psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Snowguy66 said: Long duration events never usually work out for us This is absolutely false and useless comment. We’ve had many and they’ve been great. At least on the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours. Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind. almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. GGEM (CMC) Common biases Over-deepens coastal lows Track often too far north or west QPF inflation → snow maps run hot Can be noisy run-to-run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. I feel like the CMC has been doing better than the GFS this year. It's purely anecdotal but I don't trust the GFS at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Long duration events never usually work out for us Really? I havent found that. All of our great blizzards come to mind. Most recently 2016 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong! Shocking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model It's actually one of the best global models in the world. The only clearly superior model in terms of verification is the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago gfs and icon almost identical cmc out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Can tell already Ukie will be colder than the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years. And it over amplifies a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model It’s usually #2 and sometimes #3 in verification. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Through 18z Sat the UK is a little flatter than 12z. Still amped but a tick less. I'd prefer small run-to-run changes anyway, especially if they are in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, SnoSki14 said: And it over amplifies a lot It can, but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago @donsutherland1 Do you know which models got the recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. Bernie Rayno shared the Euro soundings tonight on his video feed. There’s briefly a narrow warm tounge around 700mb in NYC. It gets to maybe +1C for 6 hours late Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UKIE basically all snow for this whole subforum with inconsequential light mix at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It can, but not always. Historically this would be the time frame that it would over amp, however, given the trends, I would think this is within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow Yeah, all this pure snow we've been getting the past 3 or 4 winters is getting boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 hours ago, BoulderWX said: Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 6 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: fold to euro ai, plus 30% more qpf and higher ratios than 10:1 say 14:1 to 16:1 and you have the exact solution for your backyard! read more and post less. i said the GFS was going to fold to euro ai and it did. honestly you post nothing of value besides try to dig knowledgeable posters. you should banter your jokes 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Still going at Monday PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ends after here (monday 5-6 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The UKIE is ICON-esque! Maybe a tick warmer than the ICON but better than 12z IMO. Threatens a mix/dryslot or at least lull, but redevelops on Monday! Sweet run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UMET 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nothing like a sleet storm with 45 mph winds. LFGGGG Then you would have loved the blizzard this week in 1978: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780120.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 56 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 00Z QPF - NYC ICON: 1.5 GFS: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet) UKMET: 1.2 (90% snow) Updated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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