January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[batmanbrad]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They take their sweet time. You'll see them about 5s after I do. WxBell still at 68

and Pivotal is still stuck at 66

[yoda]

Okay 13z NBM... I see you

 

[clskinsfan]

Man. That is a catastrophic ice storm for southern VA. Temps in the low 20s during that freezing rain. 

[bncho]

Just now, BristowWx said:

whats the surface temp?  if i may ask

low 20s

[Eskimo Joe]

Anybody got the 10:1 Euro output?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C

Euro never handles sleet well on the precip type maps 

[pazzo83]

I feel like a lot of the time with these things, the timing of the dry slot and the period in which we would mix tend to align

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Okay 13z NBM... I see you

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Anybody got the 10:1 Euro output?

 

[NorthArlington101]

Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday

[Amped]

Just now, bncho said:

A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C

Yeah clearly an error with the graphics, the transition zone is usually 70 miles. Could be bigger this time cause the waa is even higher up.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

I like the 2 mile area of sleet between the snow and the freezing rain. 

 

1 minute ago, bncho said:

A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C

Yeah I’m very skeptical of ZR vs sleet in the metro area. Doesn’t matter at this point, but will have to look at NAM soundings Friday if we still have a mixing risk. 

[Jersey Andrew]

Does this storm look like PDII type snowfall, sleet,ZR distribution areawide?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Mixing still seems to be kept at a minimum for the metros.

[umdterps29]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I actually think most of the damage is done by this point.  

It's like 6-8 hours after the precip rolls in that it switches over east of 95. Hours and hours and hours of ZR or sleet after

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Thank you. Seems like 6" - 10" from the bay to I-95, 8" - 12" west of there.

[clskinsfan]

1.5 QPF at those temps is probably realistically pushing 20 inches out here. I still think we will mix out here as well though. Insane run. 

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

 

I don't like it as much but it IS climo I guess.

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Okay 13z NBM... I see you

 

... gotta sniff the mix

[bncho]

amped

[NorthArlington101]

That's pretty much it

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, bncho said:

amped

If Dr. No is still like this after the next few runs...

[pazzo83]

man I sure hope that freezing rain output is wrong for southern VA and NC

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

amped

This looks so much more believable than anything we saw yesterday. The orientation, amounts with more N and W of DC. It's a true beatdown. Now, we just need it to hold and lead the way

[EstorilM]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

1.5 QPF at those temps is probably realistically pushing 20 inches out here. I still think we will mix out here as well though. Insane run. 

Exactly my thoughts, even sterling NWS said the same thing. I'm doing some of these QPF numbers in my head and it's kinda crazy what we're potentially looking at here.  Also zero initial melting issues, lows Sat night are frigid. 

Sterling AFD earlier:

This comes with the presumed snow-
to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the
Arctic nature of the air mass."

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

man I sure hope that freezing rain output is wrong for southern VA and NC

Location dependent but someone is going to get stomped with freezing rain. 

[dailylurker]

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

amped

Looks effectively identical to 0z's output, though definitely subtracted a bit East of DC. 

[NorthArlington101]

I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Exactly my thoughts, even sterling NWS said the same thing. I'm doing some of these QPF numbers in my head and it's kinda crazy what we're potentially looking at here.  Also zero initial melting issues, lows Sat night are frigid. 

Sterling AFD earlier:

This comes with the presumed snow-
to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the
Arctic nature of the air mass."

It's frigid for 2 weeks after that. Snow covered ground for a month probably.