January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Scraff]

Good morning everyone! Let’s hope the Weather Channel is as “accurate and dependable” as they’ve claimed since the dawn of time. Even better news though—the curse of Jim Cantore went to NYC. So DC is a safe snow zone now.  
 

ETA: The dark purple is the 12-18”

[yoda]

As of 10 minutes ago 

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

As of 10 minutes ago 

 

They got to be leaning on gfs. I am curious what the warnings will read later. 

[Weather Will]

Don't know if it means anything for us, but WB 12Z HRRR is a tick south at  HR 31 compared to 6Z in Midwest 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Don't know if it means anything, but WB 12Z HRRR is a tick south at  HR 31 compared to 6Z in Midwest 

I think we are more worried about the orientation of the precipitation field... but that looks better too.

[umdterps29]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z.  If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros.  

Has the 12z run already or are you referring to the one from early this morning???

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

Has the 12z run already or are you referring to the one from early this morning???

06z run, it's kinda the boom scenario model for us right now.  Big dumping of heavy snow before the transition. 

[Solution Man]

[LVblizzard]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z runs are running.  Most important run of 2026 since 6Z....
 

WB 12Z HRRR

 

Not sure how much it matters or if it’ll even translate to the other 12z runs, but there is a major change at H5 by hour 30. The northern stream is not digging anywhere near as much as it was at 6z. There’s also a better press of mid level cold air.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

As of 10 minutes ago 

 

This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z.  If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros.  

This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. 
 

As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1. 

[NorthArlington101]

This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway.

Believe this does include sleet, based on previous discussions in here.

[IUsedToHateCold]

We know where the deathbands will be. It's all down to snow climo now. 

A southward/suppressive trend wouldn't surprise me towards game time (it is Nina climo, right?) but we definitely don't want too much of it. 

My call:

DC: 10-12

Baltimore/My Yard: 11-13

Columbia: 13-15

Frederick: 16-18

Hagerstown: 20

[SnowenOutThere]

Good to see some positive trends with the 6z suite. Let’s hope they continue for 12z!

[TSSN+]

HRRR at hour 48

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway.

No, this is the sleet

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

No as this is the sleet

No that is freezing rain 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

No as this is the sleet

I believe this is meant to depict freezing rain

ETA: ninja’d

[Weather Will]

WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday

[PrinceFrederickWx]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Believe this does include sleet, based on previous discussions in here.

They should change the map title to 'expected snowfall and sleetfall' (is that even a word?) 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday

Looked primed to dump some snow! 

[Solution Man]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I believe this is meant to depict freezing rain

Correct, my bad 

[TSSN+]

Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

They should change the map title to 'expected snowfall and sleetfall' (is that even a word?) 

Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole 

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Looked primed to dump some snow! 

Good start to 12Z.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

They should change the map title to 'expected snowfall and sleetfall' (is that even a word?) 

 

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole 

Correct. Sleet is measured and counted as snow officially. So a snow map would include sleet accumulations 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, TheColtrane said:

If only there was a world where NWS could label their maps properly.

It clearly says ice 

[LP08]

Like the early frames on the NAM.  Better tilt out west will hopefully bring the WAA a little heavier.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NBM para 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole 

 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Correct. Sleet is measured and counted as snow officially. So a snow map would include sleet accumulations 

I actually didn’t know this- I was wondering how I was going to report it. Thanks!

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. 
 

As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1. 

FWIW, I think HRRR soundings support this pretty well by eye.