“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Snowcrazed71]

29 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah Euro cooled a bit but no change in QPF. We take.

Would you take more stock in what the euro is showing as far as the sleep line staying closer to the shoreline, are you still considering the NAMM as a heavy contender bringing the sleet up into the middle of the state?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The kuchera maps will be correct somewhere, but not because they are uniquely skilled…it will just happen to guess the ratio correctly wherever good snow growth overlaps with the deep layer cold the longest. Outside of that zone it will probably wildly overestimate.  

You know ... I was just thinking about this last hour - it's like the modeled storm is moving toward the impossibility of that dopa jerk product.  Converging on it such that it makes it right for the wrong reason this time?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I owe you an apology for earlier, didn't know the deep logistics of why the Kuchie blew in situations like this

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Lol just save a Kooch and compare. Its a tool that can be very helpful but not used for verbatim snow maps I posted them for shits and giggles. The elites don't like it. I also post Bufkit and 10 to 1. Keep this in mind the Mets here are conservative. Always under in big ones 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ... I was just thinking about this last hour - it's like the storm is moving toward the impossible depths of that piece of shit dopa jerk product.  Converging on it such that it makes it right for the wrong reason this time?

Jan 22 nailed.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol just save a Kooch and compare. Its a tool that can be very helpful but not used for verbatim snow maps I posted them for shits and giggles. The elites don't like it. I also post Bufkit and 10 to 1. Keep this in mind the Mets here are conservative. Always under in big ones 

I find clown maps in general to be very misleading. They are ok for kind of gauging the max zone or distribution of snowfall but even in those cases you have to be careful…esp when it’s very very cold like this storm. It tries to spit out like 20+ to 1 ratios way up north where arctic sand might be falling.

They are kind of fun to look at, but be aware of your audience, lol. Those of us who are on here all the time and look at them all the time know their shortcomings, but many irregular posters who jump on during larger events might not. 
 

The ramping up of QPF in this system is a very good sign though for the higher amounts. A lot of times we see some decent haircuts as we get closer if it’s not a big coastal…but not this time. This one looks like the real deal. 

[VivaManchVegas]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's anger more Mets

I prefer to keep this type of nonsense in the north for winter recreation, but I will take one on the chin this time for all the winter freaks.  Just went out to fill the empty gas can for the snow blower.  Its madness.  Had to go to three stations to find an acceptable wait.  One had not gas. Not sure if it was a technical issue or they were out. All gas handles were covered. 

[moneypitmike]

His much is the AI giving Munich?

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The kuchera maps will be correct somewhere, but not because they are uniquely skilled…it will just happen to guess the ratio correctly wherever good snow growth overlaps with the deep layer cold the longest. Outside of that zone it will probably wildly overestimate.  

Time to make Canada our 51st state

[bristolri_wx]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Better than posting long inaccurate NWS AFD’s

Yes we need the free liberated maps rather than the governed ones!

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Time to make Canada our 51st state

Imagine how sharp the trend in National average temperature would drop. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Yes we need the free liberated maps rather than the governed ones!

Looks like you snuck a government map in there on the left side, middle row. We also lost most of eastern MA on the middle map. ORH hills gonna get crushed with onshore flow. 

[MuddyWx]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yes we need the free liberated maps rather than the governed ones!

Rhode Connectichusetts bottom left

[CT Rain]

17 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Would you take more stock in what the euro is showing as far as the sleep line staying closer to the shoreline, are you still considering the NAMM as a heavy contender bringing the sleet up into the middle of the state?

50/50 NAM/Euro blend probably makes sense right now.

[bristolri_wx]

Our AI overlords are not good at weathermaps but very good at weenies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The kuchera maps will be correct somewhere, but not because they are uniquely skilled…it will just happen to guess the ratio correctly wherever good snow growth overlaps with the deep layer cold the longest. Outside of that zone it will probably wildly overestimate.  

Yea, max band...that is how I interpret them.....they convey the potential where lift and OMEGA are married optimally within the SGZ, but obviously that won't be realized ubiquitously. 

[TheMainer]

I'm not seeing 20:1 ratios here I don't believe, just give me my 6-8 inches and stop giving me hope!

 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

What’s the difference between fluffy and very fluffy? I’m almost afraid to ask.

30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

that blows gor tye msind crew.  Congratulations convord.

 

I see that beer took over your keyboard again.

[bristolri_wx]

That's a lot of clouds and moisture on their way...

[WeatherX]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Time to make Canada our 51st state

Ha, they pulled the plug on on sharing data as soon as the genius went full hundy on tariffs again. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, max band...that is how I interpret them.....they convey the potential where lift and OMEGA are married optimally within the SGZ, but obviously that won't be realized ubiquitously. 

I don't think that is true. The only method which factors in lift and omega is the cobb technique. What the Kuchera (and 10:1) do when it comes to max banding is highlight where the greatest QPF is forecast (by the model) and where that coincides with what the model believes will be all snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think that is true. The only method which factors in lift and omega is the cobb technique. What the Kuchera (and 10:1) do when it comes to max banding is highlight where the greatest QPF is forecast (by the model) and where that coincides with what the model believes will be all snow

Really? They are worse than I thought, then.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

This gives me intense wood...jives with EURO....visions of 1/7/24.

[mahk_webstah]

34 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Would you take more stock in what the euro is showing as far as the sleep line staying closer to the shoreline, are you still considering the NAMM as a heavy contender bringing the sleet up into the middle of the state?

I think a lot of us are going to be worried about the sleep line after this week of tracking

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I find clown maps in general to be very misleading. They are ok for kind of gauging the max zone or distribution of snowfall but even in those cases you have to be careful…esp when it’s very very cold like this storm. It tries to spit out like 20+ to 1 ratios way up north where arctic sand might be falling.

They are kind of fun to look at, but be aware of your audience, lol. Those of us who are on here all the time and look at them all the time know their shortcomings, but many irregular posters who jump on during larger events might not. 
 

The ramping up of QPF in this system is a very good sign though for the higher amounts. A lot of times we see some decent haircuts as we get closer if it’s not a big coastal…but not this time. This one looks like the real deal. 

I agree about the very slow ramping up of the QPF. That’s why I’m leaning higher from my area. 12 to 18 but I think they’ll be people in southern New Hampshire who get 20 or a little more it just won’t be widespread.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really? They are worse than I thought, then.

That's why I am not a fan of the snow maps, all they do is just take forecast QPF and multiply that by a snow ratio. There is no factoring in of lift, snow growth, RH of the DGZ and RH with respect to ice crystals in the DGZ. What separates the Kuchera from 10:1 (besides the obvious being 10:1 maps are constant) is it factors in the average temperature of the llvls to compute a snow ratio. 

The Kuchera method I also believe was designed to be a tool for snowfall depth. There are a few moduels on MetEd which go into some depth on these maps. When it comes to verifying Kuchera versus what occurred, the results were/are not particularly great. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This gives me intense wood...jives with EURO....visions of 1/7/24.

Ray what was that storm that rotated back from Nova Scotia gave you a foot. Bet you get smoked 

[Ginx snewx]

EPS 

[weatherwiz]

The Winter lecture my professor just posted for winter weather forecast actually has a slide on Kuchera method. One of the bullet points

Does not account for vertical velocity, depth of DGZ, saturation of DGZ, dry layers near surface, time of year, or stability 

Often overpredicts snowfall in in very cold airmasses and in marginal/mixing situations 

 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Civil wars beginning 

No it’s all good out fishing and it’s pretty nice out actually with the wood stove ripping in the shack lol

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS