January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Nams a touch cooler at 48hrs with heights down a touch.

850s def colder. 0 line dropped south at least 50-100 miles. 

[SnowtoRain]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Goddamn Mt Holly going big. I guess they think the Sat night thump is gonna be legit for the coastal plain... like 1-3" per hour lol

I would be interested to know what they are looking at to make that prediction. I haven't seen the midshore above 12" on any model run recently.

[Weather Will]

HR 51

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

HR 51

Come on bring those heavies on in. 

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Exactly. @high risk already mentioned this would be ran on Saturday 1/24

thx. I've missed a lot of posts.  he would be the man who knows. 

 

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

To straighten things up.
There are only two versions of the NAM Nest. The regular 'ol 12k NAM and the hi-res 3k NAM. There is no such thing as a 1.33k NAM (that I know of).

The 3k NAM should start to get into range for this storm by 0z tomorrow night, where it starts to enter its useful range.

Hoped that helped.

 

        Apologies for bursting your bubble, but @wxmeddler is correct.    There is a 1.33 km relocatable NAM Nest used for fire weather purposes that can be used for other types of events during non-fire-weather season.    There used to be graphics online, but I don't think that there are anymore.    And I think they've stopped running it for events like these. 

 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nams a touch cooler at 48hrs with heights down a touch.

Its a lot colder. But it is a touch slower too. What a PIA game this is. 

[Weather Will]

HR 54

[Eskimo Joe]

Through HR51, the surface high and subsequent CAD seems stronger on the 00z NAM.

[mob1]

We'll see when the money frames come out, but so far the NAM seems marginally improved. 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12K NAM HR 48

Hmm lowered heights.  That's better!!

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Exactly. @high risk already mentioned this would be ran on Saturday 1/24

   No, no, sorry.   I clearly wasn't nearly as clever as I thought with that post.   I am expecting that the happy hour NAM Nest cycle right before the storm will go bonkers.   

[stormtracker]

Hopefully 57 is snow..

 

 

[Weather Will]

57

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hopefully 57 is snow..

 

Oh it’s easily snow for DC. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

   No, no, sorry.   I clearly wasn't nearly as clever as I thought with that post.   I am expecting that the happy hour NAM Nest cycle right before the storm will go bonkers.   

Ahh, my bad. And there you had me all excited.

[Ji]

Nams a touch cooler at 48hrs with heights down a touch.

We need more than a touch

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

        Apologies for bursting your bubble, but @wxmeddler is correct.    There is a 1.33 km relocatable NAM Nest used for fire weather purposes that can be used for other types of events during non-fire-weather season.    There used to be graphics online, but I don't think that there are anymore.    And I think they've stopped running it for events like these. 

 

No worries! I come here to learn. If you correct me on things that I get wrong, that's more than fine with me!

[Ji]

850s def colder. 0 line dropped south at least 50-100 miles. 

That’s a tick!

[87storms]

Looks like this run is a little south, almost as if the nam is caving to the euro/gfs.  Shocking development.

[Weather Will]

HR 60 changeover in DC; will compare to 3K when it is out that far.

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Hopefully the QPF amounts are better, after 18Z was rather anemic.  That seems to be the biggest thing if we want a solid thump of heavy snow before any flip to sleet/ice.

[Miss Pixee]

What are expected rates per hour? Is 2" possible during the heaviest time frame?

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

HR 60 changeover in DC

So that’s 4z-12z or 8 hours of snowfall before the flip. 

[Ji]

700s and 850s below 0 at 12z. Why the sleet

[wasnow215]

27 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

   The AI ensembles tend to me under dispersive even in the medium range, so it's really no surprise that you're seeing very little spread as we enter the short range.

Sorry off the topic here High Risk but since you're a met maybe you can help.

Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then?

Are they basing it solely on the Euro?

In this area many businesses and obviously hospitals etc. etc. are making some difficult decisions, grocery stores have been ransacked with everything bought off the shelves in cases, because we keep being told that we are going to have a massive ice storm, and that it's not possible but actually probable most of the area loses power.

Because let's face a few inches of snow here and then sleet that is not a big deal at all.

[Ji]

So that’s 4z-12z or 8 hours of snowfall before the flip. 

If the Nam flips the same time as the other models it would be a huge hit

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

What are expected rates per hour? Is 2" possible during the heaviest portion?

Yup especially during the strongest bands

[Weather Will]

WB 12K NAM at 63- my snow hole is back---