Scraff Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Good morning everyone! Let’s hope the Weather Channel is as “accurate and dependable” as they’ve claimed since the dawn of time. Even better news though—the curse of Jim Cantore went to NYC. So DC is a safe snow zone now. ETA: The dark purple is the 12-18” 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 As of 10 minutes ago 7 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, yoda said: As of 10 minutes ago They got to be leaning on gfs. I am curious what the warnings will read later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Don't know if it means anything for us, but WB 12Z HRRR is a tick south at HR 31 compared to 6Z in Midwest 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Don't know if it means anything, but WB 12Z HRRR is a tick south at HR 31 compared to 6Z in Midwest I think we are more worried about the orientation of the precipitation field... but that looks better too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z. If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros. Has the 12z run already or are you referring to the one from early this morning??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, umdterps29 said: Has the 12z run already or are you referring to the one from early this morning??? 06z run, it's kinda the boom scenario model for us right now. Big dumping of heavy snow before the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z runs are running. Most important run of 2026 since 6Z.... WB 12Z HRRR Not sure how much it matters or if it’ll even translate to the other 12z runs, but there is a major change at H5 by hour 30. The northern stream is not digging anywhere near as much as it was at 6z. There’s also a better press of mid level cold air. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, yoda said: As of 10 minutes ago This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z. If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros. This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway.Believe this does include sleet, based on previous discussions in here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 We know where the deathbands will be. It's all down to snow climo now. A southward/suppressive trend wouldn't surprise me towards game time (it is Nina climo, right?) but we definitely don't want too much of it. My call: DC: 10-12 Baltimore/My Yard: 11-13 Columbia: 13-15 Frederick: 16-18 Hagerstown: 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Good to see some positive trends with the 6z suite. Let’s hope they continue for 12z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 HRRR at hour 48 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway. No, this is the sleet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: No as this is the sleet No that is freezing rain 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: No as this is the sleet I believe this is meant to depict freezing rain ETA: ninja’d 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Believe this does include sleet, based on previous discussions in here. They should change the map title to 'expected snowfall and sleetfall' (is that even a word?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Weather Will said: WB HRRR at range 7am Sunday Looked primed to dump some snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I believe this is meant to depict freezing rain Correct, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: They should change the map title to 'expected snowfall and sleetfall' (is that even a word?) Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, TSSN+ said: Looked primed to dump some snow! Good start to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: They should change the map title to 'expected snowfall and sleetfall' (is that even a word?) 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole Correct. Sleet is measured and counted as snow officially. So a snow map would include sleet accumulations 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, TheColtrane said: If only there was a world where NWS could label their maps properly. It clearly says ice 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Like the early frames on the NAM. Better tilt out west will hopefully bring the WAA a little heavier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 12Z NBM para 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Sleet is considered snow. If you ever look in any nws adv or warning it says expected snow and sleet accumulations as a whole 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Correct. Sleet is measured and counted as snow officially. So a snow map would include sleet accumulations I actually didn’t know this- I was wondering how I was going to report it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1. FWIW, I think HRRR soundings support this pretty well by eye. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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