batmanbrad Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: They take their sweet time. You'll see them about 5s after I do. WxBell still at 68 and Pivotal is still stuck at 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Okay 13z NBM... I see you 8 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Man. That is a catastrophic ice storm for southern VA. Temps in the low 20s during that freezing rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, BristowWx said: whats the surface temp? if i may ask low 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Anybody got the 10:1 Euro output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C Euro never handles sleet well on the precip type maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I feel like a lot of the time with these things, the timing of the dry slot and the period in which we would mix tend to align 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, yoda said: Okay 13z NBM... I see you 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Anybody got the 10:1 Euro output? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, bncho said: A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C Yeah clearly an error with the graphics, the transition zone is usually 70 miles. Could be bigger this time cause the waa is even higher up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Amped said: I like the 2 mile area of sleet between the snow and the freezing rain. 1 minute ago, bncho said: A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C Yeah I’m very skeptical of ZR vs sleet in the metro area. Doesn’t matter at this point, but will have to look at NAM soundings Friday if we still have a mixing risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Does this storm look like PDII type snowfall, sleet,ZR distribution areawide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Mixing still seems to be kept at a minimum for the metros. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I actually think most of the damage is done by this point. It's like 6-8 hours after the precip rolls in that it switches over east of 95. Hours and hours and hours of ZR or sleet after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Thank you. Seems like 6" - 10" from the bay to I-95, 8" - 12" west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1.5 QPF at those temps is probably realistically pushing 20 inches out here. I still think we will mix out here as well though. Insane run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I don't like it as much but it IS climo I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Okay 13z NBM... I see you ... gotta sniff the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 amped 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 That's pretty much it 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, bncho said: amped If Dr. No is still like this after the next few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 man I sure hope that freezing rain output is wrong for southern VA and NC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: amped This looks so much more believable than anything we saw yesterday. The orientation, amounts with more N and W of DC. It's a true beatdown. Now, we just need it to hold and lead the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 1.5 QPF at those temps is probably realistically pushing 20 inches out here. I still think we will mix out here as well though. Insane run. Exactly my thoughts, even sterling NWS said the same thing. I'm doing some of these QPF numbers in my head and it's kinda crazy what we're potentially looking at here. Also zero initial melting issues, lows Sat night are frigid. Sterling AFD earlier: This comes with the presumed snow- to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the Arctic nature of the air mass." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: man I sure hope that freezing rain output is wrong for southern VA and NC Location dependent but someone is going to get stomped with freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, bncho said: amped Looks effectively identical to 0z's output, though definitely subtracted a bit East of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, EstorilM said: Exactly my thoughts, even sterling NWS said the same thing. I'm doing some of these QPF numbers in my head and it's kinda crazy what we're potentially looking at here. Also zero initial melting issues, lows Sat night are frigid. Sterling AFD earlier: This comes with the presumed snow- to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the Arctic nature of the air mass." It's frigid for 2 weeks after that. Snow covered ground for a month probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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