Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

[Mo Snow]

lol is GFS really going to win out?

[Stormlover74]

Euro looks awesome

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Mo Snow]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

 

so ~7PM turnover to sleet?

[SACRUS]

Euoro total QPF




Total snow (10:1)

[SACRUS]

00z euro ai aifs

Total QPF



Total Snow (10:1)

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro looks awesome

Early-mid afternoon big time fun, flip to sleet by 7pm-ish but by then the vast majority already fell. Euro got wetter too, went from about 0.9" liquid last run to 1.2 now.

[Mo Snow]

Love the 0z trends tonight. Let's see how 12Z holds. 

How's the radar looking to what models were forecasting as far as snow/sleet line?

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 00Z

NYC

QPF / Snow (Frz)

SREF (mean):  1.3 /  9.7
NAM:   1.2 / 4.7
ICON: 1.4 / 8.1
RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5
GFS: 1/3 / 11.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / 9.8
GEFS:   1.5 / 10.3
UKMET: 0.9 / 7.4
GGEM: 1.3 / 9.1
Euro : 1.2 / 10.2
Euro AI AIFS: 1,2 / 11.0
 

Updayted

[OborSnow]

If we stay snow till 7pm I can not see LI not getting 10-12inches


.

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

HeRPS never gives up that primary, but stays plenty cold from the Raritan on north; combined with the Euro holding just now and I’m feeling confident in the MMU area. 

[SnoSki14]

Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess 

6z HRRR showing that crazy front end dump. Big improvement over 0z

[Snowlover11]

We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, Mo Snow said:

lol is GFS really going to win out?

It might. But do not misinterpret what the Euro and to a greater extent other models have shown. The thrill of this event will be the heavy snow. When the dynamics begin to lift to our north and east some warmer air at upper levels causes some mixing and possibly a brief changeover Sunday night. But by the time this happens almost all the most significant precipitation most likely has fallen. Therefore the greater snow amounts we are seeing on the GFS and the operational Euro. Euro AI is probably overdoing the influx of warmer air at the upper levels as I suspect is NAM.

WX/PT

[Noteaster101]

2 hours ago, OborSnow said:

If we stay snow till 7pm I can not see LI not getting 10-12inches


.

I don’t think that’s happening with all the models showing, you might be lucky to squeeze out 3 to 5 inches on the island before an icy mix comes your way

[Noteaster101]

19 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days.

I’m here in Rockland County in a very sweet spot, the mixing shouldn’t affect my area too much, believe me, I’m ready!!

[TriPol]

3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow. 

[SnoSki14]

6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models 

[Snowlover11]

6z NAM a tad bit colder for those directly on the edge. Noise at this point.

 

[TriPol]

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, TriPol said:

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

That's half an inch of sleet on LI which is nothing. 

[Volcanic Winter]

CNJ / middle third is a tough forecast I’m thinking, anywhere in the battleground / changeover stripe is gonna be a tough call. Depends further if we’re talking accumulating sleet or white rain, or even ice - not so sure that’s well resolved. 

Hoping the city gets blasted, but for here I’m really not sure. Mt Holly is still fairly aggressive even with their now reduced totals (7-13). Accuweather has near even odds between 8-12, 4-8, and even 2-4 which underscores what I’m talking about. 

Could bust high or bust low, tough one. 
 

Down to 10 with a -6 DP! I’d say the arctic air has arrived . Still falling. 

[dmillz25]

Down to 8 here

[MJO812]

Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster.   Cut down totals to single digits

[Snowlover11]

GFS definitely warmer, that mix line literally cuts the city.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster.   Cut down totals to single digits

I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon.

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I’m actually glad to see it. What’s the famous scene in Citizen Kane… his old sled, Rosebud… a child’s memory of playing in the snow….saw a 78 year old retired superintendent recently, I asked him how they made school decisions. He said when it comes to snow he is like a kid again. He’d go out at 4 am with grounds supervisor to see three schools; if the grounds guy said close the schools he did.

Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

That isn't ice accumulation. That's sleet that falls, so half an inch of sleet roughly which would be about 0.15 liquid.