Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[eduggs]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Doesn't look like it's moving north all that fast over DE and hitting some resistance over DE Bay. I'm sure it's still coming but time to watch the radar and the CC line from here IMO. And heavy enough rates can overcome a very shallow warm layer a little above freezing which is probably what the HRRR is showing with the fighting back and forth. 

We saw heavy rates overcome a shallow layer in Little Rock yesterday morning. But that sounding didn't punch through with +3C like this afternoon's forecast sounding looks to.

[SACRUS]

 

21 years since the blizzard of 2005 14.1 inches at NYC.

 

This could be close at current rates.

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4.2 inches of new snow. An even inch in the last hour 6° and snow continues still haven't gotten under any of those 2 to 3 inch an hour bands yet.

[snywx]

4° w/ heavy snow

5" otg 

 

With these rates we are gonna have a foot by noon 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

4.2 inches of new snow. An even inch in the last hour 6° and snow continues still haven't gotten under any of those 2 to 3 inch an hour bands yet.

This is gonna be a big dog 

[mikem81]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=850mb&underlay=1&source=1#

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We saw heavy rates overcome a shallow layer in Little Rock yesterday morning. But that sounding didn't punch through with +3C like this afternoon's forecast sounding looks to.

New HRRR really has a fight with the sleet line as it comes into NYC around 3pm. Pushes it back south and soundings look right on the edge. Please be right lol. 

[mikem81]

Coastal forming...

[nycsnow]

LGA reported 2 inches in an hour between 8&9

[eduggs]

42 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Yea it may end up more correct than other models with regards to a flip to sleet but its godawful otherwise. 

I think the NAM has been great - just like with Dec. 26. Thank god we have the NAM model. Otherwise people would have been thinking for days that we were getting 18"+ (i.e., Apple Weather App). People think the Pivotal clown maps are the NAM model. They're not. The NAM forecasts QPF and temperature. How other people (pivotal, TT, even Bufkit) calculate snowfall based on that is separate from the model itself. This morning we've had a slight overperformance in terms of QPF and really good ratios. But the NAM has clearly been the best with the mix line.

[jbenedet]

Guys gotta pull out the classic cold Damming setups to see how this will play out.  The apps really enhance the push and depth of the cold; it will never get resolved by guidance.
 

At a minimum expect the surface freezing line to remain ~25 miles further south/east than progged. That’s your easy bet. 
 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We are focusing on north to south but west to east is very important. If u look at the models the warm tongue moves northeast not due north. Same down there.

Yeah and it always brings the sleet up to places like Mercer and Hunterdon while often remaining snow longer in Monmouth and closer to the coast

[weatherpruf]

really ripping over northern middlesex county right now; RU848789 must be in his glory; waiting for an update....

[Blizzardo]

Bloomfield is absolute rippage right now! 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

really ripping over northern middlesex county right now; RU848789 must be in his glory; waiting for an update....

Yeah bigger flakes and getting heavy. Hopefully 3 more hours of this

[mob1]

I can't believe how cold surface temps are still around the area. 

[eduggs]

24 minutes ago, wilton_wx said:

12z ICON a good hit for everyone...again, this doesn't carry that much weight, but nice to look at.

Looks amazing for Orange, Putnam, and Dutchess. Even has lingering wraparound into tomorrow.

[DegazRU]

Mix line has sagged south of Cape May and back to mid Delaware over the last hour. 

[ILoveWinter]

Such a delight to get heavy snow with such low temps, savor every moment of this! 

[eduggs]

The latest HRRR does sink the mix line down a little this afternoon! That could really help NNJ and northern Westchester pick up an extra inch or two this evening and flush the sleet vibe. It continues to look sick for Orange and Putnam on north!!

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Happy for you!  You've been waiting a long time for something this good!

[North and West]

This is gonna be a big dog 

.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, snywx said:

This is gonna be a big dog 

Central Park will most likely hit a foot.

[binbisso]

Just under 4" at 10am. Snowing moderately now should hit 10" here

[eduggs]

Already approaching the best event here since Feb 2021! If you are able and you haven't gotten outside yet, bundle up and do it!

[jbenedet]

That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region.

[nycsnow]

Heavy snow, heaviest should start coming through now. Mix line basically still crawling/stalled to the S/w

[nycsnow]

Just now, jbenedet said:

That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region.

Wow awesome post! Thank you. Hopefully it keeps hanging on

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region.

Not your typical SWFE that many were claiming 

[jysamuel]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Central Park will most likely hit a foot.

Where's the guy that bet the under