jdj5211 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I feel like the GFS is just torturing us. It's hard to unsee widespread 20" clown maps, which would make 7" of snow/sleet to dryslot while BGM and ALB snows for 30 hrs more annoying. Storm after storm this year the GFS has been an outlier until under 48 hours. If only we had any confidence in the model... but maybe it will do better this time around with more southern stream involvement.One thing it may be picking up on, which we’ll see in the 0z runs coming up, is an overall slower evolution of the system. It’s slowed down each of the past few runs. That slower system could ultimately cause the GFS solution to be correct. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 isn't this the same snowstorm that a week or so ago GFS had 70 inches for someone in northern Pennsylvania? someone could end up with 36 inches if we get a big storm like the GFS! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Need to see the other models move towards it before I bite Oh I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, Prue11 said: 15:1 may happen for a short time but I think 12:1 or 10:1 is more realistic They said start at 15:1 then go to 12:1 in heavier bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours. Yeah don’t like the look at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 John Marshall 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A changeover is inevitable here, but most of the forum should see a good dump anyways. Most solid setup I've seen in quite some years. Daytime snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it. We are going to see mostly snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours. Who gives a fuck what the 18z Ukie says. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Yeah don’t like the look at all Relax. If there's a mix as far north as Morristown, it'll be at the tail end. You won't see hours and hours of mixed precipitation. There'll be a minimum of at least 6". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18z Euro AI 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18z GEFS total mean QPF storm Total snow / sleet mean (10:1) Lean LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18z Euro AI AIFS total QPF storm Total Snow / Sleet (10:1) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ECM-AI looks great! At worst it's a hold but it looked a hair flatter and colder. It can't resolve warm layers so they'll be more sleet on the southern edge than shown, but I trust its synoptic representation more than the GFS. Clearly a lot more amped than the GFS but it suggests NYC can approach the higher end of the 6-12" as opposed to languishing towards the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 MA forum said EURO AI was a tick south and transfered sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nick Gregory from fox 5 had a general 9-12+ for the entire tri state. Central and South Jersey less due to more mixing. I like that call a lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 My early take is 18-24 inch potential across parts of e PA, n NJ and se NY, into n CT and central MA. Brief mixing issues south of that axis may intrude into parts of metro NYC near end of event, but even so, would expect 14-16" EWR, 10-13" NYC and JFK, 12-15" LGA and ISP. Can see how all of those could be a bit higher although getting NYC higher involves both (a) more snow and (b) somebody to measure more snow. Thinking I might start up a forum-wide storm snowfall contest for this one, would have an 18z Saturday closing time for entries. Look for it ... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: John Marshall Pretty much the same map nick Gregory posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 18Z Total QPF / Snow/Sleet (10:1) NAM (84H): 1.2 / (9.7) RGEM: 1.1 / (7.0) GFS: 1.4 / (13.5) GEFS: 1.5 / (12.8) Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / (12.1) Updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8-12” is a lock. If we mix, that’s where we end up, which is still a big time storm. If we don’t mix or mix later, 12”-24”+ is possible. Stop stressing. A large snowstorm is coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 18z Euro Total QPF storm NYC : 1,2 Total snow / sleet (10:1) 9.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro trending towards the GFS dying that primary out faster. Been the theme of the day. Couple more ticks like that an it's showtime!!! See y'all at 9pm for the nam 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I wouldn’t go higher than 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to I-80 right now because of uncertainty and models like the RGEM. It’s possible the GFS is right but it’s wiser to hedge toward how SWFEs usually are which is they try to amp and trend north unless there’s the brick confluence wall to stop them, and sneaky warm layers that try to move in quicker than expected. But the GFS is another possibility if we can catch a break with a further south transfer and decent coastal development, in which case those 12-18” amounts really can happen. North of the city especially I-84 corridor I think is a lock for 12”+. We’re lucky this is a SWFE setup where it’s running into a huge overrunning dome/high pressure which means even the amped models dump 6-8” before changing over and again-the sleet will definitely have its own impact and thicken up the snow pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NJwx85 said: I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 18z Euro Total QPF storm NYC : 1,2 Total snow / sleet (10:1) 9.2 What site did you get that map from? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Seems like the QPf is slowly increasing. Does anybody agree?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Agreed. I’m hoping we get 12+ out here. Seems like a 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Seems like the QPf is slowly increasing. Does anybody agree??Yes and gently trending towards a colder solution like GFS.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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