January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, yoda said:

12z RGEM h5 and precipitation at 84

 

 

 

That sprawling HP is sick. The thing we dream of when looking for a major winter storm.

[stormtracker]

Look, regardless..we got fresh arctic air, 1046 moving in.   This is the best set up in a decade. 

I hope we don't spend half the storm "disappointed" in...our standard operating mode.   Bargaining phase here.  Help me out.

[yoda]

I see... 1016am HWO... its in all 3 sections/areas

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=HWO

 

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a high threat of a high impact winter storm Saturday
night through early Monday morning. Potential impacts include
significant travel delays, closures, and threats to life and
property. Plan ahead to minimize impact to you and your family.

Dangerously cold wind chills are also possible at times from
Friday night and through early next week.

[TSSN+]

Rgem would probably be a smoker. Not sure about the random precip gap it depicts at hour 84 over the middle of the county though lol 

[csnavywx]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll wait for the pros to chime in (and yes we know it's the NAM but we need entertainment until the real models), but the NAM honestly doesn't look that bad.  Cold looks impressive enough maybe to offset the amping a little.  Also, keep in mind, this could be 100% weenie coping at the moment too.   Probably more that.

Trending towards a flatter orientation of the thickness gradient ahead of it with cold air damming setting up faster. Small but meaningful trend. The flatter, the better. Will help inhibit the strength of the surface reflection/low of the trailing upper trough and favor coastal development a little more.

It would be even better if we could continue to get that trailing N/S wave to slow down and eject the Baja low a little faster instead of fully phasing with it. Anything to inhibit the development of the inland low and favor the coastal, basically.

[stormtracker]

ICON looking pretty decent so far.  Haven't seen 6z to compare tho, so it may be just status quo

[yoda]

Gimme - 12z ICON at 96

 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Trending towards a flatter orientation of the thickness gradient ahead of it with cold air damming setting up faster. Small but meaningful trend. The flatter, the better. Will help inhibit the strength of the surface reflection/low of the trailing upper trough and favor coastal development a little more.

It would be even better if we could continue to get that trailing N/S wave to slow down and eject the Baja low a little faster instead of fully phasing with it. Anything to inhibit the development of the inland low and favor the coastal, basically.

My man.  Thanks.   Something I thought I'd never say: Here's hoping for flatter thickness! 

[LP08]

ICON is missing the 6z run on pivotal, however, comparing to 0z, it looks to be leaving more energy behind out west, and the norther stream is "on top" of Southern Wave, vs phasing in the backside.

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

Gimme

 

ICON might staunch the bleeding?  But you know...it's the ICON  :/ 

[jayyy]

CAD signature on the ICON is filthy l

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ICON looking pretty decent so far.  Haven't seen 6z to compare tho, so it may be just status quo

Glad you moved away from really really thinking about extrapolating the NAM.

[stormtracker]

ICON gets that sleet line literally to DC SE border, but it's a damn sight better than what we've seen so far.

ICON would be perfectly acceptable for all I'd think

[psuhoffman]

The last few days have been crazy busy for me and I have not had time to scroll through 75 pages to get caught up so I apologize if any of this is redundant but some thoughts on where we are right now after looking at everything

1) I was never concerned with suppression, and frankly I never thought anything actually showed that...the runs that were south were because the energy got stuck out west and only weak waves ejected which of course would slide east under the cold dome.  That's not suppression.  There was never anything showing some wall of immovable confluence with the typical sharp northern cutoff of precip you see in true suppression.  The greenland block is centered north of ideal actually, up over northern Greenland...not Baffin, and the 50/50 is ideal...and relaxing as the wave approaches not some vortex over Maine like we see when a storm gets suppressed.  This never looked like that was the issue.  

2) However, I am also not overly concerned this turns into some non event from a north trend.  While the greenland block is north of ideal, there is one of the most impressive ridge bridges to a poleward EPO ridge that I have ever seen and a strong 50/50 feature.  There is an arctic high in the way.  And the low and mid level cold starts out really far south.  This system has a lot of similarities to the February 2007 storm but the mid level cold is penetrating about 100 miles further south in this storm.  That system I was always worried leading in because the cold really wasn't set up far enough to our south as the WAA started.  This time...there is a limit IMO to how far north this can go because the low and mid level cold is really pressing ahead of it.  

I do think we might mix, but the worst case scenario would be a result for DC and Baltimore similar to 2007 but displaced about 75-100 miles south...meaning DC could experience what Harrisburg PA got during that 2007 storm, which was about 4-6" of snow followed by 4-5" of sleet and freezing rain and in the end had 10" of a concrete glacier OTG and a major impact event.  I know everyone would prefer 2 feet of cold smoke powder, and a ton of snow is still possible, I'm just saying I don't think this can turn into some predominantly rain event...this is either a huge snowstorm, or at worst a decent snow turning into a prolific sleet/ice event. 

Right now I would lean somewhere in between, with the most likely outcome being a big snow before mixing with sleet in the cities.  

[Ji]

ICON looking pretty decent so far.  Haven't seen 6z to compare tho, so it may be just status quo

I hate the word decent. What if I said your work performance was decent. It’s like insulting
Right lol

[jayyy]

The last few days have been crazy busy for me and I have not had time to scroll through 75 pages to get caught up so I apologize if any of this is redundant but some thoughts on where we are right now after looking at everything
1) I was never concerned with suppression, and frankly I never thought anything actually showed that...the runs that were south were because the energy got stuck out west and only weak waves ejected which of course would slide east under the cold dome.  That's not suppression.  There was never anything showing some wall of immovable confluence with the typical sharp northern cutoff of precip you see in true suppression.  The greenland block is centered north of ideal actually, up over northern Greenland...not Baffin, and the 50/50 is ideal...and relaxing as the wave approaches not some vortex over Maine like we see when a storm gets suppressed.  This never looked like that was the issue.  
2) However, I am also not overly concerned this turns into some non event from a north trend.  While the greenland block is north of ideal, there is one of the most impressive ridge bridges to a poleward EPO ridge that I have ever seen and a strong 50/50 feature.  There is an arctic high in the way.  And the low and mid level cold starts out really far south.  This system has a lot of similarities to the February 2007 storm but the mid level cold is penetrating about 100 miles further south in this storm.  That system I was always worried leading in because the cold really wasn't set up far enough to our south as the WAA started.  This time...there is a limit IMO to how far north this can go because the low and mid level cold is really pressing ahead of it.  
I do think we might mix, but the worst case scenario would be a result for DC and Baltimore similar to 2007 but displaced about 75-100 miles south...meaning DC could experience what Harrisburg PA got during that 2007 storm, which was about 4-6" of snow followed by 4-5" of sleet and freezing rain and in the end had 10" of a concrete glacier OTG and a major impact event.  I know everyone would prefer 2 feet of cold smoke powder, and a ton of snow is still possible, I'm just saying I don't think this can turn into some predominantly rain event...this is either a huge snowstorm, or at worst a decent snow turning into a prolific sleet/ice event. 
Right now I would lean somewhere in between, with the most likely outcome being a big snow before mixing with sleet in the cities.  

My thoughts exactly. West of 95 is looking pretty solid for 90+% snow. Our area should be all snow

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I hate the word decent. What if I said your work performance was decent. It’s like insulting
Right lol

Altho the ICON snowfall maps are a little underwhelming considering.

**Let me clarify!  Underwhelming relative to what it appeared to be from the sfc maps...10 inches of snow is not underwhelming.

[baltosquid]

Frankly I think the ICON was close to being way better, am I crazy? It left a lot of energy behind from the Baja piece but still amped more than prior runs. I’m sure it’s possible to get that but with this Arctic front and a messier phase as depicted I think the progression could end up better. I guess I’m just wishcasting

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Altho the ICON snowfall maps are a little underwhelming considering.

They always are. Not exactly the model to look at for that stuff. 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ICON gets that sleet line literally to DC SE border, but it's a damn sight better than what we've seen so far.

ICON would be perfectly acceptable for all I'd think

 

I'll be happy when the warm nose is down near kings dominion and riding the fucking berzerker

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

CAD signature on the ICON is filthy l

All those people in here that were talking about tearing down the mountains last month should take note.

[clskinsfan]

ICON snow depth map is basically a foot from just south of DC north and west after the event.

 

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, H2O said:

 

I'll be happy when the warm nose is down near kings dominion and riding the fucking berzerker

Compared to the even more amp'd stuff......yeah, you'd be happy with the ICON

[Ephesians2]

12z ICON

[yoda]

Now its time for our fab friend, the GooFuS

[baltosquid]

ICON-EPS MSLP looks great. One signature on the TN/NC border, another on the FL panhandle, and then one right off Hatteras. At hr102

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Compared to the even more amp'd stuff......yeah, you'd be happy with the ICON

Its acceptable.  I'll take.  Me happy.  Been long time.  But its the ICON.  I'll feel better once the consistent, steady as she goes, solid as a rock GFS comes out and supports a colder solution.  

[osfan24]

Need to get the Tennessee to Myrtle or OBX transfer

[StormyClearweather]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

ICON-EPS MSLP looks great. One signature on the TN/NC border, another on the FL panhandle, and then one right off Hatteras. At hr102

QPF continues to improve as well. All of us are in the 1.0-1.2" range sound of the MD. 

[Wetbulbs88]

14 minutes ago, jayyy said:

CAD signature on the ICON is filthy l

Yeah that's absolutely gorgeous. Textbook.