“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe N trend has stabilized.

Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF 

[tamarack]

26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Im thinking 5-8 for my hood at this point in time.  Lighter qpf and lower ratio snow.

High ratios would give us 10-12".  Cold sand, high-end advisory.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF 

mm, I see that as increasing the depth of the DGZ while also suppressing it S... 

by small measures in each facet - I'm not talking about a wholesale correction here.  But it's heavier snow resulting along a narrower axis somewhat S of ..whatever it was before. 

but we're just musing theoretic here based on the one model run

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looks great here 

[wxsniss]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the kind of trend that's been fatal the past several years BC the airmass has always sucked. Different ballgame now IMHO. We have margin for error.

Agree, exactly why in the cold vs. qpf debate about what's more important for a snowy winter, I always go with cold, even if it risks cold dry runs.

The historic ones are often preceded by an anomalous cold dome...

2-14F, –2-27 Jan 21,22, 2005

3-19F Jan 6, 1996

[dendrite]

Still not a big difference sensibly. Of course all models are pretty much SW flow right down to H7 for the entirety so I’m not sure how much a little difference at H5 will make. 

[OrangeCTWX]

GFS seems all on its own with the southern/cooler solution but man that would be awesome for SNE verbatim.

[ariof]

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

GFS seems all on its own with the southern/cooler solution but man that would be awesome for SNE verbatim.

Less awesome than pretty much every other model.

[SouthCoastMA]

Wish the GFS had a clue. Id rather not the low ride up over ACK, though many would love that. 

[EastonSN+]

GFS is a hold.

[weatherwiz]

That would be a huge hit on the GFS, especially with the 850 low developing just south of the region. I like how the sfc low and 850 low go virtually west-to-east to our south with a bit of elongation to the low...that should help (I would think) result in a much wider than usual fronto band (combined with other factors of course) than usual. This inflow oof

[weathafella]

My call for MBY is 11-16.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

My call for MBY is 11-16.

Prob a pretty decent call right now based on most guidance. You can almost broadbrush 10-16 across SNE. Maybe go slightly more conservative on the islands. There also might be a stripe of slightly higher amounts if there’s good OES enhancement and CF enhancement in a few spots, but I wouldn’t want to forecast explicitly over 16” for any one spot. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That would be a huge hit on the GFS, especially with the 850 low developing just south of the region. I like how the sfc low and 850 low go virtually west-to-east to our south with a bit of elongation to the low...that should help (I would think) result in a much wider than usual fronto band (combined with other factors of course) than usual. This inflow oof

Crusher…

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still not a big difference sensibly. Of course all models are pretty much SW flow right down to H7 for the entirety so I’m not sure how much a little difference at H5 will make. 

There's definitely something more than mere hints at this converting to a coastal ... kind of a race as the whole of it is alleviating the isentropic wall.

when that starts to attenuate, there's still a bit of uncertainty ( in my mind) as to the coherence of a actual low with CCB genesis... I'm sure you're aware of this and weren't intending to go into the granularity of those ending innings of this system, but even this ICON, which appeared to be on whole moving faster, still manages to put a 4 to 6 hour CCB head into eastern regions.  

It's not clearly like that in all guidance, though they've all suggested so at one time or the other.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian also maybe a tad south from 00z.

[wxsniss]

Agree Jerry

I think 10-16" is a lock for most of SNE... but a few model runs flirting with better coastal development and capture... that would get us to 20" and more

13z Jan 22 NBM output...

 

[weatherwiz]

If we're going to be looking at something along the line of 15-20-24" somewhere that idea won't become more serious until we're inside of 24-36 hours and can start diagnosing banding more accurately and getting a solidified feel on snowfall ratios, lift, etc. 

This is why that map of 1-2' was absolutely stupid this far out. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we're going to be looking at something along the line of 15-20-24" somewhere that idea won't become more serious until we're inside of 24-36 hours and can start diagnosing banding more accurately and getting a solidified feel on snowfall ratios, lift, etc. 

This is why that map of 1-2' was absolutely stupid this far out. 

I felt it was a bit lazy.  CoastawxJr's map had more thought that went into it between giving kids swirlies

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I felt it was a bit lazy.  CoastawxJr's map had more thought that went into it between giving kids swirlies

Nothing good comes out of doing that. You can raise awareness and prepare the public without having to go off the walls

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any similarities to 1/29/2022?

[Spaizzo]

If we're going to be looking at something along the line of 15-20-24" somewhere that idea won't become more serious until we're inside of 24-36 hours and can start diagnosing banding more accurately and getting a solidified feel on snowfall ratios, lift, etc. 
This is why that map of 1-2' was absolutely stupid this far out. 

While I agree kind of what we saw with Nemo is people still didn’t take it seriously and then complained when they were stuck. Not exactly the same storm, but implications. Also no matter what is done people still will complain or say weather people have it right so why believe them. Damned if you do or don’t


.

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's definitely something more than mere hints at this converting to a coastal ... kind of a race as the whole of it is alleviating the isentropic wall.

when that starts to attenuate, there's still a bit of uncertainty ( in my mind) as to the coherence of a actual low with CCB genesis... I'm sure you're aware of this and weren't intending to go into the granularity of those ending innings of this system, but even this ICON, which appeared to be on whole moving faster, still manages to put a 4 to 6 hour CCB head into eastern regions.  

It's not clearly like that in all guidance, though they've all suggested so at one time or the other.

Agree, one of the more suspenseful remaining aspects of this imo if we're looking for the more "exotic" "nirvana" solutions of SWFE + CCB to get us to 20" and over

I think ICON has had some of the better depictions of this, by virtue of faster infusion of energy and tilting of the trough

[Spaizzo]

While I agree kind of what we saw with Nemo is people still didn’t take it seriously and then complained when they were stuck. Not exactly the same storm, but implications. Also no matter what is done people still will complain or say weather people have it right so why believe them. Damned if you do or don’t


.

Sorry for referring it to a name lol I can’t remember dates


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[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian also maybe a tad south from 00z.

It is and does not get mixing as far north.

[ORH_wxman]

I think you’ll need to tack on 6”+ after the initial overrunning thump to get 20” amounts. That’s possible but it requires some form of a CCB even if it’s mostly lower level…all that onshore flow from 850 and below. Guidance disagrees on the extent of that type of setup early Monday. 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's definitely something more than mere hints at this converting to a coastal ... kind of a race as the whole of it is alleviating the isentropic wall.

when that starts to attenuate, there's still a bit of uncertainty ( in my mind) as to the coherence of a actual low with CCB genesis... I'm sure you're aware of this and weren't intending to go into the granularity of those ending innings of this system, but even this ICON, which appeared to be on whole moving faster, still manages to put a 4 to 6 hour CCB head into eastern regions.  

It's not clearly like that in all guidance, though they've all suggested so at one time or the other.

The H7 flow tries to back a little toward the end, but it seems like there isn’t a lot there right now to create anything more than a brief 850 and lower spin up. The trough axis is still over MI midday Monday. That sorta keeps some mid level fluffies continuing through the day until the upper system passes, but it all seems too disjointed to me right now for any kind of deeper system potentially developing (although some runs did try to go crazy once in the GOM). But even something more shallow could try to get the conveyors going and enhance the rates in parts of SNE.

But I agree…we’ve seen big changes at this time out before.

[EastonSN+]

GFS AI gets the 540 line pretty far inland.

 

[EastonSN+]

[dryslot]

Unless there's more changes, A 20"+ ceiling is going to be tough to achieve i think.