1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

[NoDoppler4TonySandz]

....meaning, I feel for those posters down in TN and S. Kentucky.....wagons north... buckle up Buckeyes

[Powerball]

4 minutes ago, NoDoppler4TonySandz said:

We have all seen this over the years.... holding on to the hope of the GFS finally being right, in spite of what every thing else says....

 

 

I want the GFS to be totally wrong, to be clear. It just needs to happen now.

#TeamUkie #PrayingForColdRain

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

GEM is northwest with a nice hit for most.

[sbnwx85]

8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GEM is northwest with a nice hit for most.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

Sure, lock it in. 

[RobertSul]

If we end up getting into the thick of things, that’s going to be a cold snowstorm for us in lower Michigan. Temps in the lower teens.

[Stevo6899]

Just now, RobertSul said:

If we end up getting into the thick of things, that’s going to be a cold snowstorm for us in lower Michigan. Temps in the lower teens.

Yea I was gonna say this might be the one time where even the kuchera maps may be under totals with ratios.

[Cary67]

11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Sure, lock it in. 

GEM looks good for downstate, central Indiana, Ohio folks possibly DTW. 

[hawkeye_wx]

UK backed off a bit, but it's still north.

[WestMichigan]

GFS goes nuts on West Virginia.  Bullseye of over 50".  No way that happens.

[nvck]

1 minute ago, WestMichigan said:

GFS goes nuts on West Virginia.  Bullseye of over 50".  No way that happens.

Orographic lifting over there could do some crazy things ....

[OHweather]

27 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Sure, lock it in. 

I guess that's not the worst model run I've seen for MBY

[OHweather]

UKMET remains on board

[buckeye]

GFS does it all over one week later.... except more of an app runner look

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, OHweather said:

UKMET remains on board

I've never seen a snowstorm that buried Chicago-Detroit-DC.   If Chicago picks up 9" from this,  DC would probably be slop to rain

[ILSNOW]

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

GFS does it all over one week later.... except more of an app runner look

To buckeyes point

[OHweather]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I've never seen a snowstorm that buried Chicago-Detroit-DC.   If Chicago picks up 9" from this,  DC would probably be slop to rain

The airmass in front of this is quality and there will be quite a bit of CAD east of the Apps, so I think DC sees a cold/wintry storm even if Chicago cashes in, but ice/sleet are in play for them for sure. 

[WestMichigan]

47 minutes ago, nvck said:

Orographic lifting over there could do some crazy things ....

I know.  I grew up in SE Ohio and watched Cheat Mountain, Snowshoe, Spruce Knob, the Maryland panhandle, all of those places get some crazy totals, but this is almost too over the top even for WV.

[sbnwx85]

European just now starting its 12z run. A little delayed.

[Malacka11]

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

European just now starting its 12z run. A little delayed.

Oh I thought we just server request spammed pivotal into shitting itself 

[A-L-E-K]

ready 2 be buried

[Chicago Storm]

Odds are this still misses this area to the S/SE, given all that needs to come together alignment/phase wise to get it NW.

[DocATL]

Odds are this still misses this area to the S/SE, given all that needs to come together alignment/phase wise to get it NW.

Chicago folks can see ourselves out. Good luck Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio valley.


.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, DocATL said:

Chicago folks can see ourselves out. Good luck Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio valley.


.

Didn't the bears teach you anything? The clock is still ticking (although I am not expecting much). 

[ILSNOW]

As soon as Doc mentioned that the Chicago folks can leave the Euro stopped

[OHweather]

27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ready 2 be buried

Worth noting that for reasons that are unclear to me, the NBM does not ingest all of the 0z Euro/EPS QPF until the 19z run (with the 12z hitting at 7z). 
 

Overall I have mixed feelings on the 12z runs. Trends to lift the PV out a bit quicker and for the northern stream diving into the Rockies to be more amped continued, but there was also a subtle trend to eject the Baja cutoff slower and/or not as cleanly, which would hurt the potential for an earlier/more aggressive phase. 

[Cary67]

[Chicago916]

6 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Worth noting that for reasons that are unclear to me, the NBM does not ingest all of the 0z Euro/EPS QPF until the 19z run (with the 12z hitting at 7z). 
 

Overall I have mixed feelings on the 12z runs. Trends to lift the PV out a bit quicker and for the northern stream diving into the Rockies to be more amped continued, but there was also a subtle trend to eject the Baja cutoff slower and/or not as cleanly, which would hurt the potential for an earlier/more aggressive phase. 

Sounds like the Baja Low will be sampled for tonight's 0z runs, so we should have that answer then.

[mimillman]

Absolutely legendary winter for the eastern lakes. They can’t do anything wrong 

[OHweather]

4 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Sounds like the Baja Low will be sampled for tonight's 0z runs, so we should have that answer then.

Yeah I agree those runs will be telling. All the other 12z models generally trended a bit slower with ejecting the Baja low too, but outside of the Euro which definitely bumped SE it wasn’t enough to overcome other trends that supported a more NW track on the other models. So there’s clearly a fair amount of sensitivity to relatively small changes with how that ejects out and phases.