“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Gets rain (only a few hundreths) to Weymouth lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

It's fair to say you can't tell any trend with this one early on in a run, that looked colder for sure, then it torched.. I don't think you can toss it either, all you can do is watch model trends for thermals.

[NeonPeon]

Cancelled school in Newport already for Monday. 

Hope this one doesn't disappoint for anyone, even if it would make me missing it more palatable.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's fair to say you can't tell any trend with this one early on in a run, that looked colder for sure, then it torched.. I don't think you can toss it either, all you can do is watch model trends for thermals.

I'd rather it look colder early on.

[RDRY]

The NAM loves to punch warm air north on SWFEs, especially at this range.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'd rather it look colder early on.

I’m more disappointed that it looks worse with the coastal portion Monday.

Thats probably the difference between 12” and 18”

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

The NAM loves to punch warm air north on SWFEs, especially at this range.

It’s usually correct too which is a concern 

[dendrite]

3k was pretty amped too.

[kdxken]

Noting a hint of concern among members. 

 

 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The NAM loves to punch warm air north on SWFEs, especially at this range.

And it's normally right

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m trying to remember a storm like this where the NAM was too warm and north with  the nose 

[Damage In Tolland]

Latest RRFS is colder . Sleet gets to about NYC

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m more disappointed that it looks worse with the coastal portion Monday.

Thats probably the difference between 12” and 18”

You jinxed it with a map lol

[weathafella]

3k keeps cf pinned closer to the coast Sunday late night vs 12k more inland in SE MA.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's fair to say you can't tell any trend with this one early on in a run, that looked colder for sure, then it torched.. I don't think you can toss it either, all you can do is watch model trends for thermals.

Yep. 20-30” or a torch  

In all seriousness, we watch the trends. Whenever they develop. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The NAM loves to punch warm air north on SWFEs, especially at this range.

I think its wrong. Nam is usually too amped. We are also dealing with very cold temps.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

And it's normally right

Yup, Beware of the warm tongue more times then not.

[JKEisMan]

18z nam blip, will come back to its senses by 0z.

[SouthCoastMA]

Selling the low tucking towards NYC before sliding east toward ACK. 

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I think its wrong. Nam is usually too amped. We are also dealing with very cold temps.

I can't see plain rain anywhere except maybe the immediate coast, but a sleet-fest is definitely on the table.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think its wrong. Nam is usually too amped. We are also dealing with very cold temps.

It could be 3 degrees with sleet with warmth aloft . Surface nothing to do with it. It’s probably not correct this run, but it’s something to keep in back of mind 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yup, Beware of the warm tongue more times then not.

If the other 18z runs show a similar move, then maybe.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think its wrong. Nam is usually too amped. We are also dealing with very cold temps.

H7 don’t care

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Latest RRFS is colder . Sleet gets to about NYC

Sleet doesn't get as far north as the Nam in SE NE.  Also, more amped than 12z.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

H7 don’t care

To go from the teens to freezing within a few hours? I doubt it. Nam is off its rocker.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If the other 18z runs show a similar move, then maybe.

It’s not the only model that has warmer air ticking north though, Just something to watch, Primary has been ticking further north on some of these runs.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

To go from the teens to freezing within a few hours? I doubt it. Nam is off its rocker.

How many times have I heard this from you

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

To go from the teens to freezing within a few hours? I doubt it. Nam is off its rocker.

I’d definitely be concerned in NYC

[40/70 Benchmark]

18z NAM looks great!!

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d definitely be concerned in NYC

To go from suppressed to this is disgusting.