January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

To your point, just did a 24H max temp check, and ECMWF has us go below freezing at 0Z Sunday and not get above through the end of its run. In fact, many of us don't even get out of the 20s through that period. 

I think you meant 0Z Saturday

[wxmeddler]

7 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I certainly would not dismiss his opinion at all.  That said, he should share these thoughts with LWX given their threat map is at deep purple CWA wide, not sure I can remember seeing that before.

He's been in informal communications with LWX. I think they are kind of all of on the same page that have been echoed here.

[Terpeast]

26 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago" 

Well, that's kind of extreme. I'd disagree with him in that Chicago is getting the goods while we mix/ice. Certainly won't rule out some sleet here, but I'd put the snow max along the spine of the Apps through central/northern MD.

[psuhoffman]

 

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

So what about gfs being just as good, ukmet? Seems kinda like a off the hip comment 

to be fair his observation about the mid level low tracking too far NW for what we typically want is not wrong.  But there are more variables than just that.  The depth of the cold in front makes this a situation where a further NW track than typically ideal might not hurt us as much.  Remember February 2015 when a storm tracking into OHIO gave us 8-14" across our area before mixing with sleet/freezing rain, because there was arctic air in front...and there was absolutely no 50/50 or blocking with that setup...it was simple that a departing arctic high had left a shit ton (borrowing this from Randy) of cold air in place in front of it and the WAA needed to scour it out produced a ton of snow before we lost thermals.  And that would be kind of a worst case scenario here given the setup is even better.  

So on the one hand I get what he is saying...he isn't wrong about that one thing being an "issue" but I think on the whole there are factors that offset that.  Hopefully I don't get schooled by a legend here.  

[WeatherShak]

This could end up being the bigger story when it's all over 

If we get even half the storm currently modeled with those post storm temps… DC area will be shutdown for days. Had a similar type setup a few years ago and secondary roads were skating rinks for nearly a week.

[SnowenOutThere]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Trying to figure EPS on Pivotal. Generally looks really good. Less amped than Op. Comparing to 0z looks a bit drier and flatter. On the mean probably stays all snow for DC and N/W? It’s close.

One thing that (is expected with the more northern solutions) generally has decreased the likelyhood of 4+ inches over 24 hours from a near guarantee to a "mere" 80-90%

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro temps after this storm are hilarious. Lows in the negatives and wind chills down to -25 

Its actually dangerous imo. Especially for the areas that are getting freezing rain out of this. Power outages at those temps is no joke. 

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I think you meant 0Z Saturday

You're not wrong literally - that's the 24H max temp representation though, so it's looking back at the previous day (I assume). We technically go below at 0Z Saturday though, to your point. 

[wxmeddler]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well, that's kind of extreme. I'd disagree with him in that Chicago is getting the goods while we mix/ice. Certainly won't rule out some sleet here, but I'd put the snow max along the spine of the Apps through central/northern MD.

I think the Chicago thing was a bit of a joke, but he is concerned about the 850 low tracking west of us and the coastal not developing as rapidly as advertised given that partial phasing is happening over the Ozarks.

[SnowenOutThere]

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Looking at everything, I think some here are really hung up on the sleet mixing and not enough on the absolute drubbing that WAA pattern is going to bring for the thump up front. This is a setup that can rival the Feb 2014 thump in places. The initial 4hrs when snow becomes heavy too will be big beautiful dendrites in the stronger bands. 1-2”/hr rates likely with some bands >2”/hr considering the strength and depth of the FGEN and DGZ, respectively. 
 

If you can remember 2014, there was 2’ of snow in Mt. Airy and not a single model showed that until it basically on top of us. Use climo, know your area for who usually hangs on to snow the longest. This will be a crazy beatdown prior to any flip. Lowlands will mix, metros will mix, eastern shore will mix, and mix will likely make it to I-70….it is what it is. It’s the nature of an upper pattern closing off west of where we want it. However, the snow will come in hot and heavy and last for a while to bring in some great totals, the biggest of which some have seen in a decade. 
 

Thermals will be situated as we get into Friday and the NAM Nest comes into line. That’s the model I want to see. That piece of guidance usually sucks, but it does do well at showing the thermal progression while sucking otherwise. It’s gonna snow y’all!! 
 

As for Southwest VA, it sucks this shift happened so abruptly. I wasn’t anticipating THIS much of a shift, but there will be some heavy heavy snow upfront before driving sleet. It will be a high impact scenario for so many. And the cold afterwards is NO JOKE!! This isn’t going anywhere. 

Thinking that I may want to drive back up to NOVA for this one, though I probably would have some amount of difficultly getting back. That said, now that this is starting to be a coastal with the sleet/Freezing rain line setting up more SW-NE I wonder if I'd be fine. Agree that ultimately we need to wait and see what the CAMs show if the synoptic solution holds (which reasonably it will though details like level of confluence and phasing may favor a NW or SW shift). 

[HighStakes]

Forget getting above freezing. Northern MD barely ever gets above 20 through day 10 on 12z Euro.

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

One thing that (is expected with the more northern solutions) generally has decreased the likelyhood of 4+ inches over 24 hours from a near guarantee to a "mere" 80-90%

Need to see individual members to know why it dropped. Possible more suppressed solutions also returned. 

[Warm Nose]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This could end up being the bigger story when it's all over 

On top of the crippling ice, this IS going to be the story. There's going to be hundreds of thousands of people without power under an airmass that doesn't go above freezing.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, HighStakes said:

Forget getting above freezing. Northern MD barely ever gets above 20 through day 10 on 12z Euro.

It’s not hyperbole when I say this will be one of the extreme cold plunges we have seen since 2014 in these parts. With snow and ice on the ground will make travel issues for days on end. I’m bullish and think some places will see 18-22” of snow somewhere out of this, it’s just a matter of where. I expect it to occur in Northern MD by your hood across the M/D. Someone is going to get shelled. 

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

to be fair his observation about the mid level low tracking too far NW for what we typically want is not wrong.  But there are more variables than just that.  The depth of the cold in front makes this a situation where a further NW track than typically ideal might not hurt us as much.  Remember February 2015 when a storm tracking into OHIO gave us 8-14" across our area before mixing with sleet/freezing rain, because there was arctic air in front...and there was absolutely no 50/50 or blocking with that setup...it was simple that a departing arctic high had left a shit ton (borrowing this from Randy) of cold air in place in front of it and the WAA needed to scour it out produced a ton of snow before we lost thermals.  And that would be kind of a worst case scenario here given the setup is even better.  

So on the one hand I get what he is saying...he isn't wrong about that one thing being an "issue" but I think on the whole there are factors that offset that.  Hopefully I don't get schooled by a legend here.  

I think we'll know if the Chicago exaggeration has any legs (not saying they will get max but as in mixing bad along I-95) within the next 3 model cycles. As others have mentioned upper air data will be ingested sometime tonight (unclear if that's 0z or 6z) and I think that'll be the last real chance for this storm to completely change character like it did the past day. Past that we're just tracking the mesoscale interactions of where the mix line sets up. 

[osfan24]

Can someone smarter than me explain why the transfer to the coast isn’t happening sooner like we see in our HECS? You have blocking/50-50 low plus a strong arctic high. Doesn’t add up to me.

[csnavywx]

54 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

man I sure hope that freezing rain output is wrong for southern VA and NC

You aren't joking. Surface temps in the low-mid 20s with 0.1"/hr+ accretion rates will be a big problem in a hurry.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, csnavywx said:

You aren't joking. Surface temps in the low-mid 20s with 0.1"/hr+ accretion rates will be a big problem in a hurry.

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It’s not hyperbole when I say this will be one of the extreme cold plunges we have seen since 2014 in these parts. With snow and ice on the ground will make travel issues for days on end. I’m bullish and think some places will see 18-22” of snow somewhere out of this, it’s just a matter of where. I expect it to occur in Northern MD by your hood across the M/D. Someone is going to get shelled. 

For what it's worth DT agrees with you. He's saying 20+ for the Shen Valley and Western Md. Possibly pushing east of the Blue Ridge.

Really worried about the temps over the next couple weeks. Lots of retired folks out this way that are going to need help digging out. 

[StormyClearweather]

5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

You're not wrong literally - that's the 24H max temp representation though, so it's looking back at the previous day (I assume). We technically go below at 0Z Saturday though, to your point. 

Don't know if it'll load the preview, but GIF of the 24H max through the run:
 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Can someone smarter than me explain why the transfer to the coast isn’t happening sooner like we see in our HECS? You have blocking/50-50 low plus a strong arctic high. Doesn’t add up to me.

A couple pages back PSU gave the explanation to me. The 50/50 moving out quickly because of not ideal blocking. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

[csnavywx]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

Yeah, pushed the forecast out earlier than we normally do to highlight the potential here. Proper ice storms are rare in these parts and very little of this vegetation has been "tested" in the past 30+ years, so anything over 0.6-0.7 is going to start breaking stuff very quickly.

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

The cold front on Friday is really impressive. -19C at 850 is nuts for any front let alone one 36 hrs before a precip shield moves in. It could be quite bad.

[snowcane33]

44 minutes ago, Jebman said:

South Va and N NC is a total catastrophe with close to 2 inches of ice accretion in low 20s ambient conditions.

Accumulating two inches of freezing rain is considered an extreme and catastrophic weather event. While only half an inch is needed to "cripple" a region, two inches causes widespread, long-duration destruction to infrastructure and natural environments. 

The specific damages caused by this level of icing include:

• Catastrophic Power Grid Failure: Just 0.5 inches of ice can add 500 pounds of weight to a single span of power lines, which is 30 times their normal weight. At two inches, the weight is immense enough to snap not just lines, but heavy-duty utility poles and massive transmission towers. Power outages in these scenarios often last for weeks.
• Severe Tree Destruction: Two inches of ice can increase the weight of tree branches by up to 30 times. This leads to the failure of even healthy, large trees, which fall onto homes, vehicles, and roads, further damaging property and blocking emergency access.
• Structural Damage to Buildings:
  • Roof Collapse: The sheer weight of two inches of ice—especially if it accumulates on top of existing snow—can exceed the load-bearing capacity of many residential and commercial roofs, leading to collapse.
  • Ice Dams: Heavy icing causes ice dams that force water under shingles, leading to severe interior water damage, sagging gutters, and ruined insulation.

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

You aren't joking. Surface temps in the low-mid 20s with 0.1"/hr+ accretion rates will be a big problem in a hurry.

Central Va/RVA also could have real issues with freezing rain too no? 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Snow cover does wonders. Brutal ! 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It’s not hyperbole when I say this will be one of the extreme cold plunges we have seen since 2014 in these parts. With snow and ice on the ground will make travel issues for days on end. I’m bullish and think some places will see 18-22” of snow somewhere out of this, it’s just a matter of where. I expect it to occur in Northern MD by your hood across the M/D. Someone is going to get shelled. 

I shit you not, I don't think the Euro gets us above 32 for the rest of that run

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

I think a met posted recently that the Euro surface temps are "broken" and have been way too cold. 

[peribonca]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

For a little historical reference, Jan 94 had a sleet bomb storm that cemented all week thanks to ridiculously cold temps after.  

I remember that one well. It was forecasted to be a real snow storm after so many ice storms... but the precip started as sleet and remained that way the whole time from Rockville south.