psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 i really think we have narrowed down close to a final solution. The only real loose ends are the development of the secondary low and its location to the coast. Thats the difference between 9 inches and 12" + for many, more so than mixing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Wow MT Holly 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Waiting for the 48 hour hrdps to give me 2" of snow followed by 5" of sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow MT Holly are they not seeing the sleet or they're counting the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just dug into the 12z Euro surface temps v 0z...temps from my area and most of long island came down about 1-2 degrees. PredictWind app is pretty cool for this. So the models are clearly picking up on the low level code. Other than the south fork, i dont see any plain rain. My area never gets above 30, and even the beaches of nassau and western suffolk never get above 32. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Strong coordination there between OKX and Mt. Holly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mt holly is being absurd....going to hug the NBM right off the cliff and then when its 6-12 in central jersey and 10-16 to the north will act like they got it right all along most prudent would be to start out lower with what the actual models are putting out and then talk about the possibility of higher amounts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 FWIW the Icon and GFS dont get above 25, and the Ukie also doesnt get above 30. Nice cold storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow MT Holly Is that snow + sleet since technically sleet counts for totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow MT Holly This will be a true test of forecasting skills versus just accepting what models spit out. There is definitely support for this projected outcome, just outside what we view as the consensus of the better models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, winterwarlock said: Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh Again that is through 7pm Sunday lol. More to come after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, winterwarlock said: Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh My Holly is storm total map, Upton is until 7 pm Sunday...apples and oranges 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh That is only through 7pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 are they not seeing the sleet or they're counting the south trend They like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Prue11 said: This may be become a nowcast event to determine if or where the mix line sets up it has to be said, every storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh Mount Holly's forecast goes out 12 more hours 7 AM Monday - Upton ends at 7 PM Sunday Main reason for the diff. They actually align. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs They said in their write-up that they were looking at the ensembles which were closer to benchmark. They think the transfer will happen sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We have consistency with QPF in the 1.00 or > range and even the warmest guidance has 6-9 inches of snow into nyc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs I think it’s a little high as well but if higher ratios work out it’s possible. In any case the north bumps seem to have stopped so that’s good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said: Ceiling on this is very high, there will be a large swath of 12"+ totals across the Northeast. For the City and coast itself however, there is a twofold concern related to the transfer from primary low to secondary: mid-level warming and arguably more consequentially the dry slotting. I would not be 100% on major totals at this point, but potential is there. First bonafide MECS in 5 years. lol i'll make it easy, if there is a dry slot it will be around northern middlesex co and southern union co in nj. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs Haven’t realized yet that they are smarter than 99% of us here and have more detailed data to look at plus a vast amount of experience? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 28 minutes ago, JonClaw said: Wow. Pretty aggressive along the south shore of LI back to EWR. Me personally I would have gone lower to start and then raise if needed tomorrow and/or Saturday. I just think you set yourself up for egg on face starting at the upper ranges. Just my 2 cents. They clearly know what they are doing. Any subtle shift north and those amounts will under perform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Haven’t realized yet that they are smarter than 99% of us here and have more detailed data to look at plus a vast amount of experience? feb 20 2025 was that the date of a pretty big failure...there have been several Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Waiting for the 48 hour hrdps to give me 2" of snow followed by 5" of sleet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Wow. Pretty aggressive along the south shore of LI back to EWR. Me personally I would have gone lower to start and then raise if needed tomorrow and/or Saturday. I just think you set yourself up for egg on face starting at the upper ranges. Just my 2 cents. They clearly know what they are doing. Any subtle shift north and those amounts will under perform. Yes, that seems aggressive to me. I wouldnt go above 10-11" for the beaches right now. Maybe when get more clarity on the secondary... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 any way to tell if this is light fluffy or heavy wet snow before the change over??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow MT Holly Same. Very aggressive. Especially SNJ. Again, they know what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 NWS likes to put the higher end potential then adjust down rather than the other way around. Still time for colder adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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