TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: Small things, but yeah I notice them too. Im just looking for anything at this point. If I see a features 3 miles further west/east north or south, I'm coping and telling myself big changes are on the way Butterfly effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: Just got back from Wegman’s near what I think is your old stomping ground…looked like it had been robbed. Feeling pretty good about this storm up this way, though I could see how Thurmont and north might do better than Frederick proper. That is indeed my old stomping grounds. I think the valley will do well in this one. This is a good setup for you guys out by Rt15! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Is there a rule of thumb for QPF falling as frozen rain to accumulated ice? Does it vary wildly with surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 These 'positive'(?) Changes on the NAM didnt make much positive difference on the euro. Are we hoping for the right piece to change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: If you are feeling good we're going to get rocked. LFG. I’m getting hyped, but there’s a very high probability I will be checking back at 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 sw out west is a bit further west so far vs 18z. Probably won't mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 57 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Will forgo the analysis post for today, frankly these recent runs have got me rather confused and we got the legendary data ingestion for 0z Will probably aim for 12z runs tomorrow as when I make it. Legendary... more like urban myth? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Now this is just more than notice with the SW now it’s pretty significant difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Now this is just more than notice with the SW now it’s pretty significant difference It is. But at this point, I honestly don't know what the hell we need/looking for 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Nomz said: We're really desperate right now, huh Let it play out…patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: It is. But at this point, I honest don't know what the hell we need/looking for Same, issue is if the NS hangs north our confluence hangs north too. I think in general we want a deamped SW and a further east/weaker 2nd NS lobe (which enters the picture around hour 60). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 50/50 looks better positioned than 18z. But I really dont know what I am looking for anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CAPE said: Legendary... more like urban myth? I remember many years in which it was debated, by smart people, here and on twitter. But now I see mets saying it all the time and turning up in lwx discussions so (idk, shrug?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, alexj7 said: I was also in NYC and if I remember right, that was the storm (on some other forum) where a ~40 yr veteran but retired NWS person called bust early and was eaten alive. yeah i'm pretty sure it was 2015 - I remember we were shaded in the 18-24"+ zone, basically the entire tri state was. But then we got like 10" maybe in Manhattan, dry slotted like crazy. Eastern LI and CT got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I think we’re gonna like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 50/50 looks better positioned than 18z. But I really dont know what I am looking for anymore. I was lost when things looked better. Now I’m pissing my pants when the microwave turns on. I got nothing but it’s still cold. Hanging my hat on that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That Baja low is not budging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now. I doubt it...it's going to come out..but there are some differences. Like I said, I don't know if it means much tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 50/50 looks better positioned than 18z. But I really dont know what I am looking for anymore. Look at what you see now. Then wait to see if the end result is better than before. If it is, then what you saw is what you were looking for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I doubt it...it's going to come out..but there are some differences. Like I said, I don't know if it means much tho Nam has features closer to 18z gfs up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can't help but think back to Jan 25, 2000 and the papers that were written after that surprise. Models and mets together were focusing on the wrong sw feature all the way up til 36 hrs prior. Maybe we are victims of something similar here. Not sure what surprise would be in store. Just thought it was funny we sitting here not sure what we are hoping for, same date 26 years later, same dilemma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch the models decide to bury the sw out in baja at 0z now. So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia... Here is the 0z NAM Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I don't think we got a firm clarification, but I believe the NAM doesn't have the recon data in it, just FYI 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia... Here is the 0z NAM Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. Actually pretty darn close lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: I don't think we got a firm clarification, but I believe the NAM doesn't have the recon data in it, just FYI You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Wtem 980 sportscaster Kevin Sheenan loves weather https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-kevin-sheehan-show/id1477400167?i=1000746084639 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia... Here is the 0z NAM Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. Dang nice pull there! Very similar. I concur with everyone as well thus far Baja low really hanging back to the southwest this run and I’m only at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Actually pretty darn close lol Theres some irony there too. Once again, the really huge changes from our past runs (over a day ago) is the second NS lobe that pretty much materialized at 0z yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You are correct. GFS and Euro will have it. Looks like TWC ingested the data as they are honking about 1-2 ft in our area. They gotta keep viewers 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts