January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Let's say 85% of that is snow at DCA... woof

Waiting for final but DC over a foot.

[clskinsfan]

First flakes out here around 6 on Saturday. Over the Blue Ridge by 7. 

[yoda]

Just now, bncho said:

After the mix, not including possible back end, mix line shifted SE about 5 miles

Before

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Sunrise Sunday looks amazing.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

After the mix, not including possible back end, mix line shifted SE about 5 miles

Love it

[Scraff]

Beautiful! Good night peeps. Just 2 more sleeps until 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO

[DCWeatherGuy]

So, to summarize the consensus emerging from 0z runs (as much as such a thing exists)...

Storm starts Saturday evening in the greater DC metro area. Front end thump looks powerful.  Will almost certainly mix during the day on Sunday.  May turn back to snow later on Sunday if the event goes long.  QPF numbers look encouraging, 1.3-1.5 inches a good bet for most of the region. Due to sleet loss, ~8 inches of snow seems like a reasonably safe bet for DC metro and points west and north, with 12 being very possible, especially as you go more west and north.  Could exceed those numbers if mixing is delayed or if the ratios are great due to cold temps at the outset. But also some remote bust scenarios exist (in terms of total snow accumulation) because the cutoff line is drawing closer and closer to DC/I-95. 

Fair? Any suggested revisions?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO

Definite improvement over 18z!!! Ha...funny how we're calling a foot of snow a "thump", lol

[Solution Man]

.40 freezing rain is power outages, don’t want that, central VA is a nightmare 

[benjammin]

Terrible for RIC, LYN, ROA, etc. And yes we are part of this forum.

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[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO

That's a lottttt of freezing rain. I'd wager at least half of that is sleet instead.

[balltermen]

[LeesburgWx]

This storm it’s going to be a beast all around. Wow. VA likely going to be under state of emergency soon 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

That's a lottttt of freezing rain. I'd wager at least half of that is sleet instead.

I hope so for Richmonds sake. Low 20 degree temps during that too. It is bad news as modeled for them. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO

If that freezing rain is even remotely correct people are really screwed in central and Southern VA. Dear lord. 

[Steckstacks]

Definite improvement over 18z!!! Ha...funny how we're calling a foot of snow a "thump", lol

Can we see a comparison to 18z @weatherwill?


.

[NVAwx]

Terrible for RIC, LYN, ROA, etc. And yes we are part of this forum.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

2” of ZR at RIC. Yikes.

[clskinsfan]

Last pic before bed. Pummeled!

[benjammin]

Are the mid levels that cooked to get that much freezing rain rather than sleet?

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[Jebman]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This storm it’s going to be a beast all around. Wow. VA likely going to be under state of emergency soon 

South Va and probably much of NC. So much damned ICE.

South central TX is also going to get some ZR and sleet, along with freezing weather. Sun night we might hit 10 degrees without the wind. This system is going to be one frigid slippery dangerous killer beast. I hope not but there are likely to be pileups all over the ice areas.

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I hope so for Richmonds sake. Low 20 degree temps during that too. It is bad news as modeled for them. 

Hopefully it'll be mostly sleet as the warm layer is pretty high up allowing for a  ~5k foot cold layer that maybe deep and cold enough to refreeze raindrops before they hit the surface. 

I saw this skiing at Mt. Tremblant where it was 15f at the summit with freezing rain while ~2000 ft below in the village it was a heavy sleet storm. 

[Berlin1926]

17 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Terrible for RIC, LYN, ROA, etc. And yes we are part of this forum.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Ive been wondering where Richmond goes.  It doesnt seem to fut into the SE group and this forum ignores it as well.  "Central VA" typically includes Richmond but you wouldn't know from maps that ignore it.  FWIW, the models have consistently transformed most North Carolina into a skating rink.  Now up to Richmond.  I do think northward trend of ZR has stopped.

[MillvilleWx]

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?  

This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet. 

[Ji]

Hecs

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet. 

Oh man, are they in for a treat! You are in an excellent spot too for this one. Any good places to stay around your parts by chance? I am really looking into a chase out in that direction. 

[Ji]

[MDsnowPRO]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow…..that’s beautiful 

 

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like one hell of a snow job to me, especially in northern Virginia.