance competition rehearsal day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6Z euro is ripping at 12z, looks great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Whatever the other mods want to do. I’ll be away for a bit, have to get kiddo ready in hair/makeup for a dance competition rehearsal day WxUSAF suggests hold on til this PM so hold we shall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WB 6Z EURO AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6Z euro big again easily 8-10 for the metros. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WB 6Z EURO 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 But this is morphing into a nowcasting event, short range models, and ops. I love the HRRR, wrap that baby up and call it a storm, but I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Whatever the other mods want to do. I’ll be away for a bit, have to get kiddo ready in hair/makeup for a dance competition rehearsal day Hope it goes well! My daughter has her mock comp today too! Happy to get it in before the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Obviously I don't buy what the Euro is selling on the freezing rain, that being said, it appears as though freezing rain chances are increasing. I see it on the GFS and HRRR for sure. Not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Stage is set! Arctic air - check. Sitting at -4.7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/2 of the ZR output on the Euro would be a bad ice storm for the DC metro. Hoping it’s wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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