January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Miller B 

Plenty of our storms are Miller B, including some rather epic ones(see Feb 2010). More of these type, or a hybrid of such, occur than a pure Miller A. Not sure why some think they are "bad". 

[Terpeast]

700mb temps - 0 line briefly touches DC on one panel then collapses south. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

This one getting away from us in a hurry, time to just mentally accept a big cold mixed bag and roll with it I think.  Gonna be fun either way. 

It’s still looking like any mixing isn’t happening until the very last minute.

[J.Mike]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

How much do we bribe for an Americanwx reference...specifically the full government name of one of the owners?  My friend wants to know.   Could be a few lucky for life lotto tickets in this for you/him.

Remember, you got $100 coming . . . for the Board

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Terpeast said:

700mb temps - 0 line briefly touches DC on one panel then collapses south. 

Yeah, the people are losing their minds over a very short lived bout of mixing.

[bncho]

It looks the exact same as 12z at hr 90.

[Imgoinhungry]

This one getting away from us in a hurry, time to just mentally accept a big cold mixed bag and roll with it I think.  Gonna be fun either way. 

Huh? Dc gets a solid thump of snow and it os heavy snow for 12 hours or so. A bit of sleet as the storm winds down.


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[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO 1 am Sunday, 4am, 10am, 4 pm, 7, 10

 

[Chris78]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO 10am Sunday

Can you post the other 3 hours maps for the storm lol

[WxUSAF]

More separation on 18z vs 12 euro. Icon gets tossed. 
 

Blend the whole euro suite until we get within like 36hrs and get 3k NAM profiles.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO 10am Sunday

This is after 12 hours of snow, 6-9 hours heavy. 

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Yeah, the people are losing their minds over a very short lived bout of mixing.

DC loses .6” of precip due to non snow precipitation

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

This one getting away from us in a hurry, time to just mentally accept a big cold mixed bag and roll with it I think.  Gonna be fun either way. 

You’re usually very levelheaded, unfortunately i think you have lost it. You need to at least wait until after 12Z tomorrow to jump ship. 

[MillvilleWx]

Somewhere between I-70 and the M/D will be the sleet line. And it won’t be prolonged for any particular area near it. I think if you’re south of I-70, I would expect some sleet, but not before a pretty damn good WAA thump. Places that stay all snow will have a shot at 15-20” with this one. 

[batmanbrad]

this is as of 10PM Sunday, pretty much confirms I95 as the approximate dividing line between all/nearly all snow and mixing/changeover to ice:

[bncho]

18z Euro is the exact same other than the fact that the snow thump had slightly less purchase and the mix line moved about 3 miles NW (that's not even an exaggeration). Hold in my book.

[300 square feet]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

This one getting away from us in a hurry, time to just mentally accept a big cold mixed bag and roll with it I think.  Gonna be fun either way. 

100%. 4-8” snow, then ice, then dry slot. 

[mattskiva]

WB 18Z EURO

1.88 along the Allegheny Front - with usual ratios and very cold temps that's gotta be 3ft in Garrett and Tucker


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[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO totals

[CAPE]

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

[batmanbrad]

and this helps confirm  MillvilleWx's thoughts on the 15-20" potential for the north and west areas that avoid most if not all of the mixing:

 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO totals

Living in Western Loudoun has its perks. But any more movement NW, it get iffy. Still a beat down though. Blend euro and GFS and most are happy 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

I guess you aren’t interested in the new data ingestion at 0Z. 

[mattskiva]

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

Depends on your point of view of what's the wrong way - it's a great run for NoVA west of the fall line, and for the mountains.


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[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Living in Western Loudoun has its perks. But any more movement NW, it get iffy. Still a beat down though. Blend euro and GFS and most are happy 

Yeah west Loudoun stays all snow this run verbatim. I flip for a bit, but not before 14” (again, verbatim)

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO totals

Looks like the most logical model output based on our climo. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

1.88 along the Allegheny Front - with usual ratios and very cold temps that's gotta be 3ft in Garrett and Tucker


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Its a 2 footer for most of the favored areas. Although I would expect some mixing even out here and into Western MD.

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

One more jump and I-95 is looking at significantly reduced snow totals. This probably ends up being 5 inches and then sleet and ice. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I guess you aren’t interested in the new data ingestion at 0Z. 

What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?