January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Small things, but yeah I notice them too.  Im just looking for anything at this point.  If I see a features 3 miles further west/east north or south, I'm coping and telling myself big changes are on the way

Butterfly effect 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Just got back from Wegman’s near what I think is your old stomping ground…looked like it had been robbed.

Feeling pretty good about this storm up this way, though I could see how Thurmont and north might do better than Frederick proper.

That is indeed my old stomping grounds. I think the valley will do well in this one. This is a good setup for you guys out by Rt15! 

[Nomz]

Is there a rule of thumb for QPF falling as frozen rain to accumulated ice? Does it vary wildly with surface temps?

[Ralph Wiggum]

These 'positive'(?) Changes on the NAM didnt make much positive difference on the euro. Are we hoping for the right piece to change?

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If you are feeling good we're going to get rocked. LFG. 

I’m getting hyped, but there’s a very high probability I will be checking back at 0z lol

[stormtracker]

sw out west is a bit further west so far vs 18z.  Probably won't mean much

[CAPE]

57 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Will forgo the analysis post for today, frankly these recent runs have got me rather confused and we got the legendary data ingestion for 0z Will probably aim for 12z runs tomorrow as when I make it. 

Legendary... more like urban myth?

[TSSN+]

Now this is just more than notice with the SW now it’s pretty significant difference 

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Now this is just more than notice with the SW now it’s pretty significant difference 

 

It is. But at this point, I honestly don't know what the hell we need/looking for

[Solution Man]

Just now, Nomz said:

We're really desperate right now, huh

Let it play out…patience 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It is. But at this point, I honest don't know what the hell we need/looking for

Same, issue is if the NS hangs north our confluence hangs north too. I think in general we want a deamped SW and a further east/weaker 2nd NS lobe (which enters the picture around hour 60). 

[clskinsfan]

50/50 looks better positioned than 18z. But I really dont know what I am looking for anymore. 

[Kay]

Just now, CAPE said:

Legendary... more like urban myth?

I remember many years in which it was debated, by smart people, here and on twitter. But now I see mets saying it all the time and turning up in lwx discussions so (idk, shrug?) 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now.

[pazzo83]

13 minutes ago, alexj7 said:

I was also in NYC and if I remember right, that was the storm (on some other forum) where a ~40 yr veteran but retired NWS person called bust early and was eaten alive.

yeah i'm pretty sure it was 2015 - I remember we were shaded in the 18-24"+ zone, basically the entire tri state was.  But then we got like 10" maybe in Manhattan, dry slotted like crazy.  Eastern LI and CT got hammered.

[Solution Man]

I think we’re gonna like it

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

50/50 looks better positioned than 18z. But I really dont know what I am looking for anymore. 

I was lost when things looked better.  Now I’m pissing my pants when the microwave turns on.  I got nothing but it’s still cold.  Hanging my hat on that. 

[bncho]

That Baja low is not budging...

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now.

I doubt it...it's going to come out..but there are some differences.  Like I said, I don't know if it means much tho

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

50/50 looks better positioned than 18z. But I really dont know what I am looking for anymore. 

Look at what you see now.  Then wait to see if the end result is better than before.   If it is, then what you saw is what you were looking for.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I doubt it...it's going to come out..but there are some differences.  Like I said, I don't know if it means much tho

Nam has features closer to 18z gfs up to this point 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Can't help but think back to Jan 25, 2000 and the papers that were written after that surprise. Models and mets together were focusing on the wrong sw feature all the way up til 36 hrs prior.  Maybe we are victims of something similar here. Not sure what surprise would be in store. Just thought it was funny we sitting here not sure what we are hoping for, same date 26 years later, same dilemma.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now.

So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia...

Here is the 0z NAM

Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. 

[stormtracker]

I don't think we got a firm clarification, but I believe the NAM doesn't have the recon data in it, just FYI

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia...

Here is the 0z NAM

Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. 

Actually pretty darn close lol 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don't think we got a firm clarification, but I believe the NAM doesn't have the recon data in it, just FYI

You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it.

[Ji]

Wtem 980 sportscaster Kevin Sheenan loves weather

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-kevin-sheehan-show/id1477400167?i=1000746084639

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia...

Here is the 0z NAM

Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. 

Dang nice pull there! Very similar. I concur with everyone as well thus far Baja low really hanging back to the southwest this run and I’m only at 35.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Actually pretty darn close lol 

Theres some irony there too. Once again, the really huge changes from our past runs (over a day ago) is the second NS lobe that pretty much materialized at 0z yesterday. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it.

Looks like TWC ingested the data as they are honking about 1-2 ft in our area. They gotta keep viewers