January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

[wxmeddler]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then...

Everyone is still getting a front end thump. 4-6-10 (SE-I-95-BlueRidge). My main concern is actually how much WAA we get in the lower levels. Sleet is a pain but can be plowed and shoveled. Freezing Rain? Whole other ball game. Right now I'm leaning "Sleet-Fest Sunday" but it's close for our southern friends.

[stormtracker]

Bets on the GFS caving..

[balltermen]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

it's very wet.  Luge time  

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

Dr. U said he'd rather be in Chicago.  Chicago has now gone from zero snow Sunday to more snow than us.

So let him go to Chicago.. who gives a rats ass

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Everyone is still getting a front end thump. 4-6-10 (SE-I-95-BlueRidge). My main concern is actually how much WAA we get in the lower levels. Sleet is a pain but can be plowed and shoveled. Freezing Rain? Whole other ball game. Right now I'm leaning "Sleet-Fest Sunday" but it's close for our southern friends.

So what we saw on the Euro shouldn't fall off a cliff?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Nomz said:

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

Exactly.  Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen.  But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot!  It's a Nina!  I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

[caviman2201]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver)

free crushed ice?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

Why bet on a foregone conclusion?

[baltosquid]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

Since the HRW FV3 still holds onto a similar idea at 00z, I'm thinking we get at least one more stubborn run out of it.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

I think it holds. Been consistent for  4 runs in a row. More consistent then most other models have been

[WVsnowlover]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

To quote "Die Hard"...put me down for 20, I'm good for it!

[caviman2201]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

I honestly think it holds... just to tease us longer

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

It'll likely start tonight. It was always going to - just a matter of when.

At least it gave us a little hope for a bit...

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

I say it holds. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

What I'm saying is when trying to track a storm in a nina and you're 72 hours out...the complications that are most likely getting in the way are always the same: NS disruptions because it's simply too busy in ninas. What we're seeing now is no different: Too much phasing, too little...this GL low got in the way, this ns feature interfered at the wrong time, and on and on. I'd bet if we had this same slug of stj moisture coming right at us in a Niño with cold in place, it would be nice and simple. That's why I feel like enso state does play a role in what we see when we track a storm like this.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I think it holds. Been consistent for  4 runs in a row. More consistent then most other models have been

We're gonna get the cave.  It's just a matter of when.  It's on its own.  We want it to be right, but we all know better. Or should know better

[TowsonWeather]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anybody still laughing at Dr. U?

No one should be laughing at anyone. 

Nor should anyone be saying things like "Anyone laughing at Dr. U now?" when not a flake has fallen and the NWS office in Chicago is discussing their snow prospects like this:

[nj2va]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

RGEM lost all credibility for me when it showed like 65” in MD a few years ago about 6 hours out from storm start.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

Bro. Look at he models 72 hours ago!!! We got BURIED

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Exactly.  Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen.  But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot!  It's a Nina!  I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now...

[Interstate]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on the GFS caving..

Not tonight. The US is holding on to all the recon data to make us look good. 

[Nomz]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up.

But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

No one should be laughing at anyone. 

Nor should anyone be saying things like "Anyone laughing at Dr. U now?" when not a flake has fallen and the NWS office in Chicago is discussing their snow prospects like this:

You wanna place a friendly bet with me on whether you get more snow in Towson than ORD does through Sunday?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe.

How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right?

[Scraff]

Bring it!

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

You wanna place a friendly bet with me on whether you get more snow in Towson than ORD does through Sunday?

Sure!

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I say it holds. 

I’m kinda thinking that too tbh. Maybe a subtle tick north. The difference between the models at this point seems like subtle differences in when the phasing with that unraveling Baja low occurs.

[balltermen]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now...

La Niña creates tricky storms.  I don't think it's bad to keep in mind the ENSO phase when forecasting discrete events. Though we've had such a strong northern branch the last decade, we're all familiar with these setups.