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Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

TriPol

By TriPol,
in New York City Metro

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MANDA
MANDA

Just got back from the store.  All set here.

forkyfork
forkyfork

it's been so long since we've had this

North and West
North and West

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Jt17

Jt17

Posted
Posted
It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro.

Yea I mean it just did 30 miles on 1 run. 30 miles more and it will look like everything else. Then the main differences just become if the intensity - if Reggie is right everybody will be happy.


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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
Edit: updated as I had the 2:24 am map up (thought it was pm D'oh!), although the new map still has most of CNJ in an 8-12" swath, so changing the warning to 6-10" for Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks seems unnecessary.  Just keep it at Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer and SEPA and at 8-12" and put the SNJ counties at 5-8" with Monmouth/Ocean.  
 
'm missing something, as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13-14:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1. And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better)would've been fine, IMO.  Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. I don't get it - and I think 6-10" for CNJ, for example, might be on the low side a little.  
 
StormTotalSnow.jpg
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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely.

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely.

NYC warning criteria is 6 inches I believe so even the NAM at its worst run was close to that but yea I agree. Also everyone’s putting a lot of stock into the NAM it’s on its own 

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
Just now, nycsnow said:

NYC warning criteria is 6 inches I believe so even the NAM at its worst run was close to that but yea I agree. Also everyone’s putting a lot of stock into the NAM it’s on its own 

It often is when there's a warm layer that the other models aren't capable of picking up. Doesn't mean the nam is right but I'll never discount it.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

Winter Storm Warning
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the warning criteria is met. The warning criteria for snow is 6 inches expected in a 12 hour period, or 8 inches expected in a 24 hour period. The warning criteria for ice is accumulations meeting or exceeding 1/2 inch.  A winter storm warning may also be issued for heavy snow combined with strong winds of 25-34 mph that will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. A warning may still be warranted if the event is expected to exceed advisory criteria, but fall just short of warning criteria and will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/wwa_definitions

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:
Color me confused, as the NWS-Philly updated the warnings including now having 6-10" for most of CNJ, but then just came out with the map below showing basically 9-11" for CNJ and it's still in the 8-12" color swath.  I'm missing something, as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13-14:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1. And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better)would've been fine, IMO.
 
Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. I don't get it - and I think 6-10" for CNJ, for example, might be on the low side a little.  
 
Image

Stop hugging ratios..most models are 6-10 with nam 4-6

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. 

WX/PT

This is not factual.

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winterwarlock

winterwarlock

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ratios will be high to start so I buy it.  

.

The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by
about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals
have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of
a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning
criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the
Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been
delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may
be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air
mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from
south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday
night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and
fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or
change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top
of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of
change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of
freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes
aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow,
sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the
region. There is an increasing concern that some are
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Bxstormwatcher360

Bxstormwatcher360

Posted
Posted

A 20 to 40 mile jog se is still possible. Things are trending better as the models finally pick up the cold suppression. All layers can warm up but against a solid cold dome,its gonna be tough going warming up any level ..925,700,850 for my location atleast doesn't reach 32f/0c.

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  • TriPol changed the title to Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

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