eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 58 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Doesn't look like it's moving north all that fast over DE and hitting some resistance over DE Bay. I'm sure it's still coming but time to watch the radar and the CC line from here IMO. And heavy enough rates can overcome a very shallow warm layer a little above freezing which is probably what the HRRR is showing with the fighting back and forth. We saw heavy rates overcome a shallow layer in Little Rock yesterday morning. But that sounding didn't punch through with +3C like this afternoon's forecast sounding looks to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 years since the blizzard of 2005 14.1 inches at NYC. This could be close at current rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4.2 inches of new snow. An even inch in the last hour 6° and snow continues still haven't gotten under any of those 2 to 3 inch an hour bands yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4° w/ heavy snow 5" otg With these rates we are gonna have a foot by noon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 4.2 inches of new snow. An even inch in the last hour 6° and snow continues still haven't gotten under any of those 2 to 3 inch an hour bands yet. This is gonna be a big dog 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=850mb&underlay=1&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: We saw heavy rates overcome a shallow layer in Little Rock yesterday morning. But that sounding didn't punch through with +3C like this afternoon's forecast sounding looks to. New HRRR really has a fight with the sleet line as it comes into NYC around 3pm. Pushes it back south and soundings look right on the edge. Please be right lol. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Coastal forming... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 LGA reported 2 inches in an hour between 8&9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 42 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yea it may end up more correct than other models with regards to a flip to sleet but its godawful otherwise. I think the NAM has been great - just like with Dec. 26. Thank god we have the NAM model. Otherwise people would have been thinking for days that we were getting 18"+ (i.e., Apple Weather App). People think the Pivotal clown maps are the NAM model. They're not. The NAM forecasts QPF and temperature. How other people (pivotal, TT, even Bufkit) calculate snowfall based on that is separate from the model itself. This morning we've had a slight overperformance in terms of QPF and really good ratios. But the NAM has clearly been the best with the mix line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Guys gotta pull out the classic cold Damming setups to see how this will play out. The apps really enhance the push and depth of the cold; it will never get resolved by guidance. At a minimum expect the surface freezing line to remain ~25 miles further south/east than progged. That’s your easy bet. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We are focusing on north to south but west to east is very important. If u look at the models the warm tongue moves northeast not due north. Same down there. Yeah and it always brings the sleet up to places like Mercer and Hunterdon while often remaining snow longer in Monmouth and closer to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 really ripping over northern middlesex county right now; RU848789 must be in his glory; waiting for an update.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Bloomfield is absolute rippage right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: really ripping over northern middlesex county right now; RU848789 must be in his glory; waiting for an update.... Yeah bigger flakes and getting heavy. Hopefully 3 more hours of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I can't believe how cold surface temps are still around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 24 minutes ago, wilton_wx said: 12z ICON a good hit for everyone...again, this doesn't carry that much weight, but nice to look at. Looks amazing for Orange, Putnam, and Dutchess. Even has lingering wraparound into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DegazRU Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Mix line has sagged south of Cape May and back to mid Delaware over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Such a delight to get heavy snow with such low temps, savor every moment of this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The latest HRRR does sink the mix line down a little this afternoon! That could really help NNJ and northern Westchester pick up an extra inch or two this evening and flush the sleet vibe. It continues to look sick for Orange and Putnam on north!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Happy for you! You've been waiting a long time for something this good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 This is gonna be a big dog . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, snywx said: This is gonna be a big dog Central Park will most likely hit a foot. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just under 4" at 10am. Snowing moderately now should hit 10" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Already approaching the best event here since Feb 2021! If you are able and you haven't gotten outside yet, bundle up and do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Heavy snow, heaviest should start coming through now. Mix line basically still crawling/stalled to the S/w 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jbenedet said: That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region. Wow awesome post! Thank you. Hopefully it keeps hanging on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region. Not your typical SWFE that many were claiming 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jysamuel Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Central Park will most likely hit a foot. Where's the guy that bet the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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