Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[EastonSN+]

This is actually really fun watching the race between the warm tongue and heavy snowfall rates.

My bet is CPK starts to mix with sleet within 3 hours BUT gets another 4.5 inches before.

[mikem81]

Nice location for the coastal for now... Seems slightly east of modeling

[cleetussnow]

I got just about 6 ,maybe a tad under.  I grabbed my electric leaf blower and easily blew off my walkway and vehicles. Very fluffy dry snow and accumulating very quickly.  New GFS says between 16 and 17 total after tomorrow’s remnants.  We will see some sleet, compensated by ratios perhaps.  Good developments.  
 

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Goldberg on channel 7 said the mixing line may be delayed till 4pm now. 

yeah maybe in your parts according to hrrr but for me in central jersey starts to get in more like 2

[EastonSN+]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Nice location for the coastal for now... Seems slightly east of modeling

That would be huge. More importantly does it move more northeast or NNE that was modeled. Another factor.

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To monitor:

Speed of warm tongue.

Snowfall rates.

How much snow mixes with the sleet. You can accumulate at a 50/50 rate, albeit will be slow. Again March 2017 had 7.5 inches before Thundersleet. A couple hours later 9.5 inches!!

So accumulation may not just stop when the mix starts.

Sleet will accumulate too just at a slower rate. If we get 0.6” liquid as sleet that’s 1.8” since it’s a 3-1 ratio. And it will be dense and heavy as hell. 

[MJO812]

Heavy snow

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

I got just about 6 ,maybe a tad under.  I grabbed my electric leaf blower and easily blew off my walkway and vehicles. Very light snow and accumulating very quickly.  New GFS says between 16 and 17 total after tomorrow’s remnants.  We will see some sleet, compensated by ratios perhaps.  Good developments.  
 

GFS picking up on the warm tonge. Would be a foot for CPK with what has already fallen.

[psv88]

Nice storm. Heavy snow with low visibility. 
 

im going to count my snowfall as NAM+.

im ALREADY where the NAM had me haha

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet will accumulate too just at a slower rate. If we get 0.6” liquid as sleet that’s 1.8” since it’s a 3-1 ratio. And it will be dense and heavy as hell. 

Yeah the snow pack would last a long time with that density.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS picking up on the warm tonge. Would be a foot for CPK with what has already fallen.

Most of south jersey is 6+but I guess that's from 7am on?

[SACRUS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Sleet will accumulate too just at a slower rate. If we get 0.6” liquid as sleet that’s 1.8” since it’s a 3-1 ratio. And it will be dense and heavy as hell. 

There is also IP (PL) and SN mix at 5:1 or 7:1 pending on the mix which may occur in the borterline areas.

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

If the city can get to 4 PM all snow would be epic


.

That’s what Lee Goldberg is thinking now.  If it can snow till 4pm NYC will get 10-15 inches. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS picking up on the warm tonge. Would be a foot for CPK with what has already fallen.

That includes snow since 7am.

[nycsnow]

Ocean enhanced precip absolutely exploding south of long island 

[Prue11]

3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

That’s what Lee Goldberg is thinking now.  If it can snow till 4pm NYC will get 10-15 inches. 

Idk about 15 but 10-12 yeah. I’m thinking 10 for NYC

[eduggs]

I'm seeing 18"+ for parts of the mid-HV across to CT on the latest guidance... maybe down to Orange & Putnam... especially if measuring with a snowboard every 6 hours.

[DreamBig]

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I got just about 6 ,maybe a tad under.  I grabbed my electric leaf blower and easily blew off my walkway and vehicles. Very fluffy dry snow and accumulating very quickly.  New GFS says between 16 and 17 total after tomorrow’s remnants.  We will see some sleet, compensated by ratios perhaps.  Good developments.  
 

 

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS picking up on the warm tonge. Would be a foot for CPK with what has already fallen.

How are these so different, if both same gfs? Shouldn't Kuchera be higher also? 

[dmillz25]

5” and counting here 

[Prue11]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Ocean enhanced precip absolutely exploding south of long island 

Let’s hope that makes its way on shore

[mikem81]

Sleet line looks to he moving quickly again.

anyone able to confirm if flipped in philly already? We need to watch philly then trenton 195 area and see how quick warm air aloft is moving 

[SACRUS]

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I'm seeing 18"+ for parts of the mid-HV across to CT on the latest guidance... maybe down to Orange & Putnam... especially if measuring with a snowboard every 6 hours.

I wouldn’t be shocked if that creeped down into Northern Westchester. Between 5-6” already and the big boy rates haven’t even come yet 

[jm1220]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Sleet line looks to he moving quickly again.

anyone able to confirm if flipped in philly already? We need to watch philly then trenton 195 area and see how quick warm air aloft is moving 

Newest HRRR continues to have the sleet line fight back and forth as it gets to NYC around 21z. Sleet finally really takes over around dark. If that's true could be big, and NYC gets over a foot. 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Sleet line looks to he moving quickly again.

anyone able to confirm if flipped in philly already? We need to watch philly then trenton 195 area and see how quick warm air aloft is moving 

Quickly?? It’s barely into southern jersey. Wildwood is still snowing heavy! 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Sleet line looks to he moving quickly again.

anyone able to confirm if flipped in philly already? We need to watch philly then trenton 195 area and see how quick warm air aloft is moving 

There is a precip hole over south Jersey so the lighter rates probably allowed it to move in if I had to guess but I’m no pro

[Jt17]

The way things are looking we’re not even looking at that, I’m saying 3 to 5 in the city, less than that point south and east and even 30 miles west and north of New York City not that much more maybe 4 to 8 at best

How's this working out for ya?


.

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, DreamBig said:

 

How are these so different, if both same gfs? Shouldn't Kuchera be higher also? 

I have no idea…mine includes sleet?  Something is off.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Sleet line looks to he moving quickly again.

anyone able to confirm if flipped in philly already? We need to watch philly then trenton 195 area and see how quick warm air aloft is moving 

It usually moves in waves. Advances north, gets beaten back a bit, then surges north quicker and further north. 

[mikem81]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Quickly?? It’s barely into southern jersey. Wildwood is still snowing heavy! 

Maybe I’m looking at wrong map on COD but it seems to be advancing on the Philly radar using the sleet correlation mode