wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then... Everyone is still getting a front end thump. 4-6-10 (SE-I-95-BlueRidge). My main concern is actually how much WAA we get in the lower levels. Sleet is a pain but can be plowed and shoveled. Freezing Rain? Whole other ball game. Right now I'm leaning "Sleet-Fest Sunday" but it's close for our southern friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Bets on the GFS caving.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH it's very wet. Luge time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, feloniousq said: Dr. U said he'd rather be in Chicago. Chicago has now gone from zero snow Sunday to more snow than us. So let him go to Chicago.. who gives a rats ass 2 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, wxmeddler said: Everyone is still getting a front end thump. 4-6-10 (SE-I-95-BlueRidge). My main concern is actually how much WAA we get in the lower levels. Sleet is a pain but can be plowed and shoveled. Freezing Rain? Whole other ball game. Right now I'm leaning "Sleet-Fest Sunday" but it's close for our southern friends. So what we saw on the Euro shouldn't fall off a cliff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Nomz said: I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state. Exactly. Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen. But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot! It's a Nina! I better start backing off on snow amounts!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver) free crushed ice? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. Why bet on a foregone conclusion? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. Since the HRW FV3 still holds onto a similar idea at 00z, I'm thinking we get at least one more stubborn run out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. I think it holds. Been consistent for 4 runs in a row. More consistent then most other models have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. I honestly think it holds... just to tease us longer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. It'll likely start tonight. It was always going to - just a matter of when. At least it gave us a little hope for a bit... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. I say it holds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, Nomz said: I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state. What I'm saying is when trying to track a storm in a nina and you're 72 hours out...the complications that are most likely getting in the way are always the same: NS disruptions because it's simply too busy in ninas. What we're seeing now is no different: Too much phasing, too little...this GL low got in the way, this ns feature interfered at the wrong time, and on and on. I'd bet if we had this same slug of stj moisture coming right at us in a Niño with cold in place, it would be nice and simple. That's why I feel like enso state does play a role in what we see when we track a storm like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I think it holds. Been consistent for 4 runs in a row. More consistent then most other models have been We're gonna get the cave. It's just a matter of when. It's on its own. We want it to be right, but we all know better. Or should know better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Anybody still laughing at Dr. U? No one should be laughing at anyone. Nor should anyone be saying things like "Anyone laughing at Dr. U now?" when not a flake has fallen and the NWS office in Chicago is discussing their snow prospects like this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH RGEM lost all credibility for me when it showed like 65” in MD a few years ago about 6 hours out from storm start. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Nomz said: I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state. Bro. Look at he models 72 hours ago!!! We got BURIED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Exactly. Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen. But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot! It's a Nina! I better start backing off on snow amounts!" Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bets on the GFS caving.. Not tonight. The US is holding on to all the recon data to make us look good. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: No one should be laughing at anyone. Nor should anyone be saying things like "Anyone laughing at Dr. U now?" when not a flake has fallen and the NWS office in Chicago is discussing their snow prospects like this: You wanna place a friendly bet with me on whether you get more snow in Towson than ORD does through Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Nomz said: But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe. How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, clskinsfan said: You wanna place a friendly bet with me on whether you get more snow in Towson than ORD does through Sunday? Sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I say it holds. I’m kinda thinking that too tbh. Maybe a subtle tick north. The difference between the models at this point seems like subtle differences in when the phasing with that unraveling Baja low occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now... La Niña creates tricky storms. I don't think it's bad to keep in mind the ENSO phase when forecasting discrete events. Though we've had such a strong northern branch the last decade, we're all familiar with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 So far thru 42 not much of a change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right? But when we get to this point, all that stuff is baked into the models already. If they're presenting the same on models, they have the same chance of going north or south regardless of the temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're gonna get the cave. It's just a matter of when. It's on its own. We want it to be right, but we all know better. Or should know better Same thru 45? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Wow looks like my parents end up with more snow than DC from this system...and they live in Detroit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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