Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Eskimo Joe]

Like 2/3rds of the US is a glacier for the next two weeks. Amazing.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

I imagine that’s worse? but didn’t see 12z

An inch or little less in general.

[frd]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Like 2/3rds of the US is a glacier for the next two weeks. Amazing.

Will prolong the deep arctic mass across a large area of the US and allow for less moderation. Almost a cold feedback cycle. 

[wxmvpete]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Like 2/3rds of the US is a glacier for the next two weeks. Amazing.

Read about it here for a national view: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

[clskinsfan]

The precip in the middle of the country certainly looks more robust than any model I have seen at initialization. Tons of juice out there. 

[SnowenOutThere]

32 minutes ago, bncho said:

(there's more for baltimore north)

Hmmm need that southern cutoff to be 50 miles further south and then I'll trade it in for the Euro. 

[hstorm]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

An inch or little less in general.

Ukie did its weird p-type thing again on this run (panels of snow after the flip). Not as extreme as at 12z. But still there. So not sure how much to trust either the 12z or 18z snow map. 

[jayyy]

Internal model snow ratio map is even better than Kuchera. It’s very hefty with the front end thump. Wish it wasn’t at range, but something we’ll be monitoring is the QPF distribution on guidance to the lead up. If they stay juiced, that will be a major plus for snowfall and beating back the mixing line due to evaporative cooling in the layer between 850-700mb. 

It’s output makes sense given what it does over the next 24 hours out west… but boy, is it on an island… let’s see a RAP run like this tomorrow and we’ll maybe be onto something. It has a wicked front end thump

[jayyy]

Just got done with work. Glad to see things primarily held from earlier

[bncho]

I have a feeling that once you wake up Sunday morning you’ll probably know the general outcome of this storm.

[jayyy]

HERPDYDERP looking good. Again, these are at mega range for HRDPS/RAP/HRRR etc so take with a grain of salt

[Jebman]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The precip in the middle of the country certainly looks more robust than any model I have seen at initialization. Tons of juice out there. 

65/64 air feeding right into the developing storm, straight outta South Central TX.

[T. August]

Honestly doesn’t really matter too much but GEFS is a slight improvement for southern areas.

[Wetbulbs88]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

HERPDYDERP looking good. Again, these are at mega range for HRDPS/RAP/HRRR etc so take with a grain of salt

Glad I’m not the only one who pronounces the HRDPS like this in my head 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

AI GFS shift south

Looks pretty much the same to me, but since the highest temp here is 28 vs 29 on the previous run, its souther!

[WxUSAF]

I feel like we’re just windshield wipering a bit now. With 12z we thought maybe we were inching in a better direction and now 18 has been mixed. Seems like mostly it will come down to how thumpy things are and when we precisely change to sleet. 

[jayyy]

Feeling pretty good about 10-12”+ in my backyard. Call me crazy but I still think the Columbia and EC area has a SHOT at a foot if the RAP is onto something with the mega thump to kick things off.

[clskinsfan]

GEFS snow depth mean is still nuts. It definitely decreased from 12Z though. 

[CAPE]

Just now, jayyy said:

Feeling pretty good about 10-12”+ in my backyard. Call me crazy but I still think the Columbia and EC area has a SHOT at a foot if the RAP is onto something with the mega thump to kick things off.

6-12 is the forecast for here. I will expect closer to 6, but if precip comes in hot and heavy as some runs have shown, upside might be better.

[RDM]

Been working outside all day at home.  The front went through a while ago with a burst of wind from near dead calm conditions.  The gust was clearly cooler than the ambient air it was replacing..  How much I don't know - but it was a pretty cool experience we don't get much around here..  

[IceCAPS]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

Will prolong the deep arctic mass across a large area of the US and allow for less moderation. Almost a cold feedback cycle. 

I'm so glad to see this.  I've always thought or assumed that snowpack positively impacts ground temps (or negatively depending on how one would view it) so seeing this confirms an idea I've never been able to confirm as gospel... so, thank for this, frd!

[Weather Will]

WN 18Z EURO AI

[Chris78]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WN 18Z EURO AI

Will- how does that compare to 12z

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Will- how does that compare to 12z

WB 12Z EURO Ai about the same.

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

18z normal EURO a hold.

[Chris78]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO Ai about the same.

That's 18z lol

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO Ai about the same.

That’s 18z again, but regardless they’re very close. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Feeling pretty good about 10-12”+ in my backyard. Call me crazy but I still think the Columbia and EC area has a SHOT at a foot if the RAP is onto something with the mega thump to kick things off.

I think 12” is pretty unlikely unless we hold onto good ratios for awhile or something early. For eastern HoCo, I think 6-8” of snow and 1-3” of sleet. So I think double digit accumulations are certainly possible. Max snow DEPTH might never much exceed 6-7” though. Once the pingers start, we’ll compact a lot

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z normal EURO a hold.

It might flip DC an hour later. Every little bit counts 

since euro refuses to sleet I’ll show the ice 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z normal EURO a hold.

One post about the euro 24-30 hours out. Lol. We’re all so freaking exhausted by this storm. Meet you in the LR thread??