Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[konksw]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs!  
 

hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z 

HRRR? I know it’s far out for it but…

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Bro, no. I'm at work from 8 pm Sat., to 8 pm. Mon. I want to go home at some point.

Luckily its the ICON showing that... for now 

[Buddy1987]

One of these models is going to epically fail here. GFS and RGEM and really HRRR have been consistently dropping the front end hammer. NAM and some of the short term high res models, along with EURO are insistent on a much quicker flip and almost deadly dang freezing rain in a sense, based on some of the storm totals.

[TSSN+]

How anyone can even talk about the Nam seriously is hilarious. Just in comparison here’s the last 3 runs of Rgem and Nam for current 6hrs Rgem pretty steady, nam not so much 

 

[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs!  
 

hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z 

Exactly. As noted in the past, when models start losing ground to warm nose intrusions they have a hard time reversing course (meaning they picked up on something). We want to see improvement every step of the way until go time. We do not have much longer for improvements! And we have been slowly and sometimes not so slowly losing ground every step of the way. The pull north could kill it! And I was not worried about freezing rain at all until now. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. 
WTF

I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

One of these models is going to epically fail here. GFS and RGEM have been consistently dropping the front end hammer. NAM and some of the short term high res models, along with EURO are insistent on a much quicker flip and almost deadly dang freezing rain in a sense, based on some of the storm totals.

I think also, the NAM is showing much less in terms of the front end big QPF/snow thump?  That is, it's a bit drier during the "key" period and only gets heavier after the flip.  We're essentially guaranteed to flip to...something (hopefully sleet, not freezing rain!)...but we need to maximize the QPF Saturday night into Sunday and hopefully hold off any flip until 15-18Z if we can manage.  The last Euro (and its AI counterpart), I thought, wasn't too bad overall?  It still had a solid thump of snow. Certainly better than the NAM and the RRFS I think as well.

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

How anyone can even talk about the Nam seriously is hilarious. Just in comparison here’s the last 3 runs of Rgem and Nam for current 6hrs Rgem pretty steady, nam not so much 

 

 

 

All fine and dandy until you start realizing that it does an ok job seeing warm air intrusions. Amounts may be off a lot of times, but for us, it does hold weight... have seen it many times. You cannot ignore it. I do not think it is in its wheelhouse yet, but pretty close and probably we can really weight it more tonight. Already though, it should give pause. It is a completely viable option. We live in a place where it is super hard to get good clean snow from start to end.. we do mixing very well.. so don't be so sure. 

 

[mikeeng92]

Quite the language from Wakefield:

KEY MESSAGES... 1) A devastating winter storm for a large portion of the area will impact the region Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain expected.

 

These amounts of the combined wintry precip will lead
to devastating impacts and widespread power outages and tree damage.
Very cold temperatures and windy conditions early next week will
lead to long last impacts.

[NorthArlington101]

I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. 
WTF
I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!  

This might just be vibes but in my head I could make a compelling case the GEM suite has been the most consistent the last 48 hours. I feel like it shot things way north first but still always have DC-north a compelling 6-10” floor. Idk what 500mb looks like

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

All fine and dandy until you start realizing that it does an ok job seeing warm air intrusions. Amounts may be off a lot of times, but for us, it does hold weight... have seen it many times. You cannot ignore it. I do not think it is in its wheelhouse yet, but pretty close and probably we can really weight it more tonight. Already though, it should give pause. It is a completely viable option. We live in a place where it is super hard to get good clean snow from start to end.. we do mixing very well.. so don't be so sure. 

 

Doesn't matter what it shows when it is wrong. This model has bigger jumps on it inside 24hrs sometime. Seen it bust 24hr forecasts multiple times. Ya tomorrow 12Z it should have a handle on the actual system and then would use for thermals. 

[Solution Man]

Happy Hour

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. 
WTF

I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!  

We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?

[Solution Man]

Just now, CAPE said:

We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?

Fantastic hobby

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Happy Hour

Let’s get crushed by the GFS and let it be the beacon of consistency/improvement we like/need. 

[stormtracker]

GFS on deck and running

[Random Chaos]

Those are some crazy snowfall rates at 11am Sunday on the RGEM.

[high risk]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

How anyone can even talk about the Nam seriously is hilarious. Just in comparison here’s the last 3 runs of Rgem and Nam for current 6hrs Rgem pretty steady, nam not so much 

 

        There are plenty of valid arguments against the NAM, but making that point by showing changes across cycles of an forecast of what the lowest level radar reflectivity will look like at one particular moment, and then comparing that to a 6h-averaged precip rate from a different model doesn't make your case.

[umdterps29]

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Those are some crazy snowfall rates at 11am Sunday on the RGEM.

Would be puking snow into sleet in a matter of seconds for us in Annapolis

[Solution Man]

Playing Weather Model Roulette with no odd or even or black or red 

[Interstate]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

Would be puking snow into sleet in a matter of seconds for us in Annapolis

That is what usually say... The big flakes are right near the change over line.

[CAPE]

Its gonna snow. Its going to be the most we have seen this winter. Yes it will sleet and be icy too, and for some rain a bit, but everyone will see several inches. Quit moaning if you expected a foot and it isnt realistic anymore. Enjoy what you get- it isnt going anywhere for a week- and we have the potential big dog coastal storm to track for next weekend. The tracking never ends when we have a favorable pattern. Rather have a shit the blinds pattern with nothing?

[stormtracker]

GFS about the same so far

[stormtracker]

[Solution Man]

HP to the north little hiigher at 21

[NorthArlington101]

It’s a hair wetter by hr40. Could also just be faster. Both ok with me

[NorthArlington101]

We’re not gonna have any problems with this GFS run

[Solution Man]

Hmm

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s a hair wetter by hr40. Could also just be faster. Both ok with me

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We’re not gonna have any problems with this GFS run

You need to get to know us better then