January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

ICON = 20"

What a run.

DC to Baltimore buried. Wow, the trends have been great. It’s the Icon, but it’s not on its own 

[Scraff]

Why do I have a feeling we are slowly creeping towards HECSville. 

[Weather Will]

Off to a great start, what can possibly go wrong?!

[Solution Man]

About 27 hours of white smoke

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Scraff said:

Why do I have a feeling we are slowly creeping towards HECSville. 

Because we are

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Why do I have a feeling we are slowly creeping towards HECSville. 

 We haven't been to HECSville since Jan 24th 2016

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not that anyone cares per se but we now have a DCA/BWI/PHL/NYC hit. Just need Boston to complete the megalopolis quinella

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Do you think we can get any thundersnow with this setup? No idea how dynamics work behind it or what to look for in general. 

I haven’t looked too closely at that, but I would bet some slant-wise instability will be found somewhere in this. Bob showed a point sounding with a bit of MLCAPE which should promote a better opportunity for some thunder prospects. Considering the sounding Bob had, I would suspect the best chance would be across the Western Carolina’s up into Central VA within the primary 7H Frontgen pattern that materializes late-Sat PM into Sunday AM. 

[nj2va]

Geez 1.3” of QPF on ICON.  The fetch off the Gulf on the 700RH map is awesome too.

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If I understood the brief correctly, 00z 1/22 runs would be the first to ingest that data?

Those will be the biggest runs of our lives! 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON = 20"

What a run.

Oh my goodness 

[stormtracker]

Time for the GFS to do something dumb.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's honest mistakes.  I've done it, but this is why I'm sometimes "slow" or late making calls because I double and triple check before posting anything.  Just gotta slow down

 Point taken bro , I'll make sure to check it before I post 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON compared to 12Z.  Nice....

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Time for the GFS to do something dumb.

 Love ur optimism towards the GFS Randy

[poprock49]

 

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

About 27 hours of white smoke

Really glad about this; before it was looking like the meat of the storm would be overnight, and though that is still true it won't even be close to done by Sunday morning

[TowsonWeather]

I know this is banter and I know we've discussed it to some extent, but can we all just take a moment to admire the exquisite miracle of @Bob Chill getting so frustrated with our region's lack of snow that he not only basically said "I'm semi-retiring from the snow-tracking game," he up and moved to a place liable to get even less snow...annnnnd has now spent years getting pummeled into oblivion by storm after storm and looks set to profit yet again. 

No one deserves it more. Maybe the one person on this board I won't LOATHE if they get buried while I'm smoking cirrus in Towson. 

I salute you, sir. Whatever you did to please the winter gods, I thank you for (hopefully) sharing it with the rest of us this time around. I hope we are all digging out of thigh-deep drifts come Monday morning. 

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not that anyone cares per se but we now have a DCA/BWI/PHL/NYC hit. Just need Boston to complete the megalopolis quinella

Given the wind trajectory and the northern stream, I think Boston will pull it off. Hard to believe the CCB is just gonna dry up when it gets to New England like models are showing.

Nevermind Icon does show 12" for Boston.

[MillvilleWx]

Man, that run was great. I still can’t get over Nashville at 15+ inches of snow either being forecast. Their record was set in the 1890’s at 17.4” for a single storm. This is gearing up to be a potentially special storm for a large part of the country. 

[Ji]

Does Nesis only care about DC to boston---feel like this is going to be a crippling storm for much of the nation but maybe not SNE

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, poprock49 said:

 

Really glad about this; before it was looking like the meat of the storm would be overnight, and though that is still true it won't even be close to done by Sunday morning

Love watching it snow

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

ICON = 20"

What a run.

...aaand with 96 hours to go before the first flakes fly (for some of us), I wouldn't be surprised this time Friday evening we're looking at the heaviest snow axis progged W-NW-N-NE of DCA. Hello climo. We'll still get hammered for those of us in the greater DC metro region, but I do expect the northerly trends to continue, with the gradient tightening a bit and considerably lower totals farther south toward central-southern VA as the snow mixes with/changes over to sleet. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Time for the GFS to do something dumb.

Wish it wouldn’t even come out, that would be ideal.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Given the wind trajectory and the northern stream, I think Boston will pull it off. Hard to believe the CCB is just gonna dry up when it gets to New England like models are showing.

I read the AFD from Boston earlier and they sounded bull'ish.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I read the AFD from Boston earlier and they sounded bull'ish.

If its good for us, its good for Boston, and vice versa.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Nomz said:

If its good for us, its good for Boston, and vice versa.

Half of that might be true.

[TSSN+]

Gfs already noticeably west with the cut off at 30hours. This model is awful for real. 

[peribonca]

Baja low slower on GFS at 48h

[Ji]

GFS going to betray us again?

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

If its good for us, its good for Boston, and vice versa.