“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[CT Rain]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

When will you guys raise totals?

Probably drop for southern 1/3 to 8-12 and keep 12-18 inland.

[JKEisMan]

Any indication of how models are doing based on what’s happening out west?

[CoastalWx]

Icon slightly north too

[codfishsnowman]

Some sleet will help keep the pack more solid and and less likely to blow around on the coast...no ones loosing whatever they get for awhile.

[Baroclinic Zone]

All caught up. Not much to add that already hasn’t been said ad nauseem. Early 12z runs look like an omega bomb incoming. We flirt with the sleet along the southern areas. I feel it will reach further inland down in CT where you are further away from the cold air drainage. Up here in SE MA, I think it’ll migrate inland about 10-15mi. Down along the cape you’ll do really well also before any transition to sleet. QPF has been bumping up as well this AM, so I think many areas will be seeing 15-20” with some localized higher totals wherever we see some banding setup or just inland from the cf intrusion.

[CoastalWx]

What’s with Reggie lately? EMC Canada not having their Tim Hortons yet?

[Prismshine Productions]

RRFS was amped

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[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon slightly north too

Lots of qpf 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Slop on the cop down there?

ICE deployed 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Still, a few days ago a total whiff was a possibility. Isnt 8-12 not good still? lets say bottom of end of that, 8". Still a good event considering congrats NC/VA with cirrus here. No way it doesnt snow several inches on the front end for many hours. 

We've lost what looked like a lock for 12"+ for days, and the signal for late next week is going too.  Obviously I'll still take whatever I can get, but this is a bitter pill.

[JKEisMan]

Just now, dendrite said:

ICE deployed 

Boo

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This feels like March '17 all over. Quick snow thump while we watch the sleet line race across the Sound and know our joy will soon crumble.

Nope 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

RRFS was amped

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Model sucks 

[Masswx]

The ICON is great here keeps mixing south. the Nam is the only model to show this so hopefully it trends towards the other models at 18x then all is good.

[ineedsnow]

ICON koochie

 

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 

Two aspects I don't have a problem with ... 

A,  giant QPF realization

B,  displacing transition zones to higher latitude, going from snow to dry IP falling thru low level aggregates like the latter are dodging being shattered by very proficiently froze bullets whizzing by them ... all under an exceptionally sloped winter sounding structure.  

A happens because this whole ordeals pulling up an unusually high PWAT source - benefiting winter enthusiasts, happenstance lobbing it over a near historically cold lower tropospheric slab of very fresh, nascent intrusion.  The former is usual transport set up... and so positive precipitation anomaly results.  Fine.

As for B,  I actually don't have a problem with that happening ... to some degree.  Let's not get crazy.  I know I'm in the minority in this dopa crazed din of objective rationality ( haha) but the reason this storm is happening is because warm air is going over cold air. 

So...longer winded sermon:  we're having an arctic intrusion in temporal coincidence with a time-lagged MJO phase 6 STJ attempting to assert itself into the OV/TV regions with it's highly correlated warm anomaly.  Two titanic signals clashing... storm results.  It's really quite elegantly coherent like that - for me anyway.  But these opposing forces are exceedingly polarized.  The cold is ridic.  The warm correlation is fighting back - so to speak.. It's going to go over top because it physically can't go anywhere else ( btw ...I'm just writing all this for the art and fun of it - am aware you know all this).  That means this whole situation is uniquely set up to maximize the slopes of these sounding.  I could see it setting a record for synoptic difference between 700 mb over White Plains NY say, while it is 12 F at the surface.  This might be similar to 1994, 10,000K sleet column, only just a tad colder.   All I'm saying is that there's conceptual plausibility to an IP carpet bombing.  

So, using the NAM as proxy, the 860 mb is closed, weakly so...albeit still closed; it aligns an axis W-E just south of the Pike on this 12z rendition, at warmest synoptic pass.  That is about 50 mi N of where the model placed that same axis 12z yesterday.   It seems to me, the IP line is moving in concert with that repositioning, more so than the model just arbitrarily warming it aloft.   We can kind of get a sense of that repositioning below

The IP line is falling probably from an elevated layer above this... because it is actually below 0C at this 850 mb rendering down to the beaches of the south shores.  The 700mb level, meanwhile, remains open...  not closing, but flat.  This latter circumstance is a bit idiosyncratic, and would limit the IP line penetration in latitude, given this NAM solution - its angle of ascent at that level is oriented more W-E.   It's like utterly locking the IP right where we see that black line.  If the flow between 850 and 700+ was more S... trust me, it would drive the IP line bodily N over this arctic air mass.  

Now ...this is the wholesale structure of the NAM.  The NAM could also redraw all this back to 12z yesterday's rendition, it would reposition the IP line back S.. and the variance in the total structure et al, like above?  it would almost be unnoticeable if not looking for it.  The NAM has a N-W bias over the eastern CONUS as an ongoing operational concern. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we are just seeing that express. Probably have to now-cast that 

 

[DomNH]

ICON is a monster hit.

[Ginx snewx]

I grew up on the coast. Practically every huge storm had taint. Huge totals before taint.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

ICON is actually freezing rain for the lower half of CT, RI and the South Coast at hour 39

[JKEisMan]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We've lost what looked like a lock for 12"+ for days, and the signal for late next week is going too.  Obviously I'll still take whatever I can get, but this is a bitter pill.

I think we‘ll see some surprises before tomorrow, hopefully positive. This is a huge storm and setup somewhat outside the norms, not sure the models have a full hold despite the SWFE flavor. We‘ll be in a nowcast mode soon enough.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

ICON is actually freezing rain for the lower half of CT, RI and the South Coast at hour 39

Looks like definite sleet to me on soundings. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Probably drop for southern 1/3 to 8-12 and keep 12-18 inland.

If things keep ramping you may need to do a 15-22 or something inland 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is that it struggles north of HFD to GHG or so. Just north of there to the pike perhaps it’s lift dependent where lighter echoes are sleet and snow mix due to various reasons. NoP is good. 

That’s probably about dead nuts on 

[dryslot]

Looks like most all the modeling so far has bumped a bit north so we are now getting into the 1 inch QPF range up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 

There’s 7” on the ground here .. if we can add 15-20” and then more on Thursday the pack will be best since 2015

[Prismshine Productions]

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others

Goofus- GFS
King/Dr.No- Euro
Skynet- EuroAI
Reggie- RGEM
ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer)
Uncle- UKMET
Nammer- NAM
(And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits")

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[SeanInWayland]

It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all.
 
The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). 
 
For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). 
 
Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting.

Thank you for this, I was always wondering what the Kuchera algo was, and what it was good for given the many comments.

Your synopsis begs the question, why is your preferred approach not available as an algorithmic output?


.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others

Goofus- GFS
King/Dr.No- Euro
Reggie- RGEM
ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer)
Uncle- UKMET
Nammer- NAM
(And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits")

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meep meep 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

NAM actually wasn't too bad with the sleet.

[Prismshine Productions]

meep meep 

Road Runner?... suitable

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