TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest blend. I think we got us a solid signal across guidance for a major winter storm lol Assume that’s 10:1 too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. Good thing about the 6Z GFS coming into line is that this lessens the risk from the southern stream/cutoff. It was consistently the slowest and most guidance has trended slower and stronger with it over time. Gives some confidence in it not getting stuck or coming out too piecemeal. We have other potential issues, like interaction with the trailing NS wave, but the big failure modes are getting crossed off first. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, TSSN+ said: Assume that’s 10:1 too? I don’t believe the NBM has a Kuchie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, TSSN+ said: Assume that’s 10:1 too? I would assume so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I would assume so. You have the qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Digital red = lots of digital blue Anyone know where to find this graphic on LWX’s page? It used to be under winter weather, but it’s not there anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: You have the qpf map? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Not everyday we see a high in the low 20s with snow likely. Sunday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, 300 square feet said: Anyone know where to find this graphic on LWX’s page? It used to be under winter weather, but it’s not there anymore Thanks to @NorthArlington101 for the link https://www.weather.gov/lwx/wintermaps Days 3-7 Threat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Thanks. Must have ratios cause gives me 9” on .6 qpf in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 See what happens if we have a good STJ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Thanks. Must have ratios cause gives me 9” on .6 qpf in Magnolia Delaware at 1.08 qpf in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: See what happens if we have a good STJ? Yeah, but we also need sampling of the players. Some of the posters from the old would say, wait till the players are on the field and sampling begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeesh hope that isn't ice down in central N.C that would be a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 First cup of Irish coffee successfully downed. Duh! Overnight runs were absolute art. Big shout out to those brave souls who sacrifice sleep so my morning forum read feels elite. Or that could just be the coffee. Hmmm. Anyway, what the hell was I saying? Oh right! Keep up the great analysis people! Should be a phenomenal day of juiced up model runs. LFG Mofo’s!! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yikes I’ll be at Wisp with my friends this weekend for an annual ski trip - coming home on Sunday to NoVa should be interesting. This after the HIGH on Saturday is going to be 7 degrees! I guess I asked the weather gods for winter weather for the weekend so - can’t complain. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Thanks. Must have ratios cause gives me 9” on .6 qpf in Yeah looks like it factors in multiple variables for SLR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 14 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Yeesh hope that isn't ice down in central N.C that would be a disaster If the Euro comes to fruition, they’re honestly screwed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah looks like it factors in multiple variables for SLR. Google AI- Key Methods for Determining Snow Ratios in NBM: Temperature-Based Algorithms: The SLR is highly dependent on boundary layer and low-level temperatures (surface to 850 mb). Generally, colder air results in higher ratios (fluffy, dry snow), while temperatures near freezing produce lower ratios (wet, dense snow). Melting Rates for Marginal Temperatures: For temperatures at or above 32°F, the NBM v4.2 incorporates idealized melting rates. The total SLR is reduced based on the ratio of melting to accumulating snow, effectively lowering the ratio if the snow melts as it falls. Dynamic/Algorithm-Based Ratios: Instead of a default 10:1, the NBM uses algorithms that consider factors such as: Wind Speed: Higher wind speeds can lead to lower ratios due to snowflake fracturing. Cloud Structure: The presence of supercooled water droplets (higher riming) vs. depositional growth influences the ratio. Ensemble Member Blending: The NBM uses output from several models (HRRR, GFS, ECMWF) to calculate a probabilistic snowfall, utilizing the best-performing models to determine the most likely ratio for a given area. Elevation Adjustments: Ratios are adjusted upward at higher elevations to account for colder, drier conditions in mountainous terrain. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 27 minutes ago, Scraff said: First cup of Irish coffee successfully downed. Duh! Overnight runs were absolute art. Big shout out to those brave souls who sacrifice sleep so my morning forum read feels elite. Or that could just be the coffee. Hmmm. Anyway, what the hell was I saying? Oh right! Keep up the great analysis people! Should be a phenomenal day of juiced up model runs. LFG Mofo’s!! At first glance I read that as " Big Stout" lol. Which reminds me I need to get some before the weekend. OK back on topic! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I’d like for models to work their way a little north today but I’m just feeling greedy. I’ll take the 1 inch qpf in DC at 10:1+ ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 That 6z Euro looked like it was going to develop some decent coastal as well. Might've been 15-20" if it had played out to its end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Nomz said: I’d like for models to work their way a little north today but I’m just feeling greedy. I’ll take the 1 inch qpf in DC at 10:1+ ratios I think the trends on the Euro the last 2 runs will probably continue and you will be happy. The big NAO settling in this weekend should slow things down and promote phasing. The look at 144 on 6z euro with a deepening low off Hatteras moving basically north with fresh arctic air in place is the kinda thing that we don't see often and can really offer us a lot of QPF with fantastic ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Nomz said: I’d like for models to work their way a little north today but I’m just feeling greedy. I’ll take the 1 inch qpf in DC at 10:1+ ratios Careful, we don’t want too much too fast. I am 90% sure the storm will come up north anyway. I’m thinking the mix line will reach as far north as EZF/SoMD despite the models saying it’ll stay south of the NC/VA border. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Careful, we don’t want too much too fast. I am 90% sure the storm will come up north anyway. I’m thinking the mix line will reach as far north as EZF/SoMD despite the models saying it’ll stay south of the NC/VA border. The north trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Hopefully we can get this thing under D5.5 today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Nomz said: I’d like for models to work their way a little north today but I’m just feeling greedy. I’ll take the 1 inch qpf in DC at 10:1+ ratios Its Tuesday, pace yourself. No one in the DMV should be clamoring for north movement just yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9z SREF way north early fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Hopefully we can get this thing under D5.5 today Yeah I’d like to stop slowing down…get this back to starting late Saturday would be nice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts