“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Slowly bumping up as tenth at a time, Getting close to 1.0" qpf, 0.87"

This will be Feb 69 for us by late next week

[dryslot]

This is going to be a great regional hit for many, Somethings that's been a miss for several years being this widespread.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This will be Feb 69 for us by late next week

Ha, That's possible, Could match the avatar, Even the 10:1's on the GFS are insane.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, That's possible, Could match the avatar.

I was being sarcastic about how slowly this storm is ticking for us. 

But yeah…some could be balls deep in 10 days.

[DomNH]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s a SWFE, I don’t understand why there’s been hype wrt 18”+ totals?

Sure, there might be some lollies on the coast, but for the interior folks it’s moving out too quickly to be anything historic.  
 

Should be pretty awesome and wintry for everybody so sit back and enjoy.

It’s the SLRs really. Our SWFEs are often arctic sand IIRC. Pretty unusual to run 1-1.5’’ of liquid through high SLRs region-wide. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I was being sarcastic about how slowly this storm is ticking for us. 

But yeah…some could be balls deep in 10 days.

lol, Yeah, The SWFE last 48 hr rule, But you have to really like the look going forward into Feb.

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

God, the hype is out of control.

Scott,  maybe but I watched ABC evening news.  This is going to be a catastrophic storm.  No one has ever seen anything like this!

[weatherwiz]

You couldn’t ask for a better setup for the region given the last several years. Everyone wins in this setup. There really isn’t a screw zone. It’s a region wide dumping 

[HoarfrostHubb]

For us it is a fairly ordinary storm.  For those about to get the ice, that will suck big time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This will be Feb 69 for us by late next week

I would take that month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This has been a 10” to 14” storm for days.

Well, your area never had any more upside than that, but some other spots do.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For us it is a fairly ordinary storm.  For those about to get the ice, that will suck big time. 

We all should’ve chipped into buy DIT a plane ticket to Greensboro NC. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Scott,  maybe but I watched ABC evening news.  This is going to be a catastrophic storm.  No one has ever seen anything like this!

I don't watch the news really so idk what they're saying, but this is probably going to be a legitimately high end to historic storm. Anyone getting .75-1" of ZR down in the south is going to have their grid collapse. 

[dryslot]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A worthwhile read

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Don, You are looking good at both locations for this one.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For us it is a fairly ordinary storm.  For those about to get the ice, that will suck big time. 

A fairly ordinary storm? Down here, 10-16” has been around our seasonal total for like 3 of the last six years. This is phenomenal!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, your area never had any more upside than that, but some other spots do.

 

I mean, anything over 10 inches here will be gravy.  Usually SWFE is 8”-10” max here.  
I’m guessing Greenfield will be 10” if it’s under that I might be disappointed but I’m fine with a decent warning event, no matter what happens.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't watch the news really so idk what they're saying, but this is probably going to be a legitimately high end to historic storm. Anyone getting .75-1" of ZR down in the south is going to have their grid collapse. 

I really feel bad for those folks, After living thru Icestorm 98 here and we are much more suitable to handle events, They're fukd

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Don, You are looking good at both locations for this one.

Feeling good. It's nice to just watch a storm unfold without worrying too much. It's about damn time. This is going to be a big one for many, not just in New England. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s a SWFE, I don’t understand why there’s been hype wrt 18”+ totals?

Sure, there might be some lollies on the coast, but for the interior folks it’s moving out too quickly to be anything historic.  
 

Should be pretty awesome and wintry for everybody so sit back and enjoy.

Well, it's about as extreme of a SWFE as you'll get given the airmass combined with the potential for a coastal finish in Monday.....this is akin to someone saying on March 11, 1993 "It's progressive, I don't know how we are getting 2-4'". I'm not comparing the events, but the point is that this is not a climo SWFE..hell, 12-16-07 dropped over a foot and the airmass wasn't quite this cold, nor was there any redevelopment aside from a triple-point.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I’m gonna be pissed if I don’t get 16”

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You couldn’t ask for a better setup for the region given the last several years. Everyone wins in this setup. There really isn’t a screw zone. It’s a region wide dumping 

Weirdly it's not as much fun to follow. You always like to see somebody get screwed.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, Yeah, The SWFE last 48 hr rule, But you have to really like the look going forward into Feb.

2011 2015 run incoming 

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Weirdly it's not as much fun to follow. You always like to see somebody get screwed.

da fuzz

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For us it is a fairly ordinary storm.  For those about to get the ice, that will suck big time. 

 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it's about as extreme of a SWFE as you'll get given the airmass combined with the potential for a coastal finish in Monday.....this is akin to someone saying on March 11, 1993 "It's progressive, I don't know how we are getting 2-4'". I'm, not comparing the events, but the point is that this is not a climo SWFE..hell, 12-16-07 dropped over a foot and the airmass wasn't quite this cold, nor was there any redevelopment aside from a triple-point.

Its not a SWFE

[Baroclinic Zone]

7pm afd

Quote

KEY MESSAGE 3...A winter storm looks to bring a substantial
accumulation of dry, powdery snowfall Sunday into Monday. Heavy
snow with 1"+ inch per hour snow rates Sunday early evening to
early Monday morning will make travel very difficult. Increasing
easterly winds could produce areas of blowing snow, and near-
blizzard conditions could develop in short intervals.

A large winter storm impacting the Southern Plains, Mid-South
and the Appalachians/Mid-Altc region tonight into Saturday
remains poised to affect Southern New England Sunday, continuing
into Monday before tapering off Monday evening. An anomalous
amount of deep moisture falling into an antecedent frigid,
Arctic airmass is likely to produce a substantial accumulation
of dry, powdery snow for much of Southern New England. With the
700 mb trough positioned to our northwest into Upstate NY
allowing for some intrusion of warmer air aloft from the mid-
Atlantic/waters, the potential exists for sleet to still mix in
along the immediate south coast and the Islands. Although that
could cut into accumulations for those locations, it`s
anticipated that warning-criteria snowfall should be met before
that transition potentially happens and won`t significantly
affect messaging. Weighing that, Winter Storm Warnings have now
been posted for all of Southern New England, segmented out in
such a way that Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket
which have the best shot at periods of sleet with lower (7-10")
accumulation, with all snow indicated for the large remainder of
Southern New England, with snow totals in the 12" to 17" range.
The potential exists for localized, isolated totals higher than
that could develop pending placement of heavier snowbands,
which is still uncertain at this day- 3 timeframe.

Overall no major changes on the synoptic scale with some subtle
wobbles in the storm track. Besides the still-credible potential for
sleet to mix in along the immediate south coast/the Islands, there
has been a few other changes to take note of. Period of heaviest
snowfall still looks to develop Sunday early evening through early
Monday morning, where the combination of strong frontogenetic
forcing and heaviest liquid-equivalent QPF produces bands of heavy
snow potentially with snow rates in the 1-2" per hour neighborhood.
Travel is likely to be very difficult to nigh-impossible during this
period of time. However as illustrated across several model outputs,
it now looks like a dryslot aloft sapping RH in the snow growth
layer races ENE across the southern roughly two-thirds of Southern
New England Monday morning - the implication being that snow
accumulations for Monday mid-morning to Monday afternoon could be
lighter. Models are also now showing stronger ENE wind gusts in the
25-30 to 35-40 mph range Sunday night to early Monday with the
strongest gusts over the Cape and Islands. That could open the door
for areas of blowing snow to develop and this was indicated in the
weather grids moreso along the immediate coastlines. Brief periods
of near-blizzard conditions could be possible if stronger gusts
materialize. The other uncertainty is the exact placement of
mesoscale snowbands; we probably won`t have a solid grasp on where
these localized bands may develop for another day or two, but one
area which could be favored is just west of a modeled intense
coastal front roughly along the I-495 to I-95 corridors. Further
adjustments to the snow forecast could be possible pending the
extent of sleet mixing in and the location/placement of heavier
snowbands.

Snow develops Sunday morning to early afternoon from SW to NE,
becoming steady into Sunday afternoon. In most areas, snow will be
falling with temperatures in the teens, which will favor a drier
snow. As mentioned, the period of heaviest snowfall and most
treacherous travel conditions looks to be from Sunday early evening
to early Monday morning, with snow rates in the 1 to 2 inch per hour
range possible. As sleet mixes in along the South Coast and the
dryslot moves in aloft into Monday morning, we should then see
lighter-accumulating snow for Monday/Monday afternoon before
tapering off into Monday evening.

Even though easterly winds are a little stronger, the risk for
coastal flooding is minimal as astro tides are low.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Its not a SWFE

The first portion is. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Weirdly it's not as much fun to follow. You always like to see somebody get screwed.

Empathetically, I don’t want Ray to get screwed in storms, but he does have some fantastically dark prose when his backyard gets reamed.

[Ginx snewx]

I smell death band. Sit back and smile.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it's about as extreme of a SWFE as you'll get given the airmass combined with the potential for a coastal finish in Monday.....this is akin to someone saying on March 11, 1993 "It's progressive, I don't know how we are getting 2-4'". I'm not comparing the events, but the point is that this is not a climo SWFE..hell, 12-16-07 dropped over a foot and the airmass wasn't quite this cold, nor was there any redevelopment aside from a triple-point.

Yeah, the biggest reason this is higher end despite being a SWFE is the airmass and amount of moisture involved. You try and rip that type of gulf moisture up over the top of an arctic airmass this cold, you're going to get fireworks....and it's also kind of an ideal angle with the broad trough...so the duration is decent for a SWFE....instead of like 6 hours and out, we're more like 10-12 hours before the upper midlevels start to dryslot. You can also throw in some local enhancers with this airmass like OES and a CF....the CF helped you in a system like 12/16/07 and it might help you again. So we could easily see widespread 10-16/12-18 from that. 

 

I think a lot of the 20"+ talk is overhyped at the moment, especially since Monday is looking less onshore flow if this ticks north....but there is still the chance someone could grab 20 if we trend that Monday position a bit further south and prolong onshore flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Look where the mid level low is before it tries to redvelop.