Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,635
    Total Members
    25,819
    Most Online
    Donut Hole
    Newest Member
    Donut Hole
    Joined

January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2


mappy
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This storm it’s going to be a beast all around. Wow. VA likely going to be under state of emergency soon 

South Va and probably much of NC. So much damned ICE.

South central TX is also going to get some ZR and sleet, along with freezing weather. Sun night we might hit 10 degrees without the wind. This system is going to be one frigid slippery dangerous killer beast. I hope not but there are likely to be pileups all over the ice areas.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I hope so for Richmonds sake. Low 20 degree temps during that too. It is bad news as modeled for them. 

Hopefully it'll be mostly sleet as the warm layer is pretty high up allowing for a  ~5k foot cold layer that maybe deep and cold enough to refreeze raindrops before they hit the surface. 

I saw this skiing at Mt. Tremblant where it was 15f at the summit with freezing rain while ~2000 ft below in the village it was a heavy sleet storm. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Terrible for RIC, LYN, ROA, etc. And yes we are part of this forum.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Ive been wondering where Richmond goes.  It doesnt seem to fut into the SE group and this forum ignores it as well.  "Central VA" typically includes Richmond but you wouldn't know from maps that ignore it.  FWIW, the models have consistently transformed most North Carolina into a skating rink.  Now up to Richmond.  I do think northward trend of ZR has stopped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ? :) 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ? :) 

This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet. 

  • Like 2
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DDweatherman said:

This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet. 

Oh man, are they in for a treat! You are in an excellent spot too for this one. Any good places to stay around your parts by chance? I am really looking into a chase out in that direction. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Oh man, are they in for a treat! You are in an excellent spot too for this one. Any good places to stay around your parts by chance? I am really looking into a chase out in that direction. 

I feel like there are some good places in the Gettysburg area that would be a fun spot for this. What kind of place are you looking for? 

If I don't answer in a minute, I will in first thing in the AM. It's been a long day and I might doze off here in a sec. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ? :) 

I WOULD say bring it - we have plenty of space - but being in the BR, I can't guarantee that you'll be able to get out before Tues or maybe even Wed. :P 

In 2016 it took them 3 days to get to us with large bulldozers driving down the middle of the road. Dump trucks couldn't push it. 

  • omg 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm gathering this was posted already... but LWX says SLRs to start at 15:1 for the entire region in their AFD

930pm evening AFD update snippet

One thing to note regarding this evening`s guidance is that
there has been a northern and western push which favors wintry
mix across southern MD and central VA. The uncertainty remains
in how far north this mix line evolves given the track of system
whether it`s further to west or south of the region. The ECMWF,
ICON, GFS, GEM, GEFS, and EPS illustrate this in different
variations with a the highest probabilities of ice (i.e.,
sleet/some freezing rain) in the aformentioned areas above. Each
of these solutions do have a variation of sleet mixing with
snow and making it as far north as the I-95 corridor as the
system kicks out Sunday afternoon. The probability of 0.01" of
ice remains between 10 to 20 percent along I-66/US-50 and into
I-95 north and east of DC. These values jump up to 25 to 35
percent across southern MD and central VA where slightly warmer
air aloft/dry slotting may win out.

The probabilities for significant/impactful snow have not changed a
whole lot with the entire area seeing 65 to 85 percent probs of 6 to
8 inches snow. These probabilities drop down to 35 to 60 percent for
a foot of snow, especially in the climo favored zones along and
west of I-95 as well as down into northern Shenandoah
Valley/Allegheny Mountains. This signal has trended upward in
the last few runs, especially on the ECMWF/ECS as well as GEPS
compared to the GEFS which focus this axis a bit further south.
Of course these numbers will go up or down based upon any mixing
that may occur.

Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15:1 with this system for
the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 10:1
and perhaps slightly lower Sunday morning into the afternoon as
some mixing occurs. The pending dry slot could also play into
this as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly
within the initial warm advection conveyor belt. Expect some
crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that may occur as
the system kicks out during the second half of Sunday.

Now is the time for the public to make preparations for the
storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or
medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into
early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency
kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and
blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel your
car before the storm hits. Check on elederly friends/neighbors
and don`t forget about your pets during this prolonged cold
period.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Watches up from Wakefield 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075-509>513-515-517-519-521-
221500-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western
Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is
  increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may
  result in major impacts in infrastructure and transportation.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central,
  and north central Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. The combination of significant
  snow and ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause
  widespread and long-lasting power outages.
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...