January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Unfortunately the ens seemingly can’t factor sleet/snow. Still a lot of total wintry precip

Not only that, but the individual panels are eerily uniform. Almost no variation in track or strength. I wonder how useful they truly are for precipitation.

[Maestrobjwa]

Not losing the floor (6-10") is the goal here...

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

OMG..not in the dreaded gray.   We've arrived people.

Honestly, weenie blinders off, this would be what I would go with rn.

This is actually a pretty good map.  Nothing crazy Looks like a good solid prediction!!!!

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not only that, but the individual panels are eerily uniform. Almost no variation in track or strength. I wonder how useful they truly are for precipitation.

 

   The AI ensembles tend to me under dispersive even in the medium range, so it's really no surprise that you're seeing very little spread as we enter the short range.

[stormtracker]

Honestly, I don't know what we're looking for, so not going to pretend.   But NAM is a smidge further west with the baja low vs 18z

[clskinsfan]

I mean the HRRR is actually tasty. Whatever. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

I'm wondering if LWX is leaning towards the GFS  a bit..  

[clskinsfan]

NAM much colder at the surface heading into the event than 18Z. We'll see what that means. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not losing the floor (6-10") is the goal here...

Hell 6 -10" would be the biggest storm I've had in about 7 years!

[mob1]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean the HRRR is actually tasty. Whatever. 

It's always far too cold/snowy in this range for this type of storm. It's a well known bias, and it can be pretty extreme sometimes. 

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not only that, but the individual panels are eerily uniform. Almost no variation in track or strength. I wonder how useful they truly are for precipitation.

I noticed that a lot of them look nearly identical!!!

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'm wondering if LWX is leaning towards the GFS  a bit..  

I think they are exaggerating totals a bit because its a high impact event with temps well below freezing and a lot of precip. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'm wondering if LWX is leaning towards the GFS  a bit..  

I don't see 10" in Easton otherwise.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Mo Snow said:

Has NWS given any reasoning why they are so bullish on amounts?

They are smartly playing to climo. People need to realize models are a tool. Not the end all be all for them. Just one piece of a puzzle they are trying to finish. 

[balltermen]

I was hoping the 1.33k NAM was being run over the Mid Atl tonight.  maybe tomorrow 12z or 0z?  

ETA - we're too far out. maybe tomorrow. 

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, Amped said:

The dry patch is my concern more than the temps. The bust scenario is we get weak sauce before the changeover.

 

32 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I now see why 18z cut snow totals for dc to Baltimore and just to the nw. Has a dry patch it’s not cause it’s too warm. 
 

Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here.  NC piedmont is a different story... 

Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol

Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then?

Are they basing it solely on the Euro?

[Mo Snow]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

They are smartly playing to climo. People need to realize models are a tool. Not the end all be all for them. Just one piece of a puzzle they are trying to finish. 

I understand that, just wondering if they have explained their climo reasoning at all anywhere

[bncho]

Just now, balltermen said:

I was hoping the 1.33k NAM was being run over the Mid Atl tonight.  maybe tomorrow 12z or 0z?  

To straighten things up.
There are only two versions of the NAM Nest. The regular 'ol 12k NAM and the hi-res 3k NAM. There is no such thing as a 1.33k NAM (that I know of).

The 3k NAM should start to get into range for this storm by 0z tomorrow night, where it starts to enter its useful range.

Hoped that helped.

[caviman2201]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.

the sloppy seconds from the inevitable Westminster death band

[CAPE]

Goddamn Mt Holly going big. I guess they think the Sat night thump is gonna be legit for the coastal plain... like 1-3" per hour lol

[Nomz]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then?

Are they basing it solely on the Euro?

Because half an inch of ice is crippling, and even the GFS shows that it's more than likely to happen. Richmond should be buckling down.

[wxmeddler]

Just now, bncho said:

There is no such thing as a 1.33k NAM (that I know of)

There is. It's the NAM Fire Nest. Not usually shown on modeling sites, but it is out there.

[Weather Will]

WB 12K NAM at HR 42 heights are tick lower over our area and there is a very heavy band of snow over southern Missouri which was not there at 18Z.

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

To straighten things up.
There are only two versions of the NAM Nest. The regular 'ol 12k NAM and the hi-res 3k NAM. There is no such thing as a 1.33k NAM (that I know of).

The 3k NAM should start to get into range for this storm by 0z tomorrow night, where it starts to enter its useful range.

Hoped that helped.

tomorrow check the model page.  for big events they'll often run the firewx (1.33km) NAM over a certain area.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[bncho]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

There is. It's the NAM Fire Nest. Not usually shown on modeling sites, but it is out there.

Ah, thanks! Looking at the NWS website it's used for tracking fires—but is it used to track snowstorms like these?

[mitchnick]

Nams a touch cooler at 48hrs with heights down a touch.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, balltermen said:

tomorrow check the model page.  for big events they'll often run the firewx (1.33km) NAM over a certain area.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

Exactly. @high risk already mentioned this would be ran on Saturday 1/24

[Weather Will]

WB 12K NAM HR 48

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.

Just like december 2013.