January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

Yeah, UKMET is way better than 0z...by the time we do a complete flip looks like most of the real damage is done.

[87storms]

Seems like solutions are converging on at least several inches to start, so the first step in this competitive sport seems to be nearing completion. Next step is where the primary low ends up.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Gfs has what? 12-18 and Ukie is easily 6-12”… relax yall

UK is more like 8-16 before a flip for our forum. 

[StormyClearweather]

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.

The wall of high pressure is still there.  The difference is the trend has been towards more energy ejecting and a more phased amplified system which will attack that thermal boundary with WAA and press it north more...how far is the question.  Before guidance was showing a less energetic phased system which wasn't going to really move the thermal boundary much and just slide along it.  This has more upside but more fail potential also.  

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm having a hard time believing the CMC/UKMET where the primary low just runs into this dome of high pressure with ease. 

1040 HP vs 1005 LP... and the 1005 LP destroys it?? nuh uh

[yoda]

12z UKIE close up snow maps

10:1

 

KUCHERA 

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, bncho said:

1040 HP vs 1005 LP... and the 1005 LP destroys it?? nuh uh

Ud think the 1040mb High would force that 1005 mb low south..!!

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE close up snow maps

10:1

 

KUCHERA 

 

I'll take that for 2000 Alex!!!

[Solution Man]

Ukie is a smoke show, we take

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Ass whoopin @240 in gfs long range

I don't think this pattern is one and done.  But I'd sure love to get the big hit out of the way right up front.  

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE close up snow maps

10:1

 

KUCHERA 

 

This should keep people from jumping off the cliff!! .. at least till the euro comes out 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don't think this pattern is one and done.  But I'd sure love to get the big hit out of the way right up front.  

Agreed. From a winter weather perspective, there is nothing better than a sizeable snowstorm on the front side of a good pattern.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think this pattern is one and done.  But I'd sure love to get the big hit out of the way right up front.  

Back to back weekend rules? Ya let’s go

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think this pattern is one and done.  But I'd sure love to get the big hit out of the way right up front.  

I mean something this big is probably a one and done, any further snow events will be smaller.

[wxdude64]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did the UKMET show last night?

Heavy front thump followed by hours of a sleetfest.

[Inkstains]

What’s timing Sunday vs Monday. Storm vs aftermath?

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE close up snow maps

10:1

 

KUCHERA 

 

Acceptable. With all seriousness, we get buried by GFS and Ukie, and even CMC drops 8-10” on us. We are sitting good right now

[winter_warlock]

GFS-AI

 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, UKMET is way better than 0z...by the time we do a complete flip looks like most of the real damage is done.

This UKMET run is somewhat similar to the Feb 2014 storm...but colder and without that upper low part 2.  Big heavy thump up front before a huge dry slot.  And the thump wouldn't end with temps in the upper 30s and melting...temps would stay well below freezing...the dry slot would be light sleet and freezing rain.  

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The wall of high pressure is still there.  The difference is the trend has been towards more energy ejecting and a more phased amplified system which will attack that thermal boundary with WAA and press it north more...how far is the question.  Before guidance was showing a less energetic phased system which wasn't going to really move the thermal boundary much and just slide along it.  This has more upside but more fail potential also.  

I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

As others have pointed out, UK is effectively all snow with the majority of QPF as snow.

12z ops for DC

CMC: 10 ish inches of snow to ice

GFS: 10-18 inches all snow

ICON: 10 ish inches all snow 

UK: Snow to brief ice, 10-18 inches

Of course waiting on the Euro.  This is a good place to be.  Everything is showing an event where the majority of our QPF is snow.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean something this big is probably a one and done, any further snow events will be smaller.

Just like Feb 2010. Cool, noted thanks.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

1040 HP vs 1005 LP... and the 1005 LP destroys it?? nuh uh

The flow that drives the surface low up to our west is happening at the mid levels in response to what is happening to our west, the surface and the strength of the MSLP isn't really the issue.  Take a look at the mid level wind flow as the trough is phasing to our west...that is the issue on the runs that drive the primary further north.  

[stormtracker]

Gun to head, if I had to make a public forecast....I'd do 8-14 ending as sleet.    Actually I'd be too scared and wimp out to 8 to 12, but part of me would want to go 10-15 so bad

[WxUSAF]

Did GEFS get posted? Still in a range where it has utility.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.

Oh...so you just look at the pictures instead of reading.  

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gun to head, if I had to make a public forecast....I'd do 8-14 ending as sleet.    Actually I'd be too scared and wimp out to 8 to 12, but part of me would want to go 10-15 so bad

8-14” is exactly what I’ve been thinking this morning 

[TSSN+]

Franky telling it like it is 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/185m5bdygT/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[aldie 22]

It's funny watching the language morph over the last few days from suppressed to overrunning with potential redevelopment to over amped to the introduction of the word dry slot which wasn't being said previously. What's the next new word or phrase on this thing going to be?