January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Ji]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Is the ICON ingesting the recon data?

nobody knows that the icon is except for people on this forum....so no

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Does this ICON have the hallowed new data? Or is it just ECMWF and American models

No, GFS and Euro I believe

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

On a serious note, that's a good question since these are all global models.

I would have to imagine all the data are available to all models.

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He's part of our region.  I will not let them secede.  That didn't work out for them the last time.

Shit.. I’m kinda hurt by this.. I’ve literally been around since the Eastern US Weather days and have posted plenty of times in here, mainly in the winter months. People acting like I’m posting from Jackson Hole  I call it the dead zone down here because we are inbetween the mid Atlantic and southeast forum crews. 

[LVblizzard]

Something crazy I noticed is that the southern stream vortmax is near Midland/Odessa, TX at hour 84. At 78 hours at 18z, it was near Wichita, KS. Just a subtle 500 mile difference.

[wxmeddler]

NAM has later/bigger phase with stout 850 low over the Ozarks. We get crushed in the initial hit but would for sure lead to mixing.

[nj2va]

One thing on the NAM - from H81 to H84, DC gets ~0.35” QPF, all snow. 1”+/hour rates…would be fun, with more to come.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

nobody knows that the icon is except for people on this forum....so no

Nws has never even  heard of it.  

[snowfan]

[stormtracker]

ICON is def not NAM like with that baja s/w....bitch is moving and phasing

[LP08]

Yeah this icon run not looking great out west.  

[Silver Meteor]

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84?

Oh you Yankees, LOL. That Low is forming at Cape Lookout (Morehead City.) Wilmington is the next one down, Cape Fear. 

[stormtracker]

snowing at 78 on the ICON

[nj2va]

Looks like late Saturday night start on ICON.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Shit.. I’m kinda hurt by this.. I’ve literally been around since the Eastern US Weather days and have posted plenty of times in here, mainly in the winter months. People acting like I’m posting from Jackson Hole  I call it the dead zone down here because we are inbetween the mid Atlantic and southeast forum crews. 

Hurt?  I'm claiming you bud.  You are with us.  I'm saying we are keeping you here.

[LP08]

Just now, stormtracker said:

snowing at 78 on the ICON

Better thump than 18z 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

NAM has later/bigger phase with stout 850 low over the Ozarks. We get crushed in the initial hit but would for sure lead to mixing.

Only thing I don’t get is everyone loves the 18z NAM and 0z is colder/flatter and more seem to be upset with it. 

[stormtracker]

Sleet enters at 90 on the ICON

[Nomz]

I'd be fine locking in the ICON as it is now. Probably at least 10 inches before we transition.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Better thump than 18z 

Despite the atrocious look out west, the phase is a tad sloppier. That combined with the improved thump puts down 0.8" QPF in DC before sleet enters the picture.

[Warm Nose]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Only thing I don’t get is everyone loves the 18z NAM and 0z is colder/flatter and more seem to be upset with it. 

that's because they have no idea what that means. They can read the pictures but not understand the words.

[NorthArlington101]

ICON is 10” Kuchera. Take it and run folks

[LVblizzard]

ICON is better. Primary is more south with confluence pressing down a little harder. Still won’t produce this subforum’s desired result but at least it’s not another step in the wrong direction.

[nj2va]

NW DC barely hanging on 18z Sunday with sleet criss crossing the city. But by then 0.9” of QPF has fallen so an impressive thump, better than 18z.

[WEATHER53]

28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

1041 HP over NY is big help. We get hammered up front.

My beloved high pressure is a heavyweight this time 

[stormtracker]

It actually is a hold or just ever so slightly cooler than 18z

[Nomz]

Looks like a second wave of QPF coming behind our snow? Not really sure where thats coming but it really nails PA and NY.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

ICON is better. Primary is more south with confluence pressing down a little harder. Still won’t produce this subforum’s desired result but at least it’s not another step in the wrong direction.

Exactly. It seems the bleeding has stopped thus far at 0z.

[stormtracker]

Honestly seems like a slightly better run.  Not ideal..but staunches the bleeding

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Nomz said:

Looks like a second wave of QPF coming behind our snow? Not really sure where thats coming but it really nails PA and NY.

Probably a Philly north thing.