Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You don't know the answer? Wow   

Come on man Im a milk man not a weather man 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Starting with the words rgem lost is bad marketing

Not when you're selling the truth. 

Here's a link to the 6z GGEM. Also very close to 0z.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Since you are at 4 degrees I I think you will have a 14:1 sleet ratio

Thanks Mr. mix 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Come on man Im a milk man not a weather man 

Actually, I  was trying to convey that I didn't have the scientific answer myself with the emoji, but I would certainly think sleet comes in different shapes and sizes to effect accumulations some. But since sleet is generally 3:1, you probably wouldn't notice a big difference between 2.5:1 and 3.5:1.

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1?

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not when you're selling the truth. 

Here's a link to the 6z GGEM. Also very close to 0z.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off

Just a reminder that the map is 10:1, so you would think Kuchera would increase it some.

[WVclimo]

4° with a DP of -11

wind chill of -9

[GreyHat]

11F

Feels like 1F

Wind chill -2

Winds NW 10 gust 18

[Interstate]

6.4/-5.5

[hstorm]

At least for the DC suburbs, 6z RGEM looks slightly colder and slightly snowier than 0z. 
 

8.2/-5.8

[dailylurker]

Just now, hstorm said:

At least for the DC suburbs, 6z RGEM looks slightly colder and slightly snowier than 0z. 

The models held the line for the lowlands and DC area. I'll take my pelting of ice to the face and enjoy it.

[Wxdavis5784]

4.3/-8.2

Chilly out there!

[North Balti Zen]

8 degrees Fallston. Wind chill -6

[Paleocene]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Note NWS saying travel will be nearly impossible.....

This is correct with the rates before the flip, then the glaciation from the sleet mauling. Godspeed to everyone who has to travel Sunday. The plows will NOT keep up.

My SIL is a hospital obgyn who works in DC, she's on shift starting Sunday night. She's gotta get there for the babies .... Good luck to all the parents who need to get to a hospital. Everyone else, stay home!

[mappy]

A balmy 4° 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 degrees! That’s really cold for mby! Looks like a very thumpy 0z euro.  The NAMS are the earliest flip for DC right after 12z whereas the rgem, cmc, euro, and hrrr push it closer to 16z or 17z.  Let’s hope the NAMs are still figuring out the Synoptics a bit.  Either way, it’s gonna snow! 

[North Balti Zen]

Mods - time for a separate obs thread for temps and radar hallucinations and then precip stuff as the storm arrives?

would keep this thread clean for the NAM cliffdivers to die in peace….

[WxUSAF]

8F. Coldest of the season (obvs), and wind is still blowing a bit.

I’d say we open a new thread after 12z runs today. So 2pm-ish.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The only reason I’d be mad at the NAMs if they are right is because I wanna actually get some daylight heavy snow, 12z is basically sunrise.  Hopefully we can hold off, this air mass is legit and maybe that’ll buy us some more time!

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Mods - time for a separate obs thread for temps and radar hallucinations and then precip stuff as the storm arrives?

would keep this thread clean for the NAM cliffdivers to die in peace….

Whatever the other mods want to do. I’ll be away for a bit, have to get kiddo ready in hair/makeup for a dance competition rehearsal day 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6Z euro is ripping at 12z,

looks great. 

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Whatever the other mods want to do. I’ll be away for a bit, have to get kiddo ready in hair/makeup for a dance competition rehearsal day 

WxUSAF suggests hold on til this PM so hold we shall. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6Z euro big again easily 8-10 for the metros. 

[Weather Will]

 WB 6Z EURO

[RevWarReenactor]

But this is morphing into a nowcasting event, short range models, and ops. I love the HRRR, wrap that baby up and call it a storm,  but I don't buy it. 

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Whatever the other mods want to do. I’ll be away for a bit, have to get kiddo ready in hair/makeup for a dance competition rehearsal day 

Hope it goes well! My daughter has her mock comp today too! Happy to get it in before the snow.

[RevWarReenactor]

Obviously I don't buy what the Euro is selling on the freezing rain, that being said, it appears as though freezing rain chances are increasing. I see it on the GFS and HRRR for sure. Not great.

[katabatic]

Stage is set! Arctic air - check. Sitting at -4.7

[SnowGolfBro]

1/2 of the ZR output on the Euro would be a bad ice storm for the DC metro. Hoping it’s wrong