January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Oh man, are they in for a treat! You are in an excellent spot too for this one. Any good places to stay around your parts by chance? I am really looking into a chase out in that direction. 

I feel like there are some good places in the Gettysburg area that would be a fun spot for this. What kind of place are you looking for? 

If I don't answer in a minute, I will in first thing in the AM. It's been a long day and I might doze off here in a sec. 

[Ji]

Wow…..that’s beautiful 
 

Thank you

[MDsnowPRO]

Just now, Ji said:

Thank you

You’re welcome 

 

[T. August]

0z eps looks good to me. Really not too different. A bit more qpf.

[Berlin1926]

Oy.

[Amped]

Huge snow swath. Starts right on the continental divide in New Mexico and goes all the way past eastern Maine

[Berlin1926]

More ensembles

[yoda]

I'm gathering this was posted already... but LWX says SLRs to start at 15:1 for the entire region in their AFD

[MountainGeek]

33 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?  

I WOULD say bring it - we have plenty of space - but being in the BR, I can't guarantee that you'll be able to get out before Tues or maybe even Wed.  

In 2016 it took them 3 days to get to us with large bulldozers driving down the middle of the road. Dump trucks couldn't push it. 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm gathering this was posted already... but LWX says SLRs to start at 15:1 for the entire region in their AFD

930pm evening AFD update snippet

One thing to note regarding this evening`s guidance is that
there has been a northern and western push which favors wintry
mix across southern MD and central VA. The uncertainty remains
in how far north this mix line evolves given the track of system
whether it`s further to west or south of the region. The ECMWF,
ICON, GFS, GEM, GEFS, and EPS illustrate this in different
variations with a the highest probabilities of ice (i.e.,
sleet/some freezing rain) in the aformentioned areas above. Each
of these solutions do have a variation of sleet mixing with
snow and making it as far north as the I-95 corridor as the
system kicks out Sunday afternoon. The probability of 0.01" of
ice remains between 10 to 20 percent along I-66/US-50 and into
I-95 north and east of DC. These values jump up to 25 to 35
percent across southern MD and central VA where slightly warmer
air aloft/dry slotting may win out.

The probabilities for significant/impactful snow have not changed a
whole lot with the entire area seeing 65 to 85 percent probs of 6 to
8 inches snow. These probabilities drop down to 35 to 60 percent for
a foot of snow, especially in the climo favored zones along and
west of I-95 as well as down into northern Shenandoah
Valley/Allegheny Mountains. This signal has trended upward in
the last few runs, especially on the ECMWF/ECS as well as GEPS
compared to the GEFS which focus this axis a bit further south.
Of course these numbers will go up or down based upon any mixing
that may occur.

Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15:1 with this system for
the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 10:1
and perhaps slightly lower Sunday morning into the afternoon as
some mixing occurs. The pending dry slot could also play into
this as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly
within the initial warm advection conveyor belt. Expect some
crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that may occur as
the system kicks out during the second half of Sunday.

Now is the time for the public to make preparations for the
storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or
medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into
early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency
kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and
blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel your
car before the storm hits. Check on elederly friends/neighbors
and don`t forget about your pets during this prolonged cold
period.

[yoda]

Watches up from Wakefield 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075-509>513-515-517-519-521-
221500-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western
Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is
  increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may
  result in major impacts in infrastructure and transportation.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central,
  and north central Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. The combination of significant
  snow and ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause
  widespread and long-lasting power outages.

[Amped]

Just got an alert on my phone for a winter storm watch.

[scope1]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
216 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely lead to widespread significant
snow beginning late Saturday, with the potential for ice Sunday
especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95.
In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very
cold temperatures are expected Friday night through the middle of
next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053>057-527-222115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne
Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast
Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King
George-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas
Park-
216 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain possible.
  There is a high likelihood of at least 5 inches of snow, with over
  10 inches possible. Ice accumulation is also possible.

* WHERE...DC, and portions of central, northeast, northern, and
  southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday
  evening, becoming heavy at times late Saturday night with rates of
  one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or
  freezing rain is possible Sunday. Significant icing is possible
  especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or
  less is possible at times. A prolonged period wind chills in the
  teens and single digits is likely beginning Friday evening and
  lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills
  possible at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Now is
the time to make preparations for the storm. This includes getting
any necessary groceries or medicines that you may not be able to
access this weekend into early next week due to any potential
closure. Have an emergency kit in the car including extra batteries,
a flashlight, and blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure
to refuel or charge your car before the storm hits. Check on elderly
friends, family, and neighbors and don`t forget about pets or
livestock during this prolonged cold period.

&&

$$

DHOF/EST

[AU74]

[jayyy]

Point click is lovely

Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday
Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%.